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Meltzer's Musings: Cap Update Pt 2, Stolarz

June 26, 2012, 10:25 AM ET [646 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Barring additional trades to create more salary cap space, the Flyers really do not have much cap room available that would enable them to do much beyond re-signing their own free agents. When I took a closer look at what they need to accomplish versus how much space the club has available, I realized that the team is relatively limited in what it can as of now in free agency unless it moves out more salary.

According to Capgeek.com, the Flyers currently have $11,481,627 of cap space to work with beneath the temporary $70.3 million cap for 2012-13. This does not include a long-term injured reserve allowance for Chris Pronger come October. For now, Pronger's $4.9 million salary counts on the cap.

However, over the summer, a team can exceed the cap by a maximum of 10 percent (this summer, up to $77.3 million worth of salary). It's allowed, but is not advisable. What ends up happening in cases where a team is forced to shed lot of salary to get under the cap by opening night is that the team ends up having to take pennies-on-the-dollar trade returns.

If the higher summer maximum figure is used, you also have to re-add veteran players whom the Flyers are compelled to carry on their summer cap such as Matt Walker ($1.7 million) and Oskars Bartulis ($600,000).

So let's just stick to the $70.3 million ceiling and $11,481,267 of cap space pre-Pronger LTIR as the operating figures. That cap space is based upon the holdover contracted players who were on the roster at the end of the 2011-12 regular season.

Now, it is possible that a bonus cushion may be re-instituted for next season's cap whenever a new collective bargaining agreement is reached. As of now, however, one cannot simply assume that there will be a bonus cushion. For that reason, as of now, the Flyers have to calculate Brayden Schenn's cap hit as $3.11 million rather than $1.77 million (there is a discrepancy between Capgeek and a 2011 report from Darren Dreger as to what is entailed in Schenn's second season bonuses).

Got all that? OK, now let's start with $11,481,267 of cap space and:

1) Subtract a Matt Carle re-signing and call it a $4.75 M cap hit
2) Subtract a Jakub Voracek re-signing and call it a $3.0 M cap hit
4) Subtract a free agent backup goalie signing and call it an $800,000 cap hit
5) Subtract a Marc-Andre Bourdon re-signing and call it about $975,000
6) Subtract a Tom Sestito re-signing and call it about $650,000

With no bonus cushion, that would leave the team with $1,306,627 under the $70.3 million cap before you figure in Pronger's LTIR.

OK, so LTIR allows a team to exceed the cap if necessary by up to the difference between the amount of available cap space ($1,306,627) and the injured player's cap hit ($4,921,429 for Pronger). If the Flyers were to use the maximum, they would have $3.61 million of cap space.

If the Flyers waived Jody Shelley before the season -- which may happen this year but did not a year ago -- the available cap space grows to $2,406,627 before dipping into to LTIR. If they do no intend to carry Andreas Lilja again next season, that would be $737,500 of extra space, pre-Pronger.

If you notice, however, the list of moves above does not include re-signing Jaromir Jagr or bringing in a similarly-priced replacement. As of right now, that would eat up all remaining cap space and compel the club to dip into LTIR space in order to absorb the contract.


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Yesterday afternoon, I heard back from two of my scouting contacts -- one based in Ontario, the other in Sweden -- regarding their views on the Flyers' 2nd-to-7th round draft picks. I also dug a little deeper to find other information on these players.

We'll start today with goaltender Anthony Stolarz, whom the Flyers selected with the second-round pick (45th overall) acquired from Columbus in the Sergei Bobrovsky trade the previous day. The pick was made based on the recommendation of Neil Little, as well as Stolarz's impressive showing at the NHL Scouting Combine.

Nicknamed "Stollie the goalie", the personable 6-foot-5 New Jersey native's game is extremely raw but the combination of his size and athleticism convinced the Flyers to draft the fourth-ranked North American goalie above Finnish goaltender Joonas Korpisalo. The consensus top-three goalies in the draft (Andrei Vasilevski, Malcolm Subban and Oscar Dansk) were already off the board by the time the Flyers' second-round pick came up.

Stolarz played at a low level of competition the last two years, but performed well. He spent last season with the Corpus Christi IceRays of the North American Hockey League, posting a 2.84 goals-against average and .920 save percentage. He is headed to the University of Nebraska Omaha next season. As such, the Flyers will have up to four years to evaluate whether to sign him to an entry-level contract.

Conversely, if they had drafted Korpisalo, the Flyers would have only had two years to evaluate Korpisalo's readiness and sign him to an ELC before losing his rights.

If and when Stolarz is eventually signed to an ELC, he would likely need one or two full seasons in the AHL before being NHL ready. Thus, he could be as much as 5 or 6 years away from being in position to challenge for a job with the big club.

The good news: He will still only be 24 years in 2018, which is right about the age where many NHL starters start to come in their own.

Stolarz self-reports his goaltending style being on the mold of late-blooming two-time Vezina finalist Pekka Rinne. However, he grew up idolizing Martin Brodeur.

Scout #1: "I have not personally scouted Stolarz, but what I can say is that goalies take longer to develop and big goalies sometimes take even longer. I don't think it's a bad thing to take a big, athletic kid who is headed to college. Did [the Flyers] reach for this pick? Not really. It's not about where other teams have him ranked, it's where your team has him that matters. They trusted their scouts who saw him play and they liked him. Maybe he would have been there later in the draft, maybe not. They didn't want a take chance. Like I said, you never know with young goalies. Right now, he might be behind some of the other guys, but a few years from now, he might end up being better. Obviously, there are some good tools to work with here."

Scout #2: "Beyond the top three goalies, there really wasn't one goalie this year who was clearly ahead of the rest of the pack. But that changes from year to year after the draft."

Coming tomorrow: A look at defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere.

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