Paul McCann: Debating "The Rinne Effect"

"Defense First?" Did you know that this team sits 21st in the league at GA/G and has the 25th-ranked Penalty Kill?
If this is indeed Trotz's best coaching job ever then there is no question that he has to go.

I definitely don't agree with most of the excuses in this article.

Paul, your thoughts on Trotz:

Considering where the Preds sit in the standings today, it's reasonable to assume that Pekka would have stolen enough games to get the team into the playoffs. That's great. Then they'd have the honor of being taken apart by the Blues instead of Dallas or Phoenix.

I think most Preds fans are past the point where watching the team scratch and claw its way into the playoffs is enough. We've been to the playoffs. Now we want to see the team win in the playoffs. In 15 seasons that's only happened twice. As far as the playoffs go, this team is still irrelevant.

I'm personally happy that I'm not spending my money to watch the team lose in the first round again. Been there, done that. Call it apathy if you will, but it's a reality for more than just the person typing out these words.

There can be no debate that the Preds need more scoring. I had an interesting conversation with a friend last night who was wondering how much 'hidden' scoring talent the Preds might actually have if they weren't so defense oriented. Might some of our 20 goal scorers become 30 goal scorers? It's an intriguing possibility. One that we will never know the answer to under this coach.

I think you've got to give some credit for the record that this team has to Hutton for the year that he has had. Lets face it, the way Poile builds the team, and the way Trotz coaches is liken to watching grass grow. Boring boring boring. I don't know why a hockey fan would pay money to watch this team.Poile has had quite a tenure to get this team some offense and he just hasn't got it done. If they don't resign Hutton for next year I think someone else will grab him up quick. Good backups are hard to come by.

Cheerz

Considering where the Preds sit in the standings today, it's reasonable to assume that Pekka would have stolen enough games to get the team into the playoffs. That's great. Then they'd have the honor of being taken apart by the Blues instead of Dallas or Phoenix.

I think most Preds fans are past the point where watching the team scratch and claw its way into the playoffs is enough. We've been to the playoffs. Now we want to see the team win in the playoffs. In 15 seasons that's only happened twice. As far as the playoffs go, this team is still irrelevant.

I'm personally happy that I'm not spending my money to watch the team lose in the first round again. Been there, done that. Call it apathy if you will, but it's a reality for more than just the person typing out these words.

There can be no debate that the Preds need more scoring. I had an interesting conversation with a friend last night who was wondering how much 'hidden' scoring talent the Preds might actually have if they weren't so defense oriented. Might some of our 20 goal scorers become 30 goal scorers? It's an intriguing possibility. One that we will never know the answer to under this coach.
- Predaceous

Well said. Totally agree.

Considering where the Preds sit in the standings today, it's reasonable to assume that Pekka would have stolen enough games to get the team into the playoffs. That's great. Then they'd have the honor of being taken apart by the Blues instead of Dallas or Phoenix.

I think most Preds fans are past the point where watching the team scratch and claw its way into the playoffs is enough. We've been to the playoffs. Now we want to see the team win in the playoffs. In 15 seasons that's only happened twice. As far as the playoffs go, this team is still irrelevant.

I'm personally happy that I'm not spending my money to watch the team lose in the first round again. Been there, done that. Call it apathy if you will, but it's a reality for more than just the person typing out these words.

There can be no debate that the Preds need more scoring. I had an interesting conversation with a friend last night who was wondering how much 'hidden' scoring talent the Preds might actually have if they weren't so defense oriented. Might some of our 20 goal scorers become 30 goal scorers? It's an intriguing possibility. One that we will never know the answer to under this coach.
- Predaceous

"how much 'hidden' scoring talent the Preds might actually have if they weren't so defense oriented."

Clune had more TOI than Stals in DAL & last night.....

It's not our offense that kept us from the playoffs.

Shea Weber- best season of career(29)
Roman Josi - first solid year after missing about a dozen games in the beginning(23)
Seth Jones- way too young to be playing in the NHL but will be a stud. Forced to play top pairing minutes from the start due to injuries (19)
Ryan Ellis - inexperienced, finally proved his worth and potential second half of season. Should have a great year next year. (23)
Matthias Elkholm- rough start, inexperienced. Just starting to prove his capabilities.(23)
Klein- solid but gone
Del zotto- just not as good as advertised yet. Still definitely worth resigning(23)
Victor Bartley- 7th defenseman at best on most teams(26)
Ages in parentheses

I don't care who is tending goal, that blue line is terribly inexperienced. We're on pace to give up 235 or more GA. That's what kept us out of the playoffs. It's not these kids' faults either. They were just too young and inexperienced at e start of the year. Our struggles in our own end is a major reason why the puck wasn't headed the opposite direction to find the back of the net. As always, it's not Trotz 's fault or really our forwards. Our scoring isn't as bad as advertised. The defense at the beginning of the year was, and that results in fewer chances on offense. If defense was based on potential, we'd be number one. However, we're still a year or two from having the best D in the league unless we panic and bring in some wide open coach who abandons the foundation of this team. Organizationally, we're probably just now recovering from the Suter which can be placed squarely on DP. I realize people want to see high scoring, but to change our culture and become a 240 GF team, we're going to need to be a bottom 3 team for a while( think how many years in a row the blues, avs, hawks blew arse). Or we could stay the path. We will be in the 220 gf range with this roster next year with no changes. Healthy josi and maturation of blue line will almost guarantee that. If we get our GA down .5 g/game. We're in the playoffs for many years to come. Add Statsny or a vanek and we're all the more dangerous. All it takes is a hot Rinne to advance in the playoffs.

I don't think the coaching is the problem at all. The team barely missed the playoffs with the 49 million dollar man out almost the entire year. If it is the coaching, what are they paying him so much for?

I think it's the easy thing to blame the coach but you need to be careful because the grass isn't always greener. Look no further than Washington & Vancouver.

All of the D were/are 23 or younger except Weber and Bartley. Ellis had a breakout year and fully established himself as a legitimate NHLer. His game against the Penguins in March was truly defining, he shut down Malkin at even strength all night and really showed his development, not to mention those slap passes this year. Jones was 18 and will improve tremendously year after year.

I'm not sure what "type" of hockey everyone wants to see. This team is one of the hardest to play against and other teams and players know this.

The past two years have been huge disappointments for everyone but I don't think its that dire of a situation. Craig Smith looks to be on his way to a 30 goal scorer (how many posts did he hit this year?) and I expect Nick Spaling to hit 20 next season. He's finally being rewarded offensively for his fantastic defensive play.

Even with one eye I think Poile can still assess this better than Joe fan. Unless there is more push from above than we know, I fully expect Trotz to be back.

Adding a true scoring threat would be nice but it's not going to be easy. Have you seen the free agent list? Cammalleri would probably provide the best value of them all and is somehow only 31. Hutton could end up with 20 wins this season and I think they'd be wise to bring him back too.

I don't think the coaching is the problem at all. The team barely missed the playoffs with the 49 million dollar man out almost the entire year. If it is the coaching, what are they paying him so much for?

I think it's the easy thing to blame the coach but you need to be careful because the grass isn't always greener. Look no further than Washington & Vancouver.

All of the D were/are 23 or younger except Weber and Bartley. Ellis had a breakout year and fully established himself as a legitimate NHLer. His game against the Penguins in March was truly defining, he shut down Malkin at even strength all night and really showed his development, not to mention those slap passes this year. Jones was 18 and will improve tremendously year after year.

I'm not sure what "type" of hockey everyone wants to see. This team is one of the hardest to play against and other teams and players know this.

The past two years have been huge disappointments for everyone but I don't think its that dire of a situation. Craig Smith looks to be on his way to a 30 goal scorer (how many posts did he hit this year?) and I expect Nick Spaling to hit 20 next season. He's finally being rewarded offensively for his fantastic defensive play.

Even with one eye I think Poile can still assess this better than Joe fan. Unless there is more push from above than we know, I fully expect Trotz to be back.

Adding a true scoring threat would be nice but it's not going to be easy. Have you seen the free agent list? Cammalleri would probably provide the best value of them all and is somehow only 31. Hutton could end up with 20 wins this season and I think they'd be wise to bring him back too.
- brandon49

"I think it's the easy thing to blame the coach but you need to be careful because the grass isn't always greener. Look no further than Washington & Vancouver."

What about STL & Hitch? How does that play into your & Pauls theory?

"how much 'hidden' scoring talent the Preds might actually have if they weren't so defense oriented."

Clune had more TOI than Stals in DAL & last night.....
- buelleo

It's kinda like if I had a Ferrari to get to my job as a rocket scientist at NASA. I'd get there really fast and then I wouldn't have a clue what to do when I arrived. If Stals doesn't have a fast finisher coming up the ice with him, then it doesn't look like anything productive is going to come from it. He's seems to be pretty useless offensively.

"I think it's the easy thing to blame the coach but you need to be careful because the grass isn't always greener. Look no further than Washington & Vancouver."

What about STL & Hitch? How does that play into your & Pauls theory?
- buelleo

The blues have made the playoffs 3 times in the past ten years for a total of 4 rounds if I'm not mistaken. Hitch came into a wealth of talent and hasn't accomplished anything yet.

It's kinda like if I had a Ferrari to get to my job as a rocket scientist at NASA. I'd get there really fast and then I wouldn't have a clue what to do when I arrived. If Stals doesn't have a fast finisher coming up the ice with him, then it doesn't look like anything productive is going to come from it. He's seems to be pretty useless offensively.
- sbrambo

And despite his history, preds fans still think he's the friggin Swedish pavel bure

"I think it's the easy thing to blame the coach but you need to be careful because the grass isn't always greener. Look no further than Washington & Vancouver."

What about STL & Hitch? How does that play into your & Pauls theory?
- buelleo

It's not a theory. Hitchock is a very good coach. Is Hitchcock available right now to be your next coach of the Nashville Predators? No, he's busy.

Maybe one of these guys that's out there is a better coach, I'm not really debating it either way but I think there is a good reason they've all been fired. One coach had Giroux and the other had Stamkos and they're out of the NHL right now.

It's not a theory. Hitchock is a very good coach. Is Hitchcock available right now to be your next coach of the Nashville Predators? No, he's busy.

Maybe one of these guys that's out there is a better coach, I'm not really debating it either way but I think there is a good reason they've all been fired. One coach had Giroux and the other had Stamkos and they're out of the NHL right now.
- brandon49

Well your right. We might not do any better. So lets just keep with what we've had for 15 years.

PS - thanks for joining today.

You know why Clune has more TOI? Because he's good enough to kill penalties. Stalberg? Not so much. I don't know how many times he can turn over the puck at the opposing team's blue line in a single game, any coach would get sick of it. There is a reason the Hawks let this guy walk and it wasn't just money.

You know why Clune has more TOI? Because he's good enough to kill penalties. Stalberg? Not so much. I don't know how many times he can turn over the puck at the opposing team's blue line in a single game, any coach would get sick of it. There is a reason the Hawks let this guy walk and it wasn't just money.
- brandon49

" I don't know how many times he can turn over the puck at OUR blue line"

Same thing can be said about Jones....

Sorry about the joining comment - that was rude.

" I don't know how many times he can turn over the puck at OUR blue line"

Same thing can be said about Jones....

Sorry about the joining comment - that was rude.
- buelleo

No worries, I was bored and wanted to write my opinion on the internet too. Jones definitely had his ups and downs but my goodness he was 18 and playing crazy minutes. You could see he hit a wall about mid season and that's when they moved him back to the third pair. It worked out ok though because it allowed Ellis to be showcased and it's when he really emerged.

No worries, I was bored and wanted to write my opinion on the internet too. Jones definitely had his ups and downs but my goodness he was 18 and playing crazy minutes. You could see he hit a wall about mid season and that's when they moved him back to the third pair. It worked out ok though because it allowed Ellis to be showcased and it's when he really emerged.
- brandon49

The point is Trotzy wont play Stal & DZ (more offensive players) b/c he says the are a D liability, yet Jones (turnovers), Ek (high -) and Ny (high -) get consistent minutes.

Why did we trade KK?

I think the Kevin Klein deal was strictly to clear salary space for the upcoming seasons. Unless Del Zotto all of a sudden became a stud I think they had 0 intention of resigning him. Since he is an RFA, they can either trade his rights or get compensation when he is signed elsewhere which is 100% what I think they had planned the whole time. He is a redundant piece for this team but one that does have value in the NHL.

Being a right shot, Klein became expendable with the drafting of Jones and emergence of Ellis and while they had a partner who could take on that contract and provide good value they were wise to trade him when they did. In the off-season I would assume they try to sign a free agent, left handed version of Klein.

As for Jones and Ekholm, they didn't really have anyone else to play at the time. They did well and got a lot of experience and Ekholm has gotten insanely better this year.

Stalberg unfortunately just hasn't been that good. He gives the puck up in the offensive zone and Ovechkins around the D zone. Whenever they play him with offensive guys he's always the weakest link. He probably hasn't been given a super fair shot in regards to powerplay time though. Wilson spent a heck of a lot of time out there to only have 5 pp pts all year.

There can be no debate that the Preds need more scoring. I had an interesting conversation with a friend last night who was wondering how much 'hidden' scoring talent the Preds might actually have if they weren't so defense oriented. Might some of our 20 goal scorers become 30 goal scorers? It's an intriguing possibility. One that we will never know the answer to under this coach.
- Predaceous

This is something I had often thought about too. Over the Olympic break I did a small study comparing a Predators player's points per game during his time in Nashville compared to his points per game during time on other teams and I found the results almost shocking.

In column B, you can see their points per game on other teams and in C their points per game with the Preds. In the difference column, gold means they scored more on the Preds and pink means elsewhere. For players who were true scorers, I added a few of their notable teams in the space to the right.

http://i.imgur.com/bJgfpK6.jpg




You can take away what you want from it but simply put the only players who have truly had better scoring success are Suter, Franson and Hartnell. As big as the Suter number may look, its a 14 pt improvement over 82 games. He's a great player and pretty much runs the show in MN, there is no doubting his skill. Franson sees a lot of ice and PP time in Toronto and Hartnell is a really good player who got shipped out unwillingly at the ripe age of 25. Otherwise players talents have seemingly been maximized in Nashville. It will be the most interesting to revisit this when the next wave of younger players has moved on.

Unfortunately Paul, this coaching staff has used the injury excuse for years. While that has been a realty.......we haven't had a plan in place which it appears other teams have. Maybe this also goes back to not drafting well, lack of development, or just maybe.......The System ?

I think the Kevin Klein deal was strictly to clear salary space for the upcoming seasons. Unless Del Zotto all of a sudden became a stud I think they had 0 intention of resigning him. Since he is an RFA, they can either trade his rights or get compensation when he is signed elsewhere which is 100% what I think they had planned the whole time. He is a redundant piece for this team but one that does have value in the NHL.

Being a right shot, Klein became expendable with the drafting of Jones and emergence of Ellis and while they had a partner who could take on that contract and provide good value they were wise to trade him when they did. In the off-season I would assume they try to sign a free agent, left handed version of Klein.

As for Jones and Ekholm, they didn't really have anyone else to play at the time. They did well and got a lot of experience and Ekholm has gotten insanely better this year.

Stalberg unfortunately just hasn't been that good. He gives the puck up in the offensive zone and Ovechkins around the D zone. Whenever they play him with offensive guys he's always the weakest link. He probably hasn't been given a super fair shot in regards to powerplay time though. Wilson spent a heck of a lot of time out there to only have 5 pp pts all year.
- brandon49

But KK was actually pretty cheap and relatively speaking getting cheaper each year.

But KK was actually pretty cheap and relatively speaking getting cheaper each year.
- predswilrule

He was maybe a little bit overpaid 2.9 mil per for the next 4 seasons but both Ekholm and Ellis get new contracts this off-season. Both of their new contracts combined will should only slightly surpass that number and Jones has 2 more years on a rookie salary. I loved Klein as a player but for a non playoff team who has to cut a huge check to Mr Weber during the offseason, any salary dump helps in the end.