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The Curious Case of Jonathan Toews |
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A couple of years ago, whether you agreed then or not, there was legitimate debate whether Jonathan Toews had overtaken Sidney Crosby as the best all around, most valuable player in hockey.
While Toews did not and would not compare with Crosby in terms of scoring, he had 3 Cups at that point to Crosby's one. It was sort of an apples to oranges comparison, an elite scoring center with a very strong overall game, versus an elite defensive center who could be counted on for 65-70 points a season and off the charts leadership and other intangibles.
And the point of this piece is not to re-litigate that, but rather to take a look at what's happened to Toews since.
In 2014-15, the Hawks' last Cup season, Toews put up 28 goals and 38 assists and was a career high +30.
Last season, his numbers dropped to 28/30 and +16.
This season, before getting injured (day to day, upper body) a couple of games ago, Toews has 12 points in 21 games and is +2.
In my judgement, there are two questions here. The first is, is there really a problem with Toews—causing a drop off in his production? And if so, what might it be?
Looking first at last season, Toews equalled his 2015 goal total. In fact, 28 is about average for Toews. His +/- fell off considerably. But as we all know, that is at best an inexact statistic, affected by many other factors. A couple of those last year would be the team overall was not as good and had lost a number of key players from the previous season.
Not the least of which was #20, Brandon Saad.
As anyone who has read here regularly knows, I have often pointed to the loss of Saad (without an adequate replacement) as a big reason for Toews' drop in production since 2015.
In the age of social media, and with the usual adjustments in the balance of power throughout the league, memories can be short. But if you turn the dial on the WayBack machine to 2014-15, it can be argued that the line of Saad, Toews, and Marian Hossa was the best in hockey—a possession machine that scored and defended like no other.
After Saad left Chicago last summer, that changed. Some said Hossa was "on the decline," "couldn't finish anymore." Others said Hossa and Toews were the problem, "too many hard miles on them."
But that ignored the revolving door of misfit spare parts on their left wing, in a vain attempt by the coaching staff and front office to replace Saad: Marko Dano (who is probably better on the right side), Teuvo Teravainen (ditto), Andrew Shaw (ditto—who is really more of a true bottom six player anyway), even Ryan Garbutt.
The other thing the "Toews and Hossa are done" narrative ignored is that no team's star players had played more hockey (3 Cups, 5 conference Finals and two Olympics since 2009) than Chicago's.
So after a long summer of rest, this year, you see a rejuvenated Hossa and Brent Seabrook (another player deemed "finished" last year). Toews, himself, came into camp looking lean and ready.
Hossa leads the Hawks in goals (11), has 17 points in 22 games and is +6. But he's done much of that business during a longish stint playing with Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov.
Trading places with him on Toews right flank was the league's reigning scoring champ Patrick Kane. All is well, right? Meh, not so fast.
Kane and Toews have struggled to produce, to the point where Joel Quenneville eventually flipped the two right wings back to their old lines a few games ago. It remains to be seen whether that will remain the case for long.
But it also ignores the 800 pound gorilla on the other side of the ice. The left wing audition that this year has "showcased" Richard Panik, who after a white hot start, is now slowly fading back into what Mike Tyson once called "Bolivian," Ryan Hartman, Tyler Motte, and Nick Schmaltz. Four names barely distinguishable from the milkman (outside Blackhawk Nation). Of the four, Panik and Motte are really the only true left wings, and there's some debate whether Panik is.
Schmaltz, in terms of possession numbers and "looking the part," has probably been the "best" answer there. But the line has not exactly ignited—and that with Kane and Toews on it at the same time.
One thing you can't ignore is that for elite hockey players, continuity, timing and chemistry are everything. So a revolving door on one wing will disrupt the entire line. And if the players coming through that revolving door are inexperienced and playing out of position, that effect is compounded.
Go back now to the fall of 2012, when Saad was the learner just up from the AHL (where he'd actually had a half season more pro hockey at that point than Schmaltz or Motte had). For the first 20-25 games, playing with Toews and Hossa, Saad was like a deer in the headlights, completely non-productive and visibly driving his more experienced linemates to distraction.
But something clicked at that point, and the rest is hockey history.
So it seems the Hawks are banking on the same sequence of events this year. Because clearly, if the team can get the Toews line going like it was a couple of years ago, then coupled with the Anisimov/Panarin line, they will be a matchup nightmare come playoff time.
i will just offer my own opinion on the likelihood of that happening with the current cast of characters—and barring any significant personnel moves.
I credit Schmaltz for working hard every shift. When he started the year, he often looked overwhelmed and seemed to give up on plays. The kid is working. The question is, is he the answer at LW on Toews' line?
The thing that made the Toews line so great from 2013-15 was their ability to possess the puck in the offensive zone for insanely long periods of time and generate opportunities off the cycle.
Dubbed the "Man Child," Saad could play that game with two other power players in Toews and Hossa. Saad also added an element of elite speed on the opposing wing from Hossa—and that line could also burn you in transition.
Schmaltz on the other hand, is clearly, instinctively a playmaker—not a finisher. A good but not game breaking skater, on the small side, aware, high hockey sense in terms of where to go and what to do with the puck to set up plays.
But sometimes, as Patrick Kane circles the perimeter with the puck, looking for openings, you almost feel like Schmaltz is wondering what to do. And that could be why the coaching staff has bumped Hossa—more of a pure finisher—back up to that line.
Regardless, getting back to Toews, who does not turn 29 until late April, it is just hard to believe, barring some debilitating injury, that he is tailing off physically.
Just this blogger's opinion, but the problem is not with Toews, but rather the empty space immediately to his left. And I'm sure this will ignite robust message board discussion.
Panthers preview coming tomorrow,
JJ
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