Some Perspective on Ladd
Today Gary Lawless tweeted out a series of thoughts about Andrew Ladd and his value. I think the thoughts are correct in that Ladd does have value but any GM looking at adding him to their roster for this year and beyond, and that includes Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff, shoudl consider a few things.
This year Ladd has had stretches of 3 games or more being held pointless 4 times for a total to 20 games. He has been held pointless in over 1/3 of his games played in some consecutive fashion.
Last year that same series only happened twice for a total of 8 games in 81 games played.
The notion of that Ladd is heating up may be a bit premature too as before this recent two game 3 point streak he had gone 4 games with no points after having 3 goals in 3 consecutive games. Before that modest streak he had been pointless for five consecutive games.
Ladd may be able to still battle and score but the question remains is he doing it with consistency as he has in the past? Yes he will probably hit another 20 goal season this year which would essentially be his 6 straight (if you include the lockout total of 18 in 48 gp) but is that remarkable consistency?
Here is the list of all players who have had seasons of 20 or more goals and how many times they have done it
Not so exclusive.
Sure one can say that Ladd has 6 goals in his last 9 games but he also has 7 in his last 25 games. So would the real Andrew Ladd please stand up?
Last year, Ladd’s bet offensive output year, set the bar high for him and most importantly fans’ expectations. Most fans would say something has changed but has much changed?
(all stats even strength)
2014-15: goals per 60 mins= .53 pts per 60= 1.53 Corsi For= 51.69% Shooting % 7.07
2015-16: goals per 60 mins= .60 pts per 60= 1.86 Corsi For= 53.98% Shooting % 7.5%
Here is Ladd’s HERO chart for 12-13 to 14-15
Here it is for 13-14 to 15-16
Notice the slight dip?
So go back the heralded 6 goals in 9 games. While teams want goals no matter when they come Ladd only has 2 goals at even strength in that same span.
Of Ladd’s 32 points 20 have come at even strength so far, 7 goals and 13 assists.
In 2014-15 it looked like this:
EV 12 goals 25 assists
All 24 goals 39 assists
13-14
EV 17 goals 19 assists
All 23 goals 31 assists
The idea or narrative that Andrew Ladd is a warrior who battles hard to get his points may be up for debate if not discussion. He’s earning less of his points at even strength where there’s less ice, more pressure and more battles. It’s also the situation when players spend the bulk of their ice time playing. It’s not a huge drop but like many players it’s a decline- a slow descent down but right now it would behoove any GM to understand why. Is it the team, the system, the roster or the player?
So as we currently discuss Andrew Ladd is this a player who should have turned down a 6 year deal for 6 million per year as revealed by the astute Elliote Friedman today? While it’s always possible to fit him in the roster based on cap space, we don’t know where the Jets internal budget is to spend. Also the notion that you have cap space does not mean you should be spending to the cap limit. The NHL is changing to spending money on the right players at the right time, not any player at any time.
If Ladd did indeed turn down that deal and the rumours that they were about 750,000$ apart are true then we have a pretty solid estimation that he wanted Kesler money. Centres will always be paid a premium and Kesler is a centre, a Selke calibre one at that. With a recent hot streak under way would Jets management be paying Andrew for today instead of what he’s going to do tomorrow and beyond? Probably, and that’s why the deal at 6 x 6 should be pulled. 6 years by 5.5 might work or 5 years by 6 but nothing more.
The trade deadline is one week away and I fully expect Ladd to be moved. I also expect him to be signed and I think that’s exactly how Kevin Cheveldayoff is expecting this to all go down too.
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