We don’t know yet. That’s the answer to what the Oilers are going to do to address their blueline this summer. Certainly enough of the connected sports writers and broadcasters in town seem to think that re-signing Russell is part of the play, which suggests that we shouldn’t rule that out. I mean, the Oilers should rule that out, but we should prepare for the eventuality that they will.
Why we don’t really have a great handle on what’s going to happen is because there’s an expansion draft coming up and the Las Vegas Golden Knights are the ones in the driver seat. Unlike previous expansions, the process for Vegas should yield a couple really interesting players. Teams can either protect 7 forwards, 3 defenders, and 1 goalie, or they can protect 8 skaters of any combination and 1 goalie.
There are some other rules governing the expansion draft, for example, players who have not yet played the 3rd year of their ELC are not eligible to be picked, players with NMC or NTCs must be protected, and there are some rules about minimum cap dollars being exposed to the draft as well. It’s these rules in particular that favor teams like the Oilers but can hamper some more veteran clubs.
For example, Edmonton doesn’t have to protect McDavid, Puljujarvi, Nurse, or Benning. That means they can keep all of:
Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Lucic Nugent-Hopkins Eberle
Puljujarvi Letestu Kassian
Klefbom Larsson
Sekera
Nurse Benning
Talbot
They don’t really have a defender they need to expose outside of Reinhart that would be of interest to anybody. Russell is a free agent and they can guarantee keeping the other 5 starting defenders. The entire top 6 plus their specialist center, best prospect, and ol’ Crazy Eyes Kassian can be protected. The Oilers should be able to make it through Expansion losing someone eminently replaceable, but others will not be so lucky.
I’m not suggesting any star players will become available, but the teams with the strongest defenses are going to be losing someone that the 30 other teams will want. Edmonton is looking for a right hander who can play with Sekera or Nurse and improve upon what they have. It seems probable that the Knights will end up with a player who fits that bill.
But why would the Vegas Gold Knights trade a player they select?
The answer to that question is simple: They are going to lose a lot of hockey games and they know it. They know it’s at least 5 years before they’re even close to pulling out of the bottom of the league. They’re most likely banking on it. Building through the draft is going to be paramount to their long term success. Most of the players they select will become UFAs before or (at best) around the time they might start to be a good team.
However, if the Golden Knights can find a few quality players in Expansion then they can flip those players for picks and youngish prospects who will be part of the club’s development. Along the same lines, their cap space is also a good place to find value.
If a team, let’s call them the “Shmedmonton Shmoilers”, wants the Knights to select a player who is overpaid or has too much term left on a midrange deal then there’s an opportunity to make a deal. For example, the Shmoilers might have a player named Shmenoit Shmouliot who makes $4M for two more years. Maybe it costs the Shmoilers a 2nd rounder in 2018, but the Knights would then select Shmouliot in expansion. Now the Knights have a 2nd round pick in 2018 and in a couple years they can probably move that player at the trade deadline and probably guarantee another 3rd round pick in return.
But let’s get back to the defense. Some teams are ripe for the picking. One such team is the Anaheim Ducks. They have a major problem in that they have too many good defenders and a glaring injury/contract problem. See, they’ve announced that Vatanen, Lindholm, and Bieksa are all injured. Vatanen and Bieksa in particular need surgery and could be out months.
The problem is that Bieksa has a No Movement Clause. He has to be protected and his injury means he cannot be bought out. After that the next best two defenders on the Ducks are Lindholm and Fowler. There are your three protected Ducks under the 7-3-1 format. Some people are suggesting they can get Bieksa to waive his NMC on the wink-wink deal that he wont be traded. That way the Ducks can then protect Manson.
Maybe the Ducks go for the 8 skater protection format. That way they can cover Manson too, but if they do then that means one of Rakell or Silvferberg is getting exposed in Expansion. So perhaps they go for the 8 skaters, get Bieksa to waive his NMC, and now they can protect Fowler, Lindholm, Manson AND Vatanen. It's possible but definitely means one of their middle 6 guys is getting poached.
No matter which way you slice it, it will take some shuffling for a team like the Ducks to prevent a solid player like Vatanen or Manson from getting exposed unless the Ducks trade one of those guys away immediately. And, as we've established, Vatanen has a long term injury making a trade more difficult. The Golden Knights just have to wait until expansion to find out which one they’re going to get. And teams like the Oilers who are more interested in competing for Cups over the next 5 years have to make it their business to offer the Knights things they need more of than good mid-range defender.
The best things the Oilers have to offer clubs like Vegas are their picks and younger prospects. Edmonton has the 22nd pick in this Draft, their own 1st in next year’s draft, and a couple (though not many) players like Caleb Jones who will be in that 20 year old range and still not tapped into their ELCs. The prospect pool for the Oilers might not be that deep, but that’s no reason to turn down an opportunity to get better today.
We don’t know yet what’s going to transpire with the expansion draft. But I can say for certain that the Knights should finish the process with players the other teams will covet. This can be a Win-Win for potential partners Edmonton and Vegas. The Oilers can improve at the expense of their rivals and Vegas can turn assets they acquire for free into more bullets at the draft or players who can fit their timeline better.
Who knows how it all plays out, but I hope Chiarelli already has George McPhee on speed dial.
Updated from the original which suggested Montour could be available in expansion. It appears he is expansion exempt.
Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»