The Tampa Bay Lightning are on the verge of being eliminated and swept by the Montreal Canadiens in round one of the 2014 National Hockey League playoffs. Tonight’s game four matchup at the Bell Centre could very well be the last time that the Bolts take to the ice this season.
It’s not like the Bolts can or should sit back and pout about the situation in which they now find themselves. We can talk all day long about missed calls or bad breaks in game three, but at the end of the day the Lightning deserve to be in a 0-3 hole. Anyone who suggests otherwise probably needs to take off the blue glasses and face reality. Tampa has been outplayed, outcoached, and outscored in each of the first three contests.
All the talk of Tampa’s possession advantage heading into the series has evaporated; Montreal is controlling the puck and executing their system to perfection. For evidence of just how far the Bolts have fallen, take a look at this comparison of the team’s regular season performance and playoff performance at five-on-five close.
Obviously three games is an incredibly small sample size, but that comparison is pretty striking in a number of ways. The first thing that should catch your eye is the undeniable collapse of Tampa’s possession game.
The FF% drop is more than frightening. The Bolts were able to establish themselves as one of the better possession teams during the regular season, but have been relegated to bottom three status in the playoffs. That sort of change doesn’t happen solely because of giveaways or miscues.
I’ve already dropped the “outcoached” word a number of times since this series began. I’m going to do it again here.
Michel Therrien’s game plan is working. His team’s neutral zone coverage has been nearly perfect for three games now. By taking away space in the middle of the ice, Montreal is doing a masterful job of stunting Tampa’s ability to enter the offensive zone. That forces Jon Cooper’s troops to simply dump the puck in the corner and attempt to retrieve it.
Unfortunately, this Lightning team isn’t one built to retrieve pucks in the corner with ease. This Lightning team is built to play a skilled possession game. The Canadiens aren’t giving them the latter option, and Jon Cooper hasn’t been able to adjust. The result is that Montreal has dominated puck possession.
The second thing that really stands out to me about that comparison chart is the Lightning’s save percentage at five on five when the game is close. The Ben Bishop narrative has been beaten to death, but the numbers show that the big goaltender’s injury hasn’t been much of a factor.
Again, three games is a minute sample size, but Anders Lindback has played some incredibly good hockey when called upon. His save percentage in those close even strength situations through three games is actually an improvement on the team’s regular season average. Lindback hasn’t been the problem. One of the many troubles for Tampa is that Price has just been better.
The final thing to take away from that comparison chart is that Montreal is riding some very good luck, as evidenced by their high PDO number. While Tampa has seen their shooting percentage and save percentage sum decrease to a below-average total, Montreal’s has skyrocketed.
If you’re looking for reasons to be optimistic as the Bolts head into game four, don't look at that aforementioned chart. What you should do is look at certain segments of the team's game three performance. While they were far from great, the Bolts did at least show signs of life. That’s more that I could say about the first two games in Florida. Not only did they beat Price for two (three?) goals, but the Bolts also had a number of dangerous looking shifts. It’s not much, but it’s enough to think that the team might have a chance in this elimination game.
The bad news for the Lightning is that the task in front of them is a virtually impossible one. They were already facing an uphill battle after losing the first two games on home ice, but now they’ve got Everest staring them straight in the face. Only three teams in NHL history have managed to recover from a 0-3 series deficit and win; Lightning defender Matt Carle was a member of the last team to accomplish the feat, the 2011 Philadelphia Flyers.
If the Lightning are to become the fourth team in history to make the comeback, they’ll probably need to get things started without goaltender Ben Bishop. Despite participating in on-ice workouts, he is reportedly not ready to suit up in game four. That means that Lindback will likely make his fourth career playoff start.
One piece of good news on the injury front is that Steven Stamkos is good to go after taking a knee to the head in the second period of game three. The Lightning captain was noticeably woozy and struggled to get off the ice following the unfortunate incident, so it shocked many people when he was allowed to play in the third period.
I’m of the belief that the decision to let him back out there was the wrong one. Nobody outside the organization knows all the facts, but what we do know seems pretty black and white to this commentator. Stamkos admitted to telling the medical trainers the he had a headache after the collision. That alone should have been enough to keep him out of action for the third period of the game. The team’s decision to allow him to return generated some negative press from all corners of the hockey world.
The ultimate question surrounding the Stamkos return is as follows: Would he have been allowed to return if the incident happened in a meaningless regular season game? I think we all know the answer. TSN’s Bob McKenzie probably said it best:
It’s better to be safe than sorry with head injuries. Even in the playoffs.
While it would be a little bit rich (read: blindingly stupid) for me to suggest that Tampa will come back and win this series, I don’t think it’s much of a reach to say that they have a good shot to claim a game four victory. With a 3-0 series advantage, Montreal is likely very comfortable with the state of things. Everybody expects them to win the series. The Bolts, on the other hand, have nothing to lose. They’re playing with house money. With a solid game four outing, the Bolts can bring things back to Tampa for at least one more game at the Forum.
The brooms are ready, but will they be needed?
As always, thanks for reading.
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