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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Cap Update Pt 2, A Look at Lower Round Draftees
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Jimmygrazz
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 04.23.2010

Jun 26 @ 11:31 AM ET
#1 They have to dump Shelly. With the team being so tight up against the cap, that 1.1 will come in handy. The guy only played 30 games last year.

#2 The only big move I see them making is a trade for Ryan. I can see them trading Mez and something for him. They will only do that after July 1st when they see who they can sign to replace Mez.

#3 I hope they let this kid develop. Let him play in college and then in the AHL for a few years. I think if BOB would have had a year or even 2 in the AHL he would be much better than he is right now. You can't let a young goalie be a backup in the NHL. They need to play, even if it is in the AHL
leon neon
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: GA
Joined: 02.16.2009

Jun 26 @ 11:31 AM ET
So here is where the lineup stands...

Hartnell-Giroux-___________
Simmonds-Briere-Schenn
Wellwood-Couturier-Read
Rinaldo-Talbot-___________
Shelley

Coburn-Grossman
Timonen-Schenn
Meszaros-_________
Lilja

Bryzgalov
__________



Does wellwood make the jump from a 4th line role to 3rd line minutes this year or is he still considered a 4th line winger? I think he is gonna turn into a very solid 3rd line energy type player for this team this year. I peg him as a 3rd liner.

This leaves us with a need for a goal scoring winger, 4th line winger, puck moving d-man, and backup goalie....

Going to be an interesting next 1-2 weeks!

- Flyers2821


UFA/RFA: Jagr, Voracek, Sestito, and Harry Z

Homer probably has resigning Voracek high on the list (unless he is traded)... So, he'd be in the top 6. Jagr is top 6 guy, but a-wait-and-see before signing to see if anything else is available (worth more than Jagr). So, either Jagr or a replacement should moving Wellwood back to the 4th line to battle out the winger spots with Rinaldo, Shelley, Sestito, and Harry Z. Unless Jagr's replacement involves a trade with another forward.

UFA/RFA: Carle, Bourdon

Homer has penciled in Carle... But, who knows. Bourdon will be signed when all is said and done... or traded for peanuts (ie. cap space move).
Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jun 26 @ 11:32 AM ET
Interesting where their cap falls if they...

1. Waive Shelley
2. Sign Parise (10 years $70 mill?)
3. Sign Biron (same as his last years cap)

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER

FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Zach Parise ($7.000m)
Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Danny Briere ($6.500m)
Eric Wellwood ($0.580m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / _________________

DEFENSEMEN
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / ___________________
Andreas Lilja ($0.738m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)

GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.667m)
Martin Biron ($0.875m)
------

SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $65,593,373; BONUSES: $2,705,000
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $4,706,627


This would almost certainly lead to Voracek being traded and $4.7 mill for another d-man and a winger.

Maybe trade Voracek and Bourdon for a puck moving d-man?

Very possible.
aosplayo
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 01.14.2008

Jun 26 @ 11:33 AM ET
I agree.

I have a feeling they miss on Parise, but answer with trading for Ryan.

- flyersfan51




I think if Jake was willing to come down on his price (I have no idea what it is) and do a longer term deal with the Flyers this trade talk to Anaheim would go away quickly.

They like Ryan, but I think if they can quasi-lock in Jake for a few years they could do that. I doubt Jake would wanna go to Anaheim, so maybe this is posturing.

Then again, they love Ryan, who knows, just an idea.
flyersfan51
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, NJ
Joined: 10.04.2006

Jun 26 @ 11:36 AM ET
Interesting where their cap falls if they...

1. Waive Shelley
2. Sign Parise (10 years $70 mill?)
3. Sign Biron (same as his last years cap)

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER

FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Zach Parise ($7.000m)
Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Danny Briere ($6.500m)
Eric Wellwood ($0.580m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / _________________

DEFENSEMEN
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / ___________________
Andreas Lilja ($0.738m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)

GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.667m)
Martin Biron ($0.875m)
------

SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $65,593,373; BONUSES: $2,705,000
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $4,706,627


This would almost certainly lead to Voracek being traded and $4.7 mill for another d-man and a winger.

Maybe trade Voracek and Bourdon for a puck moving d-man?

Very possible.

- Flyers2821


I'd be happy with that.
mace14
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: springfield, PA
Joined: 12.27.2007

Jun 26 @ 11:36 AM ET
Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Cap Update Pt 2, A Look at Lower Round Draftees
- bmeltzer

I know a lot of guys love matt carle but if the flyers didnt sign him and went after Justin Schultz to take his place wouldnt this work out better for the flyers and there cap situation? I have never liked carle as a player and dont think he is worth more or even close to what Braydon Coburn is worth to this team (the playoffs really showed this). Carle gets a ton of ice time and a lot on the power play so his point total is not that impressive. I still cant figure out why you have a guy on the point of your power play whos shot tops out at 45mph.
BaldRich
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Kutztown, PA
Joined: 12.16.2011

Jun 26 @ 11:38 AM ET
Kind of get the feeling this is kinda how things are sitting right now offensively...

Plan A: Sign Paris:
Plan B: Trade for Ryan
Plan C: Re-sign Voracek

- Flyers2821[/quote

Plan C: P.A. Parenteau, Chris Kelly ,Alexi Ponikarovsky << 1 of 3

Plan B: Jason Garrison, Sheldon Souray << 1 of 2

Plan A: Scott Clemmensen
Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jun 26 @ 11:38 AM ET
I'd be happy with that.
- flyersfan51


Would put them right up against the cap in the offseason but once they can put #20 on LTIR that gives them a good bit of wiggle room throughout the season
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jun 26 @ 11:39 AM ET
Great read, Bill. Thanks for supplying us with good hockey articles on a nigh-daily basis. It helps stave off the offseason blues.

As for the Flyers, at this juncture I would prefer they stand pat. Re-sign Carle and Voracek and stand pat. They will still make noise, the youngsters will grow and improve, and (barring injuries) they can hit 100 points again and hopefully go deep in the playoffs.
flyersfan51
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, NJ
Joined: 10.04.2006

Jun 26 @ 11:41 AM ET
I think if Jake was willing to come down on his price (I have no idea what it is) and do a longer term deal with the Flyers this trade talk to Anaheim would go away quickly.

They like Ryan, but I think if they can quasi-lock in Jake for a few years they could do that. I doubt Jake would wanna go to Anaheim, so maybe this is posturing.

Then again, they love Ryan, who knows, just an idea.

- aosplayo


I like both -- but I'm guessing Jake is going to get around 3.5 and I think with ryan at 5.1, he's the better player for the money.....but I hope they could sign Jake to a long term deal like 3-4 so they don't go through this every year
leon neon
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: GA
Joined: 02.16.2009

Jun 26 @ 11:41 AM ET
Trade jake mezzy for ryan
Sign Schultz
Sign Peter muller
Resign carle
Sign biron

Schenn g Ryan
Hartnell Danny simmer
Muller coots read
Wellwood talbot sestito
Carle schenn
Coby Schultz
Kimmo grossman
Bryz
Biron

- griouxmvp2012


Mueller was $2.5MM last year looking for a raise. Also, I'm not sold on Talbot centering the 4th line. I like him better as a winger. If we had the money to spend... I'd pick up a good experienced 4th line center instead of Mueller, and surround him with rookies (Rinaldo/Sestito/or Harry). And, put Talbot on the 3rd line wing with Coots and Read.



flyersfan51
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, NJ
Joined: 10.04.2006

Jun 26 @ 11:42 AM ET
Would put them right up against the cap in the offseason but once they can put #20 on LTIR that gives them a good bit of wiggle room throughout the season
- Flyers2821


i'm so confused when it comes to the cap -- some people say they have a little more than 3 to play with after signing carle and jake......some say we have the money for both ryan and parise....who the hell knows.
aosplayo
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 01.14.2008

Jun 26 @ 11:42 AM ET
I like both -- but I'm guessing Jake is going to get around 3.5 and I think with ryan at 5.1, he's the better player for the money.....but I hope they could sign Jake to a long term deal like 3-4 so they don't go through this every year
- flyersfan51




Yea, and on the other side of that, maybe they do just wanna trade for Ryan but Anaheim hesistates to take Jake for that very reason that he won't sign a longer term deal.


flyersfan51
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, NJ
Joined: 10.04.2006

Jun 26 @ 11:43 AM ET
I know a lot of guys love matt carle but if the flyers didnt sign him and went after Justin Schultz to take his place wouldnt this work out better for the flyers and there cap situation? I have never liked carle as a player and dont think he is worth more or even close to what Braydon Coburn is worth to this team (the playoffs really showed this). Carle gets a ton of ice time and a lot on the power play so his point total is not that impressive. I still cant figure out why you have a guy on the point of your power play whos shot tops out at 45mph.
- mace14


I don't think Schultz wants to come here.
FlyerMike18
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.07.2009

Jun 26 @ 11:44 AM ET
I know a lot of guys love matt carle but if the flyers didnt sign him and went after Justin Schultz to take his place wouldnt this work out better for the flyers and there cap situation? I have never liked carle as a player and dont think he is worth more or even close to what Braydon Coburn is worth to this team (the playoffs really showed this). Carle gets a ton of ice time and a lot on the power play so his point total is not that impressive. I still cant figure out why you have a guy on the point of your power play whos shot tops out at 45mph.
- mace14


i would think that if they opted to bring in schultz (making the big assumption that he wants to play in philly) and let carle walk, it would be with an eye toward the future. bringing him in and expecting him to be able to perform as well as carle this season without ever having seen him play an nhl game would be a pretty big gamble, imo. if they made that move, i'd have to think it meant that they are more concerned about years beyond this one and felt that schultz was worth adding from a long term perspective
flyersfan51
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, NJ
Joined: 10.04.2006

Jun 26 @ 11:45 AM ET
Yea, and on the other side of that, maybe they do just wanna trade for Ryan but Anaheim hesistates to take Jake for that very reason that he won't sign a longer term deal.
- aosplayo


touche
leon neon
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: GA
Joined: 02.16.2009

Jun 26 @ 11:49 AM ET
ideally i'd like to just sign Parise -- but I highly doubt it so I'd do this:

Read/Meszaros and a 2nd rounder for Ryan
sign Schultz to replace Meszaros.

- flyersfan51


Sounds good to me, but I'd sign Schultz before making the trade... I have seen some wild trade proposals for Ryan, but I think his trade value won't be too high. I assume he'll be traded, and as others have stated - if it's to a team other than the Flyers - he'll play out his contract (3yrs) then sign with Philly. No team will trade the farm for a guy who is probably not going to resign after 3yrs.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 26 @ 11:50 AM ET
I don't think Schultz wants to come here.
- flyersfan51



Neither does Nash, Parise and Suter, but that doesn't seem to be stopping people from bringing their names up over and over and over.

Ryan is the only one who the Flyers have a shot at.
flyersfan51
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, NJ
Joined: 10.04.2006

Jun 26 @ 11:52 AM ET
Neither does Nash, Parise and Suter, but that doesn't seem to be stopping people from bringing their names up over and over and over.

Ryan is the only one who the Flyers have a shot at.

- Tomahawk


I think Parise would come here....I haven't read anything stating otherwise....if you have, i'd love to read it.
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jun 26 @ 11:54 AM ET
Neither does Nash, Parise and Suter, but that doesn't seem to be stopping people from bringing their names up over and over and over.

Ryan is the only one who the Flyers have a shot at.

- Tomahawk



stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jun 26 @ 11:57 AM ET
Neither does Nash, Parise and Suter, but that doesn't seem to be stopping people from bringing their names up over and over and over.

Ryan is the only one who the Flyers have a shot at.

- Tomahawk


Getting Ryan is even a long shot. I believe they want Schenn and the Flyers refuse to give him up. So looks like they can shop Ryan elsewhere if thats the case.

Flyers are in good shape even if they dont land a Nash, Parise, or Ryan.
flyersfan51
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, NJ
Joined: 10.04.2006

Jun 26 @ 12:02 PM ET
Getting Ryan is even a long shot. I believe they want Schenn and the Flyers refuse to give him up. So looks like they can shop Ryan elsewhere if thats the case.

Flyers are in good shape even if they dont land a Nash, Parise, or Ryan.

- stveshdy


agreed -- unless Pissburgh gets both Suter and Parise.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 26 @ 12:02 PM ET
I think Parise would come here....I haven't read anything stating otherwise....if you have, i'd love to read it.
- flyersfan51



He already came out and said he won't go to the Rangers under any circumstances, so it's safe to assume that he'll be just as reluctant to jump ship to the Devils' other chief rival.

Even if there was a slim chance he would consider becoming a Flyer, they can't compete with the amount of money the Wild are going to throw out there, nor can the Flyers compete with the lure of having linemates like Crosby (a fellow Shattuck St. Mary's alum) and/or Malkin.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jun 26 @ 12:02 PM ET
agreed -- unless Pissburgh gets both Suter and Parise.
- flyersfan51


I dont believe there is anyway they can land both players. They still have to do new deals with Crosby, Malkin, and Letang.
Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jun 26 @ 12:04 PM ET
i'm so confused when it comes to the cap -- some people say they have a little more than 3 to play with after signing carle and jake......some say we have the money for both ryan and parise....who the hell knows.
- flyersfan51


Utilize CapGeek. It gets you pretty close, just doesn't account for certain things but it gets you pretty close to the real number.

And FYI, everyone acts like they know but they don't. There is a reason guys get paid so much to be capologists. Just understanding it is more than half the battle.
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