Entering the gap between the free agent rush and when training camp starts up, it is time to start thinking about building an opening night roster. Here are my 3 burning questions with regard to filling out the forward lines:
1) Who is going to kill penalties up front. From 2012-13, Jordan Staal and Patrick Dwyer played about 2 minutes per game shorthanded. After that of players still remaining, the next 3 forwards in terms of shorthanded ice time were top-liners Eric Staal, Alexander Semin and Jiri Tlusty. There is nothing wrong with using some of your best players for this important job, but ideally you would like to have a couple bottom 6 specialists to eat up some of those hard minutes to get scorers more ice time when goals happen – at even strength or on the power play. With what figures to be a relatively inexperienced 3rd line, you have to figure that Muller is already going to lean a little heavy on his top 2 lines for production and key shifts late in games. They can’t do everything.
Of the collection of players competing for spots on the 3rd line, the majority are not likely to jump into a penalty-killing role. At least at the NHL level, the team has never really auditioned any of Zac Dalpe, Zach Boychuk, Brett Sutter or Jeremy Welsh. Drayson Bowman has seen limited penalty kill minutes. Though Elias Lindholm is projected to be an all-around center who could fit the bill, he will be making his NHL debut on opening night. In trying to improve from finishing 28th out of 30 in 2012-13, parachuting in 2 unproven penalty killers seems risky. Can someone like Riley Nash, Drayson Bowman or Elias Lindholm rise up and seize a penalty kill role?
If I was Jim Rutherford and felt pretty good about my lineup in general but wanted to make 1 more small move, this is where I would spend it. Unfortunately what is left of the free agent market offers little, so it might take a trade to add a veteran 4th-line penalty killer to the mix.
2) Who will play on the 3rd line? Gone is Chad Larose. Gone is Jussi Jokinen. If the Canes stack the top by taking another shot with the Skinner/JStaal combination and do not add another forward via free agency, it will take big steps in 1 of 2 ways to get reasonable 3rd-line production. Either talented youth with no experience like Rask, Lindholm and possibly a wild card like McGinn will have to grow up very quickly, or some combination of veterans will need to take a big leap forward in terms of production. When you look at the more experienced options’ their 2012-13 scoring production is underwhelming. When you project out to a full 82-game season, you get roughly Palushaj at 30 points, Dwyer at 28 points (playing 2nd line minutes with 2nd line line mates), Dalpe at 24 points (in a small 10-game sample size), Nash 23 points, Gerbe at 20 points and Bowman at 11 points. I am on record as separating Skinner and JStaal which could help balance scoring a bit and provide a scoring catalyst for a 3rd line. Minus that the current roster leaves you trying to find magical chemistry that takes 3 25ish point players, sees them fit perfectly and reaps rewards with much better results than any logical math-based projection would have yielded.
I think the key is Lindholm. If he is NHL-ready and can provide reasonable 3rd-line production and gel with line mates, then there is hope. Minus this, it just feels too much like the team is trying to take 3 2012-13 4th-liners and hoping to go 3 for 3 in terms of seeing them take a big leap in terms of production.
3) Who plays left wing on Jordan Staal’s line? I am on record as not liking the Skinner/JStaal combination and prefer to split them. If that happens, who plays left wing with JStaal/Ruutu? As long as he is not signed Brenden Morrow continues to be a decent option. The upside is that you get another bigger, physical forward and more grit and nasty in the lineup. And he could be a decent 3rd for playing a grinding, cycling puck possession game that keeps the other team’s best line hemmed in their own end wearing themselves out fighting puck battles against a bigger stronger line. The downside is that at 34, Morrow is not the most mobile and is probably destined for continued scoring decline. Minus someone like Morrow, I think Nathan Gerbe stepped into a very good situation to compete for a spot where he fits. Paired with Ruutu and JStaal, his size will not be as much of a liability, and his tenacious, pesky style of play fits well on a grinding type of line. The other player that I think could climb into the mix here is Victor Rask if he looks ready to play in the NHL. With EStaal and JStaal penned in as C1 and C2, the use of the #5 pick to pick Lindholm and a dearth of proven NHL wings, Rask is likely to get a look at wing at some point. It could be sooner rather than later. Patrick Dwyer could be the fallback if nothing else works simply because he did it last year.
Unless the Canes add from outside, my wild pre-training camp guess would be that Gerbe wins this spot if the Canes take my advice (ha-ha) and balance the lines out by separating Skinner and JStaal. If I get a 2nd guess it is Rask though he seems more likely to start the year in Charlotte and be a recall option unless he blows the doors off in camp.
If nothing else, the sheer volume of possibilities that make for legitimate battles to win roster spots should make training camp worth watching.
If you had to guess, who are your picks for 4 forward lines with and without Morrow? Do you think any of the bottom 6 (other than Dwyer) can step up and claim a penalty kill role? Which of the list of players who looked like a 15-30 point scorer in 2012-13 has the potential to do much more in the right situation? With the volume of openings and need to improve upon 2012-13, what other burning questions do you have with regard to the Canes forwards?
For a quick heads up when I post a Canes blog and/or to be part of the occasional banter on Twitter follow me at CarolinaMatt63.
Go Canes!
Matt on Google+ 
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»