Well, as I made mention in the blog, the system put in place can influence these individual stats. So it will be on the Leafs management to also make necessary changes. But by bringing in a guy like Dubas who can bestow some of his knowledge upon the coaches, in addition to (having) new coaches...it couldnt get any worse, right?
- Colin_Dambrauskas

It could possibly.


The system will have to change no question. Everyone has said as much.

What does it say if all those +corsi guys come in here and their corsi falls or even mirrors those that left and those that left have their corsi rise?
- burn

It says to me, much like +/- stats, there are too many false positives and false negatives in individual corsi stats. At a team level, the flaws in the data are less noticeable.

I think publically available shot attempt statistics appear to be too flawed to assess individual performance with a high level of confidence.

Colin Dambrauskas: Maple Leafs; From Miley Cirus to Iggy Azalea - Fancy Stats
- Colin_Dambrauskas

Wath the game, nerd!

I don't think that just posting those numbers side by side is a true comparison. I believe there is a way to quantify their corsi/fenwick against their team as a whole to show their contribution to the team. Gunner played higher in the lineup against much tougher competition on a historically bad corsi team and polak played lower on a very good corsi team.


I'm sure without a doubt that gunner will play higher in the the blues lineup than polak did, and will have better corsi numbers than polak.
- burn

Where did you find the crystal ball???

Where did you find the crystal ball???
- lumlums

None needed, both teams have said that.

Please don't make me the the Sun's Leafs coverage.

I assume it'll be like Chicago, no analytical approach told Bowman to pay Kane and Toews +$20M/year. At some point you step away from the spreadsheets and do the right thing.
- Tumbleweed

My guess is that any geek-generated spreadsheet would still tell you to give those guys as much money as you possibly can.

I'm sure without a doubt that gunner will play higher in the the blues lineup than polak did, and will have better corsi numbers than polak.
- burn

Who cares about those numbers though. You have said it yourself a thousand times how much these numbers don't mean anything..... Why even say this?

Who cares about those numbers though. You have said it yourself a thousand times how much these numbers don't mean anything..... Why even say this?
- Lee Denault

None needed, both teams have said that.
- burn

Yea sure they did...

My guess is that any geek-generated spreadsheet would still tell you to give those guys as much money as you possibly can.
- Atomic Wedgie

ok, so bad example.

In any event, using reliable stats to assist in decision making seems like a no-brainer.

I hope the idea with Dubas is that he will not be using statistics that are readily available, not in the long-term anyways.

I take it he will have a state of the art data collection and maintenance department set-up at the ACC that will be not only gathering and using their own proprietary data but cleansing it for the flaws.
- Tumbleweed

TML Nerd Herd!

None needed, both teams have said that.
- burn

*Fans of both teams. Not the teams themselves

Enjoy your ban
- Pea-Brain

Oh, I'd be heartbroken!

My guess is that any geek-generated spreadsheet would still tell you to give those guys as much money as you possibly can.
- Atomic Wedgie

Apparently it also tells you to give Grabovski that much money too, as one of these "fancy" gurus tried to argue with me on Twitter that Grabbo was in the same class as Toews as a player, just underused and in a worse system. Macarthur = Corey Perry. Etc. This is type of maniacs these stats create, however it does not seem like Dubas is that type of guy at all, which is great. He is the perfect blend of using all the extra tools and information available, while not allowing it to conflict with rational thinking, the eye test, etc.

Great article Colin. It was good to breakdown the terms since most don't have a clue.

One thing I would have included is an example showing the breakdown of precisely how these percentages are created. I.e a players CF% is 44%. Showing to get to that number is key for helping people make the jump in understanding how to interpret them at maximum comprehension levels.



JVR/Bozak/Kessel
Lupul/Kadri/Nylander
Booth/Santorelli/Frattin
Komo/Kontiola/Clarkson

The lines are interchangeable but with the 13th/14th men being one or two of Bodie, Smith, Orr, Ashton or maybe Holland but doubtful as he'd be better served on the Marlies, that basically leaves one forward spot open if Nylander doesn't make the team as far as I see it. I don't see any of the new bodies being brought in to be sent to Ricoh (Santo/Booth/Kontiola/Frattin/Komo) as all but Frattin make over 1M.

So while I'm relatively happy with the bottom 6 turnover, it sucks because all the Leivo's or Mckegg's of the world who might have infused the lineup with young blood and hustle now likely have no jobs to play for. It's a catch 22.

On D, unless Franson is traded there is only spot open as well, and that's the 7th man. Doesn't make a ton of sense to have Granberg there, but if they dress 7 every night like they did with Ranger maybe it makes some sense.

Iggy's "working in my poop" would be a whole lot more appropriate... As would "wussy" ... Sadly

Colin Dambrauskas: Maple Leafs; From Miley Cirus to Iggy Azalea - Fancy Stats
- Colin_Dambrauskas

Grabovski was replaced as second line centre by Kadri, who also has good possession numbers, plus he's younger and cheaper. I guess we could have kept him and played him on the 3rd line, but we already have a $5 million 3rd liner, so I'd rather not have two of them.

*Fans of both teams. Not the teams themselves
- lumlums

Actually the teams have in fact said it. Gunner was #2 dman, leafs have said that polak will slot in at 5 or 6. The blues have said they plan on having gunner on the 2nd pair with shattenkirk.

Who cares about those numbers though. You have said it yourself a thousand times how much these numbers don't mean anything..... Why even say this?
- Lee Denault

Don't bother getting the point, you clearly missed it.


But hey, gunner is going to play a more important role for the blues than did polak and put up better numbers too.... And we only had to add a pick and pick up some of his salary too.

Actually the teams have in fact said it. Gunner was #2 dman, leafs have said that polak will slot in at 5 or 6. The blues have said they plan on having gunner on the 2nd pair with shattenkirk.
- burn

You said both teams have said Gunnarason is a better possesion player. Obviously they have not.

You said both teams have said Gunnarason is a better possesion player. Obviously they have not.
- JVR_42_PK81

When did I say that?

I don't think that just posting those numbers side by side is a true comparison. I believe there is a way to quantify their corsi/fenwick against their team as a whole to show their contribution to the team. Gunner played higher in the lineup against much tougher competition on a historically bad corsi team and polak played lower on a very good corsi team.


I'm sure without a doubt that gunner will play higher in the the blues lineup than polak did, and will have better corsi numbers than polak.
- burn

I don't think that just posting those numbers side by side is a true comparison. I believe there is a way to quantify their corsi/fenwick against their team as a whole to show their contribution to the team. Gunner played higher in the lineup against much tougher competition on a historically bad corsi team and polak played lower on a very good corsi team.


I'm sure without a doubt that gunner will play higher in the the blues lineup than polak did, and will have better corsi numbers than polak.
- burn
- JVR_42_PK81

And? What are you getting at here?

HI Colin.

And? What are you getting at here?
- burn

youre something else

Don't bother getting the point, you clearly missed it.


But hey, gunner is going to play a more important role for the blues than did polak and put up better numbers too.... And we only had to add a pick and pick up some of his salary too.
- burn

such a poop talker