The Pittsburgh Penguins made a deal in attempt to shore up their defense corp. yesterday when they gave up a 2nd round pick and Danny Kristo for Ron Hainsey of the Carolina Hurricanes.
“No, I don’t think so,” considered NHL Insider Elliotte Friedman during a Thursday afternoon appearance on Edmonton’s 630 CHED. “I saw Rutherford had an availability this morning and they’re three guys down now, right. The other thing with Maatta out and Schultz out – although he’s practicing today or skated today – and now Daley out six weeks; what they’re probably going to do is they’re going keep Maatta and Daley out (until) the playoffs, like Chicago did with Patrick Kane two years ago, and come back with added guys.
“So I think Pittsburgh will add another D and I wouldn’t be surprised if they add another forward too. They’re in it to win it, and Rutherford will go for it all and sort it out later.”
Rutherford has said himself that he will figure things out in the offseason so I wouldn't rule out a big deal from the Penguins as we head towards the March 1st trade deadline.
I have reservations about the Penguins going all in on this trade deadline. The first reason is because they are already a very good team. They don't need any big splashes. They lost one player from last year's championship run and it was Ben Lovejoy. They just traded a second round pick to replace his role with Ron Hainsey. None of the team's injuries should bleed into the playoffs.
Secondly, the NHL is a league where the best teams are rewarded less when compared to other sports. There's too much luck and variance in hockey to be confident in loading up your already good roster.
Tom Tango did a study about talent vs luck and Phil Birnbaum expanded on it a few years later. You can find the article
here
The findings about the NHL and talent vs luck:
1. For an 82-game NHL season like the last five, the SD of luck is 8.44 standings points.
2. The overall SD, which you can easily calculate from the official standings, is 12.3 points.
3. Therefore, the SD of team talent is 8.95 points.
4. That means the r-squared of talent vs. results is around .53.
5. From that, it follows that it takes 73 games until talent is as important as luck in predicting the standings.
6. Or, put another way: over an entire season, talent is more important than luck, but not by much.
The stat in #5 should jump out. The playoffs aren't 73 games long. So you have to ask yourself, if you already have a very good/great team when does it become overkill to keep improving it while sacrificing futures in big trades?
I am going to continue to stress caution at this deadline. Don't shrink that Crosby/Malkin window because you wanted that shiny toy in the window. Improving the team needs to be cost effective and have a long term vision. The short term product is plenty good enough. The Penguins are already the second best offensive team at 5v5 this year.
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Kevin Shattenkirk has been traded on three separate occasions.
The St. Louis Blues have either reached deals with the Edmonton Oilers, Arizona Coyotes, and Tampa Bay Lightning for defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk or have come incredibly close. On each occasion Shattenkirk was reluctant to sign a long term deal which killed the deals. In the case of the Edmonton Oilers it was for Taylor Hall. In the case of Tampa Bay the rumored contract offer was 7 years and 42M.
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I had
my breakdown of the Ron Hainsey trade yesterday. Today I would like to pass along that analysis of Matt Karash who covers the Hurricanes at the website
Canes and Coffee. It's always nice to get the insight of somebody who covers that specific team and that is what Matt will be providing today
Here are his thoughts:
Ron Hainsey has spent the vast majority of the 2016-17 season playing in the Hurricanes second defense pairing with Justin Faulk. The duo started the season apart but were quickly reunited and have played ~90% of the 2016-17 season together. Hainsey has also been a regular on the Hurricanes' league-leading penalty kill and surprisingly a clutch goal scorer and regular in 3-on-3 play in overtime.
Though filling a top 4 role, the Hainsey/Faulk pairing has struggled on the defensive side of the puck at times, especially on the road where opposing coaches steered their top scoring lines away from Slavin/Pesce. Recognizing that +/- can be misleading as an oversimplified stat, I think that Hainsey's minus 19 in 29 games on the road (regular partner Faulk is minus 24 in 26 games) is actually a reasonably fair reflection of their struggles matched up against the opponents' best. Higher-level shot and possession statistics that do not look as dismal, but I think that is because they do not do not adequately account for the high volume of high-quality scoring chances and defensive break downs by Hainsey/Faulk during some tough stretches on the road. At a basic level, I think both players allow too much time and space and lack quickness closing gaps on shooters, passers, loose pucks, etc. Allowing too much time and space is obviously a recipe for trouble against the elite NHL scoring lines that they regularly face on the road.
At a more basic level, while I do think that Hainsey has lost a step especially in terms of acceleration/short races, I think he still skates well enough at 35 years old. I view Ron Hainsey as being a reasonably solid #5 defenseman with a stay-home leaning. He is also capable of playing on the penalty kill. From my limited understanding of the Penguins' situation, he could be perfect. Short-term, Hainsey could be an adequate, experienced substitute in the top 4, and then maybe he slips back into the third pairing as the team gets healthier.
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Here is something interesting I found yesterday. Somebody tracked both Mike Sullivan and Peter Deboer's language they used during the Stanley Cup Final
For example here is how positive each coach was in their interviews during the Stanley Cup Final
There are other breakdowns as well. Interesting and different look at these two coaches.
Thanks for reading!
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