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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: From Staal To Sutter And Beyond: The Evolution of the Penguins Third Line
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sammy87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: CO
Joined: 05.05.2011

Oct 1 @ 1:49 PM ET
Stats not only lie, they deceive.
- hardnosed


This.
s0rcerer1984
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: United States, VA
Joined: 07.03.2008

Oct 1 @ 1:49 PM ET
In my opinion:

No Thank You Category:
- Marleau: Already 35 & signed for 3 more seasons (including this one) at $6.66M/yr.

Not Gonna Happen Category:
- Kuznetsov: 22yrs old & going to be a stud; no way Wash. lets him get away.
- Erne:19yrs old & no reason for Tampa to trade him. Also, he isn't NHL ready so wouldn't address the Top-6 F hole.

Would Really Be Nice, But Very Ulikely Category:
- Kane: Tons of skill, youg, & signed long-term at a reasonable Cap Hit.
- Eberle: Tons of skill, young, & signed long-term at areasonable Cap Hit.
- Tatar: Not really sure why Det. would move him. Younger player & signed to a reasonable contract.

Actually Could Happen Category
- Perron: Younger at age 26 & could become expendable in Edm. Plus, if Edm. continues to suck, someone has got to be moved for a Dman.
- Sharp: Older, but not too old. Chcago is going to have to move a big contract at somepoint w/ Kruger, Saad, & various s on D needing to be filled next offseason.

- s0rcerer1984


Also, ready an article on the Dallas Stars lack of D earlier. Wonder what they would be willing to give up for Paul Martin? Penguins would miss him, but w/ Dallas looking like it is in an 'All-In' year w/ Spezza & a few others on 1-yr deals the return could be quite nice.

Anyway, just a thought about a possible trade partner for either Paul Martin or some of our D prospects.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Oct 1 @ 1:57 PM ET
but he needs to come home
- usethe1-2-2

you already had your turn, don't be greedy
drummer829
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.12.2010

Oct 1 @ 1:57 PM ET
I think the pens should go after some of the blues young forwards. That teams oldest forward is ott and he's 32. Their top 6 looks good with backes, oshie, steen, stastny, Schwartz, and tarasenko plus they have rattie, fabri, and barbashev looking to be top 6 players. However, the blues defensive corps is weak and could use a young promising d man. I would love to see the pens try to grab one of their young forwards. Or maybe the young kids could make oshie available
YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Oct 1 @ 1:58 PM ET
In my opinion:

No Thank You Category:
- Marleau: Already 35 & signed for 3 more seasons (including this one) at $6.66M/yr.

Not Gonna Happen Category:
- Kuznetsov: 22yrs old & going to be a stud; no way Wash. lets him get away.
- Erne:19yrs old & no reason for Tampa to trade him. Also, he isn't NHL ready so wouldn't address the Top-6 F hole.

Would Really Be Nice, But Very Ulikely Category:
- Kane: Tons of skill, youg, & signed long-term at a reasonable Cap Hit.
- Eberle: Tons of skill, young, & signed long-term at areasonable Cap Hit.
- Tatar: Not really sure why Det. would move him. Younger player & signed to a reasonable contract.

Actually Could Happen Category
- Perron: Younger at age 26 & could become expendable in Edm. Plus, if Edm. continues to suck, someone has got to be moved for a Dman.
- Sharp: Older, but not too old. Chcago is going to have to move a big contract at somepoint w/ Kruger, Saad, & various s on D needing to be filled next offseason.

- s0rcerer1984


Definitely all valid points. These guys are attractive for a reason so naturally they're all long shots. Just some points along my lines of thinking.

Kuznetsov, Eberle, Kane --> are so young and talented, they would require us moving Pouliot. And we have our 1st round pick to give. Maybe if the other team is desperate for Defense it could work, but I agree, very unlikely.

Kane (and maybe eberle) are the only ones who realistically could want divorced from his current team.

Marleau --> I prefer a younger guy but I just think he would continue to kill it (esp. with Sid or Geno) throughout the remainder of his contract

Tatar --> maybe Detroit needs defense bad enough to consider a package around Martin

Sharp --> most likely to be "on the block" but I dont know what we can offer Chicago that they really "need"

Erne --> more of a 'prospect' trade. Dumoulin and a 2nd? I dunno that might not make sense for TB

Perron --> probably the most probable scenario of all. Sutter + something for Perron?
87_71_11_29
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: In a van down by the river, PA
Joined: 01.18.2007

Oct 1 @ 2:00 PM ET
I think the pens should go after some of the blues young forwards. That teams oldest forward is ott and he's 32. Their top 6 looks good with backes, oshie, steen, stastny, Schwartz, and tarasenko plus they have rattie, fabri, and barbashev looking to be top 6 players. However, the blues defensive corps is weak and could use a young promising d man. I would love to see the pens try to grab one of their young forwards. Or maybe the young kids could make oshie available
- drummer829

Ive thought this for a while now but since they extended Piets and Bouwmeester, those are the 2 heavy hitters salary-wise on their D. I don't think they could afford to add a Martin or even a Letang. And since they are in win-now mode, getting one of our kids on D doesn't make sense either.

So, I don't think they are good trade partners.
usethe1-2-2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 03.02.2014

Oct 1 @ 2:03 PM ET
you already had your turn, don't be greedy
- BulliesPhan87


Fine.... Simmonds for Martin?
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Oct 1 @ 2:05 PM ET
Fine.... Simmonds for Martin?
- usethe1-2-2

we need Simmonds, I offer you Vinny Lecavalier and an 8th
sammy87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: CO
Joined: 05.05.2011

Oct 1 @ 2:05 PM ET
Ive thought this for a while now but since they extended Piets and Bouwmeester, those are the 2 heavy hitters salary-wise on their D. I don't think they could afford to add a Martin or even a Letang. And since they are in win-now mode, getting one of our kids on D doesn't make sense either.

So, I don't think they are good trade partners.

- 87_71_11_29


Isles and Minn are the most logical trading partners. Martin has some leverage though with his LMC. I think 87 and 71 don't need a Kane or Eberle. More like Okposo or Grabner would be more likely. Look what 87 turned Dupes into.

Just saw on my FB feed that Go go is the Stars #1 Dman...Wow!
usethe1-2-2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 03.02.2014

Oct 1 @ 2:07 PM ET
we need Simmonds, I offer you Vinny Lecavalier and an 8th
- BulliesPhan87


No dice. Read and Laughton for Martin and a 2nd?
drummer829
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.12.2010

Oct 1 @ 2:10 PM ET
Ive thought this for a while now but since they extended Piets and Bouwmeester, those are the 2 heavy hitters salary-wise on their D. I don't think they could afford to add a Martin or even a Letang. And since they are in win-now mode, getting one of our kids on D doesn't make sense either.

So, I don't think they are good trade partners.

- 87_71_11_29


They have no one to replace Jackman and leopold after their contracts are up, and they would be wise to let go of those contracts. They have gunnarsson now, but who knows if he stays in 2 years. Piets and j Bo are solid guys, but you really lack a physical presence on defense. A guy like Harrington could slide next to shattenkirk in a year or so and provide a solid shutdown role with some offensive upside. Harrington for fabbri would be my deal.
s0rcerer1984
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: United States, VA
Joined: 07.03.2008

Oct 1 @ 2:12 PM ET
Definitely all valid points. These guys are attractive for a reason so naturally they're all long shots. Just some points along my lines of thinking.

Kuznetsov, Eberle, Kane --> are so young and talented, they would require us moving Pouliot. And we have our 1st round pick to give. Maybe if the other team is desperate for Defense it could work, but I agree, very unlikely.

Kane (and maybe eberle) are the only ones who realistically could want divorced from his current team.

Marleau --> I prefer a younger guy but I just think he would continue to kill it (esp. with Sid or Geno) throughout the remainder of his contract

Tatar --> maybe Detroit needs defense bad enough to consider a package around Martin

Sharp --> most likely to be "on the block" but I dont know what we can offer Chicago that they really "need"

Erne --> more of a 'prospect' trade. Dumoulin and a 2nd? I dunno that might not make sense for TB

Perron --> probably the most probable scenario of all. Sutter + something for Perron?

- YouMeAndDupuis9


The two I would like would be Perron and Tatar as it is possible both could be moved for a package centered around Sutter + a D prospect. ex: (Perron/Tatar) + ????? --> Sutter + Dumoulin].
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Oct 1 @ 2:12 PM ET
No dice. Read and Laughton for Martin and a 2nd?
- usethe1-2-2

Negatory. Luke Schenn, half of AMac's cap hit, and 500 Big Macs for Martin and Rob Scuderi's helmet.
ChrisMS
Joined: 05.02.2012

Oct 1 @ 2:18 PM ET
but he needs to come home
- usethe1-2-2


I would be BLOWN away if Lemiuex lets the team have anything to do with Jagr.
Bradlee3
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tanev hit was clean.
Joined: 06.30.2012

Oct 1 @ 2:21 PM ET
[quote=nbartley9]This year is going to be fun for so many reasons, the one I am looking forward to the most is the fact that Johnston will not put all of his effort into trying to be the players buddy, cough Bylsma cough. He is going to hold everyone accountable, atleast from what I have heard about him that's what seems like he will try do to. This is going to really be different to what this team is used to, and I believe its going to have the biggest impact on Sutturd and Geno; and I think both players are going to handle it in different ways. I think its going to be the kick in the ass that Geno needs, and will greatly improve his mindset and play. Sutter is not going to have the same positive reaction, he will be delegated to the 4th line before Christmas.


I'm anxious to see how Geno's mindset changes will the exit of Neal, I'm guessing he doesn't take as many stupid penalties and is more settled in general.
F sutturd
ChrisMS
Joined: 05.02.2012

Oct 1 @ 2:22 PM ET
It's crazy to think that if the Penguins moved Fleury, Scuderi and Martin they would have almost 15 million in cap space and not really notice the loss of those players.
- Dcoms


Martin's iand Fluery's loss would be felt in a negative way, scuds in a positive way.
ChrisMS
Joined: 05.02.2012

Oct 1 @ 2:24 PM ET
Stats not only lie, they deceive.
- hardnosed


YouMeAndDupuis9
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 06.09.2014

Oct 1 @ 2:29 PM ET
Isles and Minn are the most logical trading partners. Martin has some leverage though with his LMC. I think 87 and 71 don't need a Kane or Eberle. More like Okposo or Grabner would be more likely. Look what 87 turned Dupes into.

Just saw on my FB feed that Go go is the Stars #1 Dman...Wow!

- sammy87



Wow is right. Too bad they dont have much to give for top 6 forwards. They would never part with Benn, Seguin, or Nichuskin. So Hemsky would be the only guy I'd be remotely interested in from them.

EDIT -- Scuderi for Hemsky :-)

Minnesota basically just has Coyle ....or Tuch in a prospect kind of trade.
usethe1-2-2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 03.02.2014

Oct 1 @ 2:30 PM ET
Negatory. Luke Schenn, half of AMac's cap hit, and 500 Big Macs for Martin and Rob Scuderi's helmet.
- BulliesPhan87


Hmmm you pose an interesting trade. How about Scuderi wearing a Martin jersey and Malkin's old knee brace for SalsaVerde, or whatever his name is.
Ryan Wilson
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Rochester, NY
Joined: 06.13.2013

Oct 1 @ 2:31 PM ET
I would be BLOWN away if Lemiuex lets the team have anything to do with Jagr.
- ChrisMS


Lemieux and Jagr are both businessmen. If it makes sense for both they will consider it. If it doesn't make sense for one or the other, they won't.

Mario and Jagr aren't in some kind of high school drama situation here. The Flyers bucked up and Jagr rightfully took market value. Probably under market value as hindsight would show.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Oct 1 @ 2:33 PM ET
Hmmm you pose an interesting trade. How about Scuderi wearing a Martin jersey and Malkin's old knee brace for SalsaVerde, or whatever his name is.
- usethe1-2-2

We're not prepared for a trade of that magnitude. Would you take Stortini for the Martin jersey?

EDIT: I'll personally take on the knee brace, if it's needed for cap purposes.
usethe1-2-2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 03.02.2014

Oct 1 @ 2:43 PM ET
We're not prepared for a trade of that magnitude. Would you take Stortini for the Martin jersey?

EDIT: I'll personally take on the knee brace, if it's needed for cap purposes.

- BulliesPhan87


I have run out of good ones.

EDIT: Stortini is just italian for Rosehill right?
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Oct 1 @ 2:48 PM ET
I have run out of good ones.

EDIT: Stortini is just italian for Rosehill right?

- usethe1-2-2

I've missed pretty much all of Stortini's tenure as a Flyer, fortunately.
icedog97
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 10.20.2005

Oct 1 @ 2:50 PM ET
I think there's a good bit of hockey that needs to be played before anything happens.

Unless there is an injury of some sort (either with the Pens or another team) I think the Penguins are going to take some time to see what they have with this new mix of players...once they determine who (for the most part) that really is of course.

I like what I have seen of the forward group in terms of energy and hustle (for the most part)...but without Sid and Geno, as we already know, there is never much scoring.

With both in the line-up (whenever that is for Malkin) it definitely expands the coaches options and makes other players more effective -- as you would assume those "less than Crosby and Malkin" players will draw more favorable opposition during games.

As far as the comments about stats go...

As much as Spaling has been beaten down on this blog...repeatedly...I still don't see the problem with a guy who's current salary is ranked 354th in the league and will probably earn a good bit...if not all...of his 2.2M
http://www.spotrac.com/ra...gs/nhl/average/limit-500/

If you do simple math (inaccurate but worth the example I think)...that would put him at about the 12-13th highest salary on each team (30 teams with about 11-12 guys ahead on each).

So my point is...I like a lot of what Ryan writes...but I think that the targeting done -- that so often uses references to specific possession numbers as the reasons for why a guy is such a good or bad player...becomes too focused and over emphasized. In a nutshell, that's what a lot of people who understand what the stats mean fear as well.

As much as I really don't care for Pierre McGuire...he said something I liked...and Greg Wyshynski sort of took it out of context (because that's what Yahoo does)...

But the main point Pierre made was this:

Q. “We gotta still be quite a ways away from at time when a coach is going to talk to a player after the game and is going to use analytics to explain what he did right or what he did wrong.”

PIERRE: “Any coach that does that should be terminated.”

Q. “HUH?!”

PIERRE: “You heard me. You challenge me all you want. Videotape is what they need to see. Players don’t think about, ‘If I block this shot, my analytic number is going to go five percent.’ Or ‘if I get five shots on goal, my analytic number is going to go up 10 percent.’ They have to look at the play. They have to decipher the situation. It’s about the play. It’s about the hockey sense. It’s about the peripheral vision. It’s about winning the race. There’s no number for that.”

“The tape doesn’t lie.”

“I will cede you this, because I was guilty as the next coach for doing this. You usually had eight 10-game meetings. You do the breakdown: ‘You were a plus-4 over these 10 games, you have five goals, etc.’ You have it all on a graph for a player, you break it down that way.”

“I thought the key to those meetings is that you’d have it all on a graph, but you’d have a video tape to back it up. The video was the key to the meeting. You’d read the numbers, but the tape was more valuable.”


http://sports.yahoo.com/b...yer-review-151106458.html

And I have always maintained that the numbers are only helpful if they can be used to help a coach or owner improve his team.

Clearly for a coach it has to go back to ...this is what we are doing right and wrong.

For owners, that might mean moving a guy...but each new combination of players creates a totally different dynamic and you need to see how that plays out to some extent before you can decide what to change.
Ryan Wilson
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Rochester, NY
Joined: 06.13.2013

Oct 1 @ 3:08 PM ET
I'm not looking to convert anybody here. If you don't like stats it doesn't matter to me. I'm not telling anybody here how to view the game.
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