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Meltzer's Musings: Goulbourne and Low-Ceiling Drafting

July 14, 2013, 8:23 AM ET [209 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Goulbourne and Low-Ceiling Drafting

The Philadelphia Flyers selection of Kelowna Rockets forward Tyrell Goulbourne with the 71st overall pick of the 2013 NHL Draft has drawn criticism in many circles. Bypassed in his first year of Draft eligibility, the agitating energy-line player was ranked 151st on Central Scouting's final North American skater ratings this year and was pegged by pundits as a potential late-round pick.

According to the Flyers, there is a two-fold reason why the team chose Goulbourne when there were many seemingly higher-ceiling prospects (at all positions) still on the board.

First, the team believes that Goulbourne is projectable as a viable NHL player -- likely a fourth-line one, but still an NHLer -- and he is closer to being pro ready than any of the younger players they bypassed. The club believes he's a virtual clone of Zac Rinaldo. Secondly, the team did not pick again until the 132nd pick (fifth round) and had reason to believe from discussions with other teams that Goulbourne would have been taken before then.

I am NOT against the Flyers having taken Goulbourne in the Draft. Teams need grit and moxie, and Goulbourne is a good skater on top of it. However, I still very much question where he was taken.

If another team was going to choose Goulbourne before the Flyers' next turn came up, then so be it. In the third round of the Draft, I'd rather aim my sights higher and either wait longer on player to be pro ready -- or even end up with a swing-and-a-miss prospect in hindsight -- than take someone whom I believe can be more safely projected as a 10th to 13th forward in the NHL in the shorter-range future.

In most every Draft, there are a host of players available in Round Three who fit one or more of the following categories: skilled but undersized, skilled and average pro height but too skinny, skilled but deficient in skating, skilled but deficient in defensive play, two-way players with iffy hands, big-framed but raw power forward candidates, unpolished goaltenders, skilled European players who may not be as effective in the smaller-rink game, North American Junior A and high school players who have dominated against low levels of competition but have not been tested yet in higher-level leagues.

The 2013 Draft had an abundance of such players in the pool of still-available players when the Flyers opted for Goulbourne. In my July 1 blog, I listed 15 players who are potentially higher-yield prospects than Goulbourne. By no means am I suggesting that all or even the majority of them are going to go on to become NHL players, let alone future stars. Chances are that most of them will fall short of the NHL. Let's also assume for argument's sake that the Flyers nailed it with the Goulbourne pick, and he goes on to become an NHL player who plays multiple seasons as a 9th to 12th forward at the top level.

Even then, I STILL would not say Goulbourne was the right decision at that point of the Draft. There will be a handful of players the Flyers bypassed out of that list of 15 -- and others picked in that general vicinity -- who will go on to have a bigger NHL impact than Goulbourne. ne or two might go on to be All-Star caliber players down the line.

Of course, no one has a crystal ball to determine which player(s) it will be that make a larger impact. But in Round 3, I'd rather take a 10 to 20 percent chance of finding a future top-six forward, top-four defenseman or starting NHL goalie in Round 3 than take even a 50-50 shot at the next Zac Rinaldo.

Come Round 6 or 7, I'd be thrilled if my pick turned out to be an NHL player like Rinaldo (who, in fact, was originally taken by the Flyers in the sixth round of the 2008 Draft). Likewise, whether he pans out as an NHL player or not, I had no problem whatsoever with the Flyers selection of Derek Mathers in the seventh round of the 2011 Draft.

It's when a team uses a top-100 pick on a projected fourth-liner that the selection of that player can rightfully be questioned right off the bat.

Back in the 2007 Draft, the Flyers took Saskatoon Blades fourth-line right winger Garrett Klotz with the 66th overall pick, and got rightfully skewered for it.

The reasoning behind the pick was that Klotz -- who has a gargantuan 6-foot-6 frame, a penchant for physical play and a willingness to drop the gloves -- someday had the chance to become a fearsome role player in the NHL. The Flyers believed that his hockey skills would eventually come along as well.

On the day following the completion of the 2007 Draft, I blogged about my own immediate dissatisfaction with the Flyers' decision to select Klotz as early as they did. I rattled off the names of 10 still-available forwards believed to have superior potential to enforcer prospect Klotz.

Of the 10 forwards I listed in that blog as preferable alternatives to Klotz, only four have gone on to play in the NHL. Just one (Jamie Benn, who fit the Junior A player and the needs-to-fill-out categories back in 2007) has become an NHL star. Two others (Joakim Andersson and Alex Killorn) are current NHLers. As it turned out, Klotz himself ended up being a fringe AHL player and played in the ECHL last season.

Returning to this year's Draft, would you take one-in-10 odds of finding a higher-end future NHLer or would you take a lower upside player like Goulbourne? I'd personally still go for whomever I thought was the best available long-term prospect.

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