Before we wax poetically about the role and person of Andrew Ladd, let's talk about the hot topic in Winnipeg. Countless people coming to the realization that Pavelec is not good enough and perhaps he should be bought out this off season.
WHAT TOOK YOU SO LONG?
Part of being in business is understanding the business you're in and projecting it's future and your role in it. The Jets failed miserably at this with Pavelec, but any also went along for the ride in a sort of 'blind faith' following and that includes many members of the media.
This isn't about being right before they were but the recent 'awakenings' by some is rather frustrating now because three years ago they were standing like children saying:
Yes that's harsh but so was the rebuttals to the few who dared present that there was enough evidence on Pavelec already when the Jets could have used a compliance buy out on him. This would have cost them 8 million instead of the 15.6 million they will have spent on him by the end of his current contract.
If you believe for a second that the there was no option for Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff in the summer of 2013 to sign a starting goalie at less than the 7.6 million difference, then I have a CFL stadium in Winnipeg to sell you. I'll even do the repairs it needs first!
Since the deal started in the lockout season here is Pavelec’s save % averaged over these past 4 seasons .90675
He has average 44 games a season played, but this year due to injury he is only at 25 so far.
So let’s do some comparison shopping.
Here’s the
list of players who played at least 176 games in that time, had a save percentage of .906 or higher and faced 5102 shots or more.
So it’s a pretty exclusive list. It also says that if you are going to rely on a goalie for that much work he better be pretty damn good. That’s not Pavelec. But no one wanted to talk about that back in 2012 when he signed a 5 year 19.5 deal after coming off 68 game .906 season.
Here is
the data for 2010-11 to 2011-12 for goalies who had a .910 save %, played 126 games and and faced more than 3741 shots. Go back 5-6 years and you will see one of those players is not like the others.
The point here is that the Jets woefully missed the mark on Pavelec, many knew they had missed the mark and those that did said the Jets should use their opportunity(via compliance buy out) to get out of the deal.
They stood fast and now look where they are? A coach who seemingly does not trust his alleged number one goalie and a prospect in Connor Hellebuyck who can seemingly shoulder the load of work that Pavelec does but is stuck in the minors now due to obvious contract realities.
THIS WAS ALL PREVENTABLE.
This list
of goalies is from 2012-13 to now who have played more than 150 games and had a save percentage over .906 and faced more than 4000 shots.
Sort that list by save % and see where Pavelec is. Now go look at the contracts of some of the comparable players on that list. Pavelec was being paid like many of them back in 2012-13 with not nearly the history or pedigree let alone stats to justify it. Yet now, with one year left on his deal and the Jets trying to build with youth they have it’s time to buy him out and there’s no way he’s getting better?
This is from the same group that bought into the quote from Chevy that said ‘he still sees upside for Pavelec and that goalies can still develop at age 28’ (my paraphrase). Or the one from Paul Maurice that said ‘you can’t determine a goalie until you fix the defensive play of the players in front of him’. That’s the guy who had Mark Stuart as the second leading PK player by minutes played.
When challenged, the excuses came fast like the one about Tim Thomas being a nobody until Boston made him into what he was late in his career. Or how Bobrovsky turned it around in a new environment, or was he just having a bad year on a bad team? But none of them wanted to talk about Devan Dubnyk and what happened to him once away from Edmonton. No he never could have been the answer we were told. So which is it? A goalie can improve or he can’t depending on team and defence? I’m not sure what to believe anymore because frankly, so many agendas and near-sighted visions were being presented and stories changed all the time. So yeah he were are, buy him out. Or trade him if possible or do something because this was not preventable at all. It’s funny what one year does to those with short memories, you know the ones who said Pavelec had turned the corner when he had 3 consecutive shutouts to end the season and ‘will’ the Jets into the post season last year. Sorry Pavelec those friends and allies you thought you had left you high and dry.
Welcome back Andrew Ladd. I hope you get a warm reception tonight your time here should be remembered well and I hope you remember it that way too.
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