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Debating "The Rinne Effect"

April 11, 2014, 11:49 AM ET [28 Comments]
Paul McCann
Nashville Predators Blogger •Predators Radio Network • RSSArchiveCONTACT
We at SlapShot Radio are very excited to announce a series of Wednesday night Playoff Watch Parties. We will be broadcasting the show live at 7pm while watching playoff action at Tavern 96, located at Bridgestone Arena. Come on out and talk playoff hockey with Pete Weber and I as we enjoy the great hospitality at Tavern 96. Starting this Wednesday night at 7pm… More details to come on the SSR Facebook page and slapshotradio.com.

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If you are looking for a team that has decided to phone it in after being mathematically eliminated on Tuesday, look somewhere else as the Nashville Predators relished their role as spoilers last night in a 2-0 shutout of the Phoenix Coyotes in a game the ‘Yotes desperately needed to remain close in the playoff hunt. The Preds got goals from Craig Smith and Patric Hornqvist, each scoring their 21st of the year. The shutout was Pekka Rinne’s second since returning from a 50+ game absence due to a hip infection that effectively derailed the Predators season. Rinne’s win also gave him the franchise record for career wins by a goaltender and left Pred Nation wondering what could’ve been.

One of the more hotly debated topics over the past month among the media and hockey people that regularly assemble at Bridgestone Arena has been the real impact of Pekka Rinne’s injury. The factions are very clear, and very clearly divided.

There is a contingent that staunchly defends the notion that Rinne’s injury had nothing to do with the Predators performance, after all, Rinne can’t score goals. The other side contends that Rinne’s injury had a huge impact on the play of this team and exposed a real issue with goaltending depth in the organization.

It is my contention that Pekka Rinne’s hip infection is not the only reason… but a major contributing factor in why the Predators are planning vacations right now instead of game planning the first round of the playoffs. Call me a homer, call me whatever you want, but I believe there is solid reasoning behind this…

Stats – Rinne’s career numbers indicate a .916 save percentage and a 2.41 goals against. The team’s GAA for the last two full seasons (10/11 and 11/12) were at 2.32 and 2.50… this season? 2.81… 25 more goals against… apply the same GAA (and notice I’m using the higher 2.50 number) to this season? Nashville’s goal differential shrinks to a -7, still not great... but stay with me here...

Steals – How many games does Pekka Rinne “steal” over a season? Three games, five, maybe even seven? I realize this is highly subjective, but I'll go with the middle, I think that five games is a reasonable number. Five games where Pekka Rinne was the difference between winning and losing, that’s 10 points, putting the Predators in a probably clinched wild card slot. “Five’s too many…” I hear you say. OK, reduce that number to three… the Predators would be alone in the second wild card spot with two games to play and in control of their destiny.

“Halo” Effect – Can you say that the Nashville Predators play better in front of Pekka Rinne? Does an elite goaltender give confidence to the players in front of him? Does “The Eraser” make the breakouts a little quicker? The first pass has a little more pace? The green light to pinch a little brighter, because of who is behind you? In a nutshell… can the play of your goaltender drive better offense? Ask any coach and he will tell you the answer to that question is “yes!” Can I quantify the impact? Nope… but you can look at the record of this team with and without Rinne in the lineup. With Pekka Rinne on the active roster… the Predators are 15-10-3 this season. That’s 1.17 points per game. While Rinne was on IR, the team went 21-22-9 for .98 points per game.

If you assume that the team would perform at the same points per game level and I believe that is a safe assumption, with a healthy Pekka Rinne all season. You simply have to do the math... 1.17 points times 82 games equals 95.94 points, which would have the team safely in the playoffs. Keep in mind… that doesn’t even quantify the “Halo” Effect on the offense, all of these numbers assume that there is not a single goal more scored, no improvement in shootout results, nothing on the offensive side of the puck whatsoever.

Again, as a mentor of mine always said… “figure lie and liars figure” but what I laid out above is a pretty strong case for the value of a goaltender like Pekka Rinne. The simple fact that the Predators remained in contention for so long given all the numbers I talked about may make a case for something else…

It may make a case that this season may have been one of Barry Trotz’s best performances as the Predators head coach. I know the torch and pitchfork brigade will flame me for this, screaming that the only problem this team has is Barry Trotz's "system," but I’m just not sure that a coaching change is what this team needs, that being said… it may indeed be what this team gets.

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As a coda to the above... I will not hide my head in the sand and say no improvement needs to happen on offense with this team. There are plenty of players on this version of the Predators in which more was expected... and those expectations were not realized. But Top 30 NHL scorers don't grow on trees, and they don't move from team-to-team very often... scoring by committee has worked in the past for this team, but perhaps it is a limitation that may prevent the franchise from getting to the next level.

Let's face it... this team has two elite players in Rinne and Shea Weber, an "almost-there" elite player in Roman Josi, a "potentially" elite player in Seth Jones. This team's personnel makeup drives a "defense first" mentality. To get to the next level, it needs a couple of those elite-type players on the forward corps...

Until that need is addressed, "system" is a useless discussion.

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Tomorrow night is the last home game of the season. The Chicago Blackhawks are in town, and many a Predator season ticket holder has made a substantial payment on next year’s season tickets by selling their ducats to eager Blackhawk fans in their fresh, clean, new jerseys, ready to swell the tax revenue (especially from liquor sales and bail) in Music City. It will be very nice of the large group of Blackhawk fans to come to Smashville and attempt to recreate the home atmosphere from the United Center. That atmosphere has paid big dividends for the Blackhawks in this year’s season series with the Predators. :-) (sarcasm /off)

The Predators have already won the season series by sweeping two at the UC over the past four weeks and splitting the two in Smashville.

Perhaps the Preds might want to stay at a hotel tonight to complete the experience... I'm just sayin'.

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Random Notes

- You have to appreciate the effort put out last night by the Predators, after a bitterly disappointing loss to Dallas.

- The introduction of Olympic gold-medalist Scott Hamilton’s involvement in the new Ford Ice Center that is currently under construction is a great thing for developing high-level skaters in Middle Tennessee. There are excellent schools at the other rinks in town, but having an Olympic champion head one up takes it to another level.

- Ten years ago today was the first playoff win in franchise history. Tomas Vokoun stopped 41 shots in a 3-1 win over Detroit.

- Seven years ago today, the Predators were involved in their first multi-overtime playoff game… the home playoff opener against San Jose.

- So much for the Shanahammer… Brendan Shanahan has accepted the job of running the Toronto Maple Leafs.

- St. Louis has to be worried after TJ Oshie was knocked out of last night’s game by Minnesota Wild forward Mike Rupp. Rupp was issued a match penalty and should get ready for a suspension.

- Mark your calendar for Saturday May 3rd for Petey’s 5K Face-Off, the annual run/walk to support the Peterson for Parkinsons Foundation. It was a blast to do it last year so make sure to join the SlapShot Radio team for this fun event. More information is available at the PFP Website.

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Also... make sure to "like" SlapShot Radio on Facebook... here's the link.

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SlapShot Radio, Join Pete Weber and I as we chat with hockey’s best, every Wednesday night at 7pm on 102.5 the Game and the SlapShot Radio Network. We return for our playoff run on Wednesday April 16th and we are live from Tavern 96 at Bridgestone Arena.

Don’t forget to visit our season’s advertisers… The Wine Shoppe at Green Hills, Dr. Jane Bacon at Hermitage Family and Cosmetic Dentistry (615-872-7762), Nolensville Collision Repair Center and Burger Republic, check their excellent menu out at their website, Defend Quality… Burger Republic.

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