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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Bozak At The "Center" Of A Dilemma
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bixll
Location: New Glasgow, NS
Joined: 09.04.2008

Apr 10 @ 8:21 AM ET
Let's be honest...you can NEVER give the Leafs too much credit. You need to keep their fanbase humble.
- Colin Dambrauskas



My boy Joey Mac had a nice game for you the other night.. do they sign him for next year?
systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Apr 10 @ 8:23 AM ET
Let's be honest...you can NEVER give the Leafs too much credit. You need to keep their fanbase humble.
- Colin Dambrauskas


No no, you misunderstood. Im not saying the Leafs should have been higher. I was saying that not enough credit was given to the Pens and Ducks and too much was given to the Rangers and Sens.

faceto27
Location: Burke: Best part of today is I
Joined: 01.21.2010

Apr 10 @ 8:25 AM ET
No no, you misunderstood. Im not saying the Leafs should have been higher. I was saying that not enough credit was given to the Pens and Ducks and too much was given to the Rangers and Sens.
- systemtool



I think that TSN power ranking is for "fantasy" purposes. They ranked the Ducks and Pens lower because of the injuries. So they are theorizing going forward, that they would not be good teams to select fantasy players.
systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Apr 10 @ 8:27 AM ET
I think that TSN power ranking is for "fantasy" purposes. They ranked the Ducks and Pens lower because of the injuries. So they are theorizing going forward, that they would not be good teams to select fantasy players.
- faceto27


Ahhh, thats just it though.

Yet the Sens are much higher than them despite Spezza, Karlsson etc being out?

Doesn't make sense.
faceto27
Location: Burke: Best part of today is I
Joined: 01.21.2010

Apr 10 @ 8:30 AM ET
Ahhh, thats just it though.

Yet the Sens are much higher than them despite Spezza, Karlsson etc being out?

Doesn't make sense.

- systemtool



But the Sens have had those guys out all season so basically they remain status quo.
systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Apr 10 @ 8:31 AM ET
But the Sens have had those guys out all season so basically they remain status quo.
- faceto27


wtf?

This makes no sense. Please stop this madness.

Colin Dambrauskas
Location: Office Chair - @ColinDJD
Joined: 08.04.2010

Apr 10 @ 8:31 AM ET
A Tool?

Thee Tool.

Aka. The Hammer.

- systemtool


So, cool if I just call you Hammer then?
Colin Dambrauskas
Location: Office Chair - @ColinDJD
Joined: 08.04.2010

Apr 10 @ 8:31 AM ET
My boy Joey Mac had a nice game for you the other night.. do they sign him for next year?
- bixll


I think so...only other goalie they have at their disposal is Ramo. And he hasnt played in the NHL for 3 years now I believe.
Colin Dambrauskas
Location: Office Chair - @ColinDJD
Joined: 08.04.2010

Apr 10 @ 8:32 AM ET
No no, you misunderstood. Im not saying the Leafs should have been higher. I was saying that not enough credit was given to the Pens and Ducks and too much was given to the Rangers and Sens.
- systemtool


The Humble Hammer.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Apr 10 @ 8:32 AM ET
That list is a bit of a joke.

We're behind the Rangers and Sens in the rankings, but ahead of them in the standings. We're behind the Pens and Ducks in the standings but ahead of them in the rankings.


- systemtool




Is it based on advanced stats?
Colin Dambrauskas
Location: Office Chair - @ColinDJD
Joined: 08.04.2010

Apr 10 @ 8:33 AM ET
I think that TSN power ranking is for "fantasy" purposes. They ranked the Ducks and Pens lower because of the injuries. So they are theorizing going forward, that they would not be good teams to select fantasy players.
- faceto27


Yeah but let's face it...you would STILL take those teams regardless. Atleast I would...
systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Apr 10 @ 8:33 AM ET
Is it based on advanced stats?
- burn


GFA!!!

CORSI!!!
faceto27
Location: Burke: Best part of today is I
Joined: 01.21.2010

Apr 10 @ 8:36 AM ET
wtf?

This makes no sense. Please stop this madness.

- systemtool



Sure it does........ think it through.

The Sens have the same lineup they've had for most of the season.

The Pens have lost key players over the past couple of weeks. It would make sense that you project them to drop off. Not saying it will happen, but it is probable.
Colin Dambrauskas
Location: Office Chair - @ColinDJD
Joined: 08.04.2010

Apr 10 @ 8:39 AM ET
Sure it does........ think it through.

The Sens have the same lineup they've had for most of the season.

The Pens have lost key players over the past couple of weeks. It would make sense that you project them to drop off. Not saying it will happen, but it is probable.

- faceto27


I think he was agreeing with you
systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Apr 10 @ 8:39 AM ET
Sure it does........ think it through.

The Sens have the same lineup they've had for most of the season.

The Pens have lost key players over the past couple of weeks. It would make sense that you project them to drop off. Not saying it will happen, but it is probable.

- faceto27


It only makes sense if the teams were evenly matched to begin with and the recent injuries now gives one team the edge to be better over the other. The fact the Sens have lost almost all their games since the guys on the Pens got hurt makes this formula senseless, pointless and inaccurate.

While the Pens have lost key players recently, the Sens have key players out too, but the Pens are still easily the better team despite these injuries.

With Lupul out, and let's say Kessel and Liles get hurt, should the Panthers be ahead of us in the rankings because of that? (frank) no.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Apr 10 @ 8:41 AM ET
GFA!!!

CORSI!!!

- systemtool



systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Apr 10 @ 8:42 AM ET

- burn

lumlums
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.25.2011

Apr 10 @ 8:43 AM ET
Dont need to call you names to get ya going...just need to make up certain stats


- Colin Dambrauskas


MAPLE LEAFS, WE'RE NUMBER ONE!!!!*


*In blocked shots, hits and fights
faceto27
Location: Burke: Best part of today is I
Joined: 01.21.2010

Apr 10 @ 8:43 AM ET
It only makes sense if the teams were evenly matched to begin with and the recent injuries now gives one team the edge to be better over the other. The fact the Sens have lost almost all their games since the guys on the Pens got hurt makes this formula senseless, pointless and inaccurate.

While the Pens have lost key players recently, the Sens have key players out too, but the Pens are still easily the better team despite these injuries.

- systemtool



Yes, I agree with that. But their projections are based on fantasy pools. With Crosby out, players like Dupuis and Kunetz, theoretically are going to drop in fantasy points output.

Think of it like this. Kessel and Phaneuf and Kadri all get injured in the next week. TSN in all likelyhood would be dropping them in the rankings because for fantasy player purposes, the goal scoring is likely to drop going forward.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Apr 10 @ 8:44 AM ET
Sure it does........ think it through.

The Sens have the same lineup they've had for most of the season.

The Pens have lost key players over the past couple of weeks. It would make sense that you project them to drop off. Not saying it will happen, but it is probable.

- faceto27




That makes no sense. The pens with their injuries are still deeper and more talented than the sens currently are.

Plus you can't project the sens to drop off more than they already have, they've lost what 6 in a row? But somehow they are still ranked high?
systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Apr 10 @ 8:44 AM ET
Yes, I agree with that. But their projections are based on fantasy pools. With Crosby out, players like Dupuis and Kunetz, theoretically are going to drop in fantasy points output.

Think of it like this. Kessel and Phaneuf and Kadri all get injured in the next week. TSN in all likelyhood would be dropping them in the rankings because for fantasy player purposes, the goal scoring is likely to drop going forward.

- faceto27


I see no mention of fantasy pools and crap of the sort on that page.

Point is, with the injuries the Sens have, and taking your arguement into account, the Sens should never have been in the top 10 at all until they get healthy. The Sens roster, outside goaltending, has ZERO fantasy value. NONE.

And while you're taking Crosby out, dont forget you're putting Iginla in. Not saying Iginla is as good as Sid, but it should factor into this.
Colin Dambrauskas
Location: Office Chair - @ColinDJD
Joined: 08.04.2010

Apr 10 @ 8:47 AM ET
It only makes sense if the teams were evenly matched to begin with and the recent injuries now gives one team the edge to be better over the other. The fact the Sens have lost almost all their games since the guys on the Pens got hurt makes this formula senseless, pointless and inaccurate.

While the Pens have lost key players recently, the Sens have key players out too, but the Pens are still easily the better team despite these injuries.

With Lupul out, and let's say Kessel and Liles get hurt, should the Panthers be ahead of us in the rankings because of that? (frank) no.

- systemtool



If you REALLY want to get into it...Heres what Cullen had to say about it -

So, now that each player has a rating based on his statistical production, the next step is to generate team rankings and I do that by weighting each player's contribution based on their role on the team. Thus, first line forwards count much more significantly than fourth-line forwards and top-pair defencemen are more impactful than third-pair defencemen and so on.

What this methodology allows is for players to be moved in and out of the lineup based on injuries, suspensions, trades -- whatever transaction will affect the lineup, so that a value can be established for the current team. I readily acknowledge that it is an estimated value for any team, but I readily acknowledge it because there is not a flawless, guaranteed accurate measure that exists, and I've found this model to be representative, even if the results aren't always popular.

Additionally, by using statistics alone to generate the rankings, there should be no illusions of bias or favouritism affecting the rankings.

That means the team that is going on the ice that night, not the one that was playing weeks or months ago or will be playing when an injured star returns because, when the injured star returns to action, that will also be reflected in the rankings.

Consider the rankings to be a snapshot (think photography, not Ovechkin coming down the wing) of a team's value at a given time. For the purposes of TSN.ca, that will most often be on Mondays, when the rankings are updated each week. That means the rankings are always subject to change based on any number of factors, whether it's injuries, trades or simply improved results.

While the end result of the weighted individual grades provides an approximate value for each team, over the years I've incorporated small weightings for factors like divisional strength, power play and penalty killing results to help smooth statistics that are compiled against different levels of competition. These aren't huge factors in the overall rating but certainly if teams are of similar value otherwise, the team in the stronger division will most often prevail in the rankings.

The premise, then, of my NHL Power Rankings is to determine the team that would be favoured to win a seven-game series on neutral ice. The theoretical premise is based on neutral ice because home-ice advantage is a circumstance of play, not a measure of a team's actual quality.

Given that any team could beat any other in a single game, the likelihood swings towards a more statistically-relevant result when it comes to a seven-game series.

A couple observations that I've found over the years:

There is not a uniform difference from one spot to the next, so don't automatically assume that a team that moved up three spots in the rankings necessarily improved by more than a team that moved up by one spot in the rankings. The movement between places has as much to do with the performance of other teams in a similar place in the rankings.

The key injuries that are listed for each team are for top six forwards, top four defencemen and starting goaltenders. We have a page on the site that lists all injuries, but I'm including the most impactful ones in the rankings simply for a quick reference.

The rankings will tend to favour teams with strong goaltending. I have no problem with this since, at the very least, solid goaltending seems to be needed to win a series of any significance.

Teams that win by a larger margin of victory are rewarded. Again, I fully support this result, since it's preposterous to me to reward a 2-1 win the same as a 10-1 win. The standings, which give two points for every victory, make this kind of evaluation and it's why I am just as concerned, in the big picture, with goal differential as I am with points in the standings.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tavares is sledge hockey level - Islesrbettr, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Apr 10 @ 8:47 AM ET
It only makes sense if the teams were evenly matched to begin with and the recent injuries now gives one team the edge to be better over the other. The fact the Sens have lost almost all their games since the guys on the Pens got hurt makes this formula senseless, pointless and inaccurate.

While the Pens have lost key players recently, the Sens have key players out too, but the Pens are still easily the better team despite these injuries.

With Lupul out, and let's say Kessel and Liles get hurt, should the Panthers be ahead of us in the rankings because of that? (frank) no.

- systemtool





Stop the madness, everyone knows loosing 6 in a row improves your power rankings.
faceto27
Location: Burke: Best part of today is I
Joined: 01.21.2010

Apr 10 @ 8:49 AM ET
I see no mention of fantasy pools and crap of the sort on that page.

Point is, with the injuries the Sens have, and taking your arguement into account, the Sens should never have been in the top 10 at all until they get healthy. The Sens roster, outside goaltending, has ZERO fantasy value. NONE.

And while you're taking Crosby out, dont forget you're putting Iginla in. Not saying Iginla is as good as Sid, but it should factor into this.

- systemtool



Its listed at the top of the page.

Fantasy News
systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Apr 10 @ 8:49 AM ET
Stop the madness, everyone knows loosing 6 in a row improves your power rankings.
- burn


No poop.

The Rangers are barely 8th in the East, yet they have them ranked as 6th in the power rankings overall.
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