The Pittsburgh Penguins will attempt to pursue Jimmy Vesey

I can confirm that the Penguins will meet today with Jimmy Vesey.

— Josh Yohe (@JoshYohe_PGH) August 16, 2016

This isn't ground breaking because they aren't in particularly great shape at the left wing position and they wouldn't have to use any assets to acquire Vesey. There will be a lot of teams in the hunt for him, but few provide a better hockey situation to jump into.

There are a few variables at play that need to be discussed. The first is if he is worth giving the money to anyways. Despite being a popular player to talk about the past few months he is not a sure thing to find NHL success. He is relatively old for a prospect and has no professional experience to speak of.

The later players leave the college ranks the lower their chances of finding NHL success.

Graduation rates of Fs NCAAers -> NHL by age
17: 17.24%
18: 11.55%
19: 5.86%
20: 3.42%
21: 2.64%
22: 1.38%
23: 0.82%
24: 0.55%
25: 0%

— Josh Weissbock (@joshweissbock) July 21, 2015

Vesey is currently 23 years old. He did win a Hobey Baker Award as college's best player, but that doesn't mean anything as far as future NHL success. The history of players who have won that award is sporadic at best and not useful as a predictive measure. A lot of the more prominent names on this list were not four year college players. Two of the more prominent ones (Kariya, Eichel) were one and done.

The Hobey Baker Award - "A list of people you have never heard of" pic.twitter.com/V6XvM81fgj

— DTM About Heart (@DTMAboutHeart) August 16, 2016

Also worth noting for perspective.

Helpful factoid when voting: roughly 25% of forwards who play at least 60 games a year don't hit 10 goals. https://t.co/SVvUG074En

— Matt Cane (@Cane_Matt) August 15, 2016

Any contract he signs is going to be a two year ELC that comes with bonus money that will bleed into the 2017-18 salary cap. You aren't necessarily going to break the bank to sign Vesey but you are definitely taking a sizable risk if you are a team like the Penguins that spends to the cap ceiling most years.

Max deal for Vesey would be:
2 yr @ $925,000 cap hit, $3.775M AAV
$832,500 salary
$92,500 SB
$2.85M perf bonuses https://t.co/GGaKGY6V5C

— General Fanager (@generalfanager) August 14, 2016

While it is true that the amount of money will be similar no matter where Vesey signs it is the performance bonuses that Vesey will likely be looking for that could separate the different offers. He is going to want to be able to hit those bonuses. If he is given easy bonuses to hit it may not translate to actual on-ice success. Also worth noting is that he will probably want the chance to play on the power play and that just isn't going to happen in Pittsburgh. Not playing on the power play has the potential to hurt his earning ability.

The good news from a Pittsburgh perspective that even if those bonuses are hit they should have a little bit of wiggle room on the 2017-18 cap to eat some dead money. Chris Kunitz and Pascal Dupuis' contracts expire. There would be no more buyout money owed to Rob Scuderi. There is a good chance that Marc-Andre Fleury's 5.75M contract will be off the books. It is also likely that Daniel Sprong will be ready to contribute full time at the NHL level on the cheap during that season as well.

Pittsburgh should definitely meet with Vesey and get all the information they need in order to make the best decision for their club, but I don't think we are dealing with an Artemi Panarin situation where the player will just jump right in and light it up. A likely outcome is that Vesey is probably a slightly better Conor Sheary with more cost and more risk. I think most of the teams pursuing Jimmy Vesey would be better suited to give Jiri Hudler a call

It is interesting to note that the Penguins have a guy on their roster that went through this exact situation. That player is Justin Schultz. The decision to join the Oilers did not work out for Schultz. They expected way too much from him and they played him in a role that was outside of his ability. Schultz was only 21 years old when he left and could be considered a youngish prospect. Vesey is not a young prospect at the age of 23. He is going to have to hit the ground running. For Vesey to make sense for the Penguins he will have to be a top six player. Is that setting Vesey up to fail just like how the Oilers forced Schultz into a role above what he was capable of?

Can the Penguins take a run at Vesey? Sure, they could make the money work. Should they take a run at Vesey? I'm not quite so sure there. I can't kill the team for doing it but at the same time it seems like a lot of risk for something that is far from a sure thing. The prudent course of action might be to just let players like Sheary, Wilson, Guentzel, and Blueger fight for those spots on the roster with no risk attached or give Hudler a call.

Thanks for reading!

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