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Maple Leafs; From Miley Cyrus to Iggy Azalea in the Locker Room? |
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With the hiring of Kyle Dubas, much of the discussion over the Toronto Maple Leafs latest transaction has shifted toward that of analytics. What's more, is that the Leafs locker room song may shift from Miley Cyrus which the team enjoyed last year, to Iggy Azalea's "I'm so fancy", depending on how the team adapts to "fancy stats".
That being said, I felt it would be interesting to discuss and analyze the moves which the Maple Leafs have made so far this summer, and how they may have improved when it comes to having players which Dubas may favour.
Needing a “culture” change and an improvement over last year’s results, the Leafs decided to let players such as Nikolai Kulemin, Mason Raymond, Dave Bolland, Paul Ranger, Carl Gunnarsson, and Jay McClement walk. The organization would then replace these players with recently acquired David Booth, Mike Santorelli, Stephane Robidas, Roman Polak, and former player Matt Frattin.
I’ve already gone to lengths with respect to how I felt about the above acquisitions, save for Booth who I’ll share a few words on, so I won’t go into much more detail about what they bring outside of the analytics talk.
Before I get into the “fancy stats”, I’d like to say that the David Booth pick up was pretty decent for the Leafs. This is a low risk, medium reward type move for Toronto who had no 4th line to speak of last year. By acquiring even more bottom 6 talent, Toronto should afford themselves the ability to roll 3 strong lines, with one “hockey capable” 4th line who does more than carry cement like hands.
Last year we all witnessed a team which came out the gates rather strong. They seemed destined to play some great hockey and end on a high note until, as many expected, things started to fall apart. What most failed to account for was that Toronto was one of few teams who didn’t care to upgrade their roster’s overall strength and felt that they could get away with two strong lines, one okay line, and a 4th line who offered 2-3mins a night of slow skating, time wasting, hockey.
Since, Toronto has solely focused on improving their overall team depth with acquiring guys like Robidas, Santorelli, and most recently, Booth. While most fans feel like acquiring David Booth was not something that would take this team over the top, they fail to realize that Toronto didn’t (really) have issues with their top lines. They were really hurting in the bottom six guys who are looked upon to add tertiary scoring and wear down the opposition.
While Booth isn’t exactly a “grinder”, he has the right tools to add some scoring to the 3rd line which adds an added element of offense and fore-check to this roster.
With respect to the analytics - Many fans were upset when the Leafs let go of Mikhail Grabovski and Clarke MacArthur because they were the Leafs top possession players at the time. Well, fans had good reason to be upset because the Leafs would struggle in terms of possession during the 2013-14 NHL season(29th in both CF/FF%), and those two players would have helped.
That said – has Toronto learnt from this and taken the appropriate steps in improving upon their “fancy stats”? As mentioned, they struggled in possession stats and the two primary ways of tracking this is is Corsi and Fenwick. Below are the terms laid out for you, courtesy of Extraskater.
Corsi - Corsi is the number of shot attempts by a team or player. In other words, it's the sum of a team or players's goals, shots on net, shots that miss the net, and shots that are blocked. It's used as a proxy for puck possession: since we can't (yet) measure how long a player or team has possession of the puck, we use corsi as an approximation.
Fenwick - Fenwick is the number of unblocked shot attempts by a team or player. It's the same as corsi, but excludes shots that are blocked. It's used because over many games it's a slightly better proxy for possession than corsi. It's not used exclusively instead of corsi mainly because over smaller sample sizes, the larger corsi number is more accurate in reflecting puck possession.
That being said, we can try and estimate how, if at all, the Leafs have improved with respect to the players who they brought in, and allowed to walk. I will be using CF% (Corsi For / (Corsi For + Corsi Against)) and FF% (Fenwick For / (Fenwick For + Fenwick Against)) as a measure.
Of those who left, the individual player CF% were as follows: Kulemin(41.3), Mason Raymond(44.2), Dave Bolland(44.1), Paul Ranger(42.3), Carl Gunnarsson(40.1) and Jay McClement(38.6), for an average of 41.7%.
Of those who were brought in, the individual player CF% were as follows: David Booth(50.2), Mike Santorelli(50.6), Stephane Robidas(51.2), Roman Polak(49.4), and Matt Frattin(53.7), for an average of 51.02%.
With respect to fenwick, we also see improvement here. Of those who left, the individual player FF% were as follows: Kulemin(41.5), Mason Raymond(43.5), Dave Bolland(42.8), Paul Ranger(41.7), Carl Gunnarsson(41.1), and Jay McClement(38.1), for an average of 41.45%.
Of those who were brought in, the individual player FF% were as follows: David Booth(51.3), Mike Santorelli(52.6), Stephane Robidas(52.2), Roman Polak(50.9), and Matt Frattin(51.5), for an average of 51.7%.
The Leafs have improved upon individual CF% by nearly 10%, and just over 10% improvement with respect to FF% with the addition of these four players. What’s important to note here, however, is that a team’s system can influence individual numbers like these. That said, bringing in players who have done well in that respect, never hurts and is a step in the right direction.
With the hiring on Dubas, it would only stand to reason that the areas in which the Leafs struggled (many of which had to do with advanced stats), could improve. No, he‘s not going to solve all their problems over night, and no he doesn’t have some magical formula that will suddenly make players better. But what he does have are tools and a strong understanding of an area of the game which the Leafs lacked knowledge, so it would seem.
By improving upon the above, and continuously pointing out areas in which the team should focus their efforts, I would argue that this organization will be rewarded, in due time, for their decisions.
That’s all for today folks, thanks for reading!
Toronto Maple Leafs Blogger • 
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