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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Golbourne and Low-Ceiling Drafting
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Coburns_Nose
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Coburn's face
Joined: 11.16.2012

Jul 14 @ 2:50 PM ET
Thing is, you can find your Rinaldos and Goulbournes in the late rounds and, IMO, there is no need to use a third round pick on that type of player profile.
- bmeltzer


Yeah, that makes sense. Of course you can also get lucky with offensive players in the later rounds. Drafting anybody anywhere has an element of risk involved and the question is how badly you want a certain type of player and how likely you think it is that a player will turn out that way.

We all know that Paul Holmgren likes a certain type of player more than other GMs, for better or for worse. He seems to think Golbourne is a sure thing.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 14 @ 3:02 PM ET
Yeah, that makes sense. Of course you can also get lucky with offensive players in the later rounds. Drafting anybody anywhere has an element of risk involved and the question is how badly you want a certain type of player and how likely you think it is that a player will turn out that way.

We all know that Paul Holmgren likes a certain type of player more than other GMs, for better or for worse. He seems to think Golbourne is a sure thing.

- Coburns_Nose

Ghoul was just a low risk, low reward pick. They could've picked someone that had a higher potential, but they were much more likely to miss. Ghoul is almost a certainty to make the NHL (because he doesn't actually need to improve his hockey skills very much to make it), but he'll be nothing more than a 4th line agitator.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 14 @ 3:07 PM ET
Ghoul was just a low risk, low reward pick. They could've picked someone that had a higher potential, but they were much more likely to miss. Ghoul is almost a certainty to make the NHL (because he doesn't actually need to improve his hockey skills very much to make it), but he'll be nothing more than a 4th line agitator.
- JAKEw1234


Pretty much. You could have also got a guy very much like him two rounds later, and grabbed a player like Jimmy Lodge or Jordan Subban instead of him.

That's great if those players flame out or never reach the NHL, but it would suck if those guys go on to have good NHL careers.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 14 @ 3:09 PM ET
Ghoul was just a low risk, low reward pick. They could've picked someone that had a higher potential, but they were much more likely to miss. Ghoul is almost a certainty to make the NHL (because he doesn't actually need to improve his hockey skills very much to make it), but he'll be nothing more than a 4th line agitator.
- JAKEw1234


I wouldn't go as far as saying he's a certainty. Not that I know he isn't. But I don't think anyone at this point can say that he's a certainty. But for me the bottom line is, if he makes it to the NHL, in any role. Then it was a good pick. But if he doesn't, I'm not going to criticize the pick.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 14 @ 3:15 PM ET
Pretty much. You could have also got a guy very much like him two rounds later, and grabbed a player like Jimmy Lodge or Jordan Subban instead of him.

That's great if those players flame out or never reach the NHL, but it would suck if those guys go on to have good NHL careers.

- Jsaquella

I would've rather had a goalie, personally.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 14 @ 3:18 PM ET
I would've rather had a goalie, personally.
- JAKEw1234


That would have been fine, too. Marcus Hogberg went a couple of picks later.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jul 14 @ 3:31 PM ET
For the 3rd time, trading down requires a team that wants to trade up and it's incorrect to just assume Homer didn't try to move down.
- JAKEw1234


There were many deals involving trading down, but we don't know if Homer tried. History suggests he didn't, but we'll probably never know.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jul 14 @ 3:37 PM ET
Exactly, there's questions about his ability to reach that ceiling. I'd be happy if Hagg ended up as a good second pair defenseman for the Flyers. I'm hoping he'll be a Kim Johnsson type guy, but I'm not counting on him being a top pair guy that plays 22-25 minutes a night.
- Jsaquella


Well, Hägg is ahead of Kim Johnsson in one aspect that point of their respective careers. Johnsson was Mr. Irrelevant of the 1994 Draft -- the 286th and final pick.

jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jul 14 @ 3:44 PM ET
pick 72 is way too high for a player with a 4th line agitator as his ceiling. IMHO.
Deasr1
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Mays Landing, NJ
Joined: 06.21.2009

Jul 14 @ 3:49 PM ET
Pinachio says his "sources" told him Homer called about Weber. Apparently since a bulk of money has all ready been paid, they aren't moving him. I say balderdash, Weber will be a Flyer by Friday night. Its why I feel Homer has held off trades.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jul 14 @ 3:58 PM ET
.I say balderdash, Weber will be a Flyer by Friday night. Its why I feel Homer has held off trades.
- Deasr1


Sabreshark
Location: WA
Joined: 02.17.2012

Jul 14 @ 4:04 PM ET
Pinachio says his "sources" told him Homer called about Weber. Apparently since a bulk of money has all ready been paid, they aren't moving him. I say balderdash, Weber will be a Flyer by Friday night. Its why I feel Homer has held off trades.
- Deasr1

I have a better chance at getting in a 3 way with Jessica Alba and Kate Upton
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 14 @ 4:11 PM ET
Well, Hägg is ahead of Kim Johnsson in one aspect that point of their respective careers. Johnsson was Mr. Irrelevant of the 1994 Draft -- the 286th and final pick.
- bmeltzer


Time to sign him to an 8 year, $66mm contract
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jul 14 @ 4:12 PM ET
Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Golbourne and Low-Ceiling Drafting
- bmeltzer


I agree
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 14 @ 4:13 PM ET
Pinachio says his "sources" told him Homer called about Weber. Apparently since a bulk of money has all ready been paid, they aren't moving him. I say balderdash, Weber will be a Flyer by Friday night. Its why I feel Homer has held off trades.
- Deasr1

Or maybe it's cause he's waiting for Mez to be cleared to play
TonyBazz
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Aston, PA
Joined: 07.18.2007

Jul 14 @ 4:20 PM ET
Or maybe it's cause he's waiting for Mez to be cleared to play
- JAKEw1234


Mesz will be back by next month. That's what the answer is to that question every time. Next month.
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 14 @ 4:23 PM ET
Exactly, there's questions about his ability to reach that ceiling. I'd be happy if Hagg ended up as a good second pair defenseman for the Flyers. I'm hoping he'll be a Kim Johnsson type guy, but I'm not counting on him being a top pair guy that plays 22-25 minutes a night.
- Jsaquella

Kim Johnsson was awesome. I'll take that 7 days a week.

Did everyone see that Pit is ranked favorite to win the cup in 2014? http://www.thescore.com/h...s-to-win-2014-stanley-cup

While Vegas knows little about the NHL, it is still interesting.

Also, NJ is in a bad place. They have little assets to trade and now must look to the UFA bargain bin for help on both D and F. Their Gtending is solid but they have huge holes up and down the lineup.
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 14 @ 4:24 PM ET
I have a better chance at getting in a 3 way with Jessica Alba and Kate Upton
- Sabreshark

Link?

Live web feed?
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 14 @ 4:25 PM ET
Mesz will be back by next month. That's what the answer is to that question every time. Next month.
- TonyBazz

Mez will be cleared in like a week and a half.
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 14 @ 4:27 PM ET
Pretty much. You could have also got a guy very much like him two rounds later, and grabbed a player like Jimmy Lodge or Jordan Subban instead of him.

That's great if those players flame out or never reach the NHL, but it would suck if those guys go on to have good NHL careers.

- Jsaquella

I wanted J Subban

I don't buy the "he is better then me" comment by PK, BUT he was very worth the pick in my opinion.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 14 @ 4:28 PM ET
Kim Johnsson was awesome. I'll take that 7 days a week.

Did everyone see that Pit is ranked favorite to win the cup in 2014? http://www.thescore.com/h...s-to-win-2014-stanley-cup

While Vegas knows little about the NHL, it is still interesting.

Also, NJ is in a bad place. They have little assets to trade and now must look to the UFA bargain bin for help on both D and F. Their Gtending is solid but they have huge holes up and down the lineup.

- coffee junkie

Obviously they gave Carolina, Washington, Edmonton, and the Maple Leafs far and away a better chance at winning it all than us I don't see any of those teams even making the playoffs next year
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 14 @ 4:33 PM ET
Obviously they gave Carolina, Washington, Edmonton, and the Maple Leafs far and away a better chance at winning it all than us I don't see any of those teams even making the playoffs next year
- JAKEw1234

I think the Leafs will be in the mix. Washington depends on one player- OV. CAR has big names but terrible depth. They could squeak in if they have little injuries and Ward plays like he can. Yeah I agree, I think they put the Flyers too low but I'm cool with that. Underdogs!
FlyerMike18
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.07.2009

Jul 14 @ 4:36 PM ET
Kim Johnsson was awesome. I'll take that 7 days a week.

Did everyone see that Pit is ranked favorite to win the cup in 2014? http://www.thescore.com/h...s-to-win-2014-stanley-cup

While Vegas knows little about the NHL, it is still interesting.

Also, NJ is in a bad place. They have little assets to trade and now must look to the UFA bargain bin for help on both D and F. Their Gtending is solid but they have huge holes up and down the lineup.

- coffee junkie


seriously. newark is a poophole
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 14 @ 4:36 PM ET
I think the Leafs will be in the mix. Washington depends on one player- OV. CAR has big names but terrible depth. They could squeak in if they have little injuries and Ward plays like he can. Yeah I agree, I think they put the Flyers too low but I'm cool with that. Underdogs!
- coffee junkie

We must be the most stacked underdog team in the history of the NHL
Don'tForgetTocchet
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ground Zero Brooklyn
Joined: 02.08.2007

Jul 14 @ 5:29 PM ET

- bmeltzer



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