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G5 Calgary Flames vs Ottawa Senators: Five things to watch

October 13, 2017, 12:06 PM ET [96 Comments]
Todd Cordell
Calgary Flames Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
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Following an underwhelming opening night loss, the Calgary Flames have responded with three consecutive victories.

On the surface, the wins were *really* impressive as the Flames beat the high-powered Winnipeg Jets at home and followed that up with road wins in Anaheim(!) and Los Angeles.

If you dig a little deeper, though, there are some causes for concern.

They've been bleeding shots/chances and, if not for some excellent performances from Mike Smith, their record could be a lot different than it is.

Still, with the personnel they have one would think it's only a matter of time before they tighten things up. Perhaps they can do so tonight when they play host to a defensive-minded Ottawa team missing their best player.

Here are the projected lineups:

Calgary

Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Curtis Lazar
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik
Kris Versteeg - Sam Bennett - Jaromir Jagr
Michael Ferland - Matt Stajan - Troy Brouwer

Mark Giordano - Dougie Hamilton
T.J. Brodie - Travis Hamonic
Matt Bartkowski - Michael Stone

Mike Smith

Ottawa (via DailyFaceoff.com)

Zack Smith - Kyle Turris - Ryan Dzingel
Bobby Ryan - Derick Brassard - Mark Stone
Tom Pyatt - J.G. Pageau - Mike Hoffman
Nate Thompson - Logan Brown - Alex Burrows

Dion Phaneuf - Chris Wideman
Frederik Claesson - Cody Ceci
Mark Borowiecki - Thomas Chabot

Craig Anderson

Five things to watch:

1) As surprising as it is to say, Calgary ranks 31st in 5v5 shot attempts against per 60, shots against per 60, and xGA/60 (expected goals against). If they're going to win again tonight, they'll need to be much better in their own zone.

2) The Pyatt - Pageau - Hoffman line has been caved in at 5v5. Assuming the top two lines play primarily against each other, which seems like a reasonable bet, I think the Flames third line could take advantage of Ottawa's, especially if Jaromir Jagr has knocked off the rust.

3) Smith has been spectacular thus far, stopping 152 of the 160 shots he's faced through four games. His save percentage of .950 is obviously unsustainably high, but the Flames need him to continue performing at a high level until their defensive play improves. If they keep playing like they have been, and Smith falters, it won't be pretty.

4) Tkachuk has drawn a league-leading five penalties at 5v5 and is second on the Flames with nine chances in that game state. He was great as a rookie, but he's taken his game up a notch in the first few games. Look for that to continue against an Ottawa team that isn't exactly loaded with high-end personnel on defense.

5) Ottawa's power play is bottom-5 in generating chances and bottom-5 in preventing short-handed chances. Don't be surprised if the Flames are able to get some good looks while down a man.

Puck drop is just after 9:00ET/7:00MT and can be seen on SNF, RDS, and TSN5.

Recent posts:

Five takeaways from Calgary's overtime win over Los Angeles

Five takeaways from Calgary's streak-snapping win in Anaheim

Five takeaways from Calgary's convincing win over Winnipeg

Predicting the Pacific Division standings

Flames sign Tanner Glass to one-year deal

Flames sign Jaromir Jagr to one-year deal
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