John Jaeckel: The Curious Case of Jonathan Toews

Is Panik playing on the 4th line now?

*asking for pool reasons

A couple of years ago, whether you agreed then or not, there was legitimate debate whether Jonathan Toews had overtaken Sidney Crosby as the best all around, most valuable player in hockey.

And even a couple of years ago, this debate was a joke.

And even a couple of years ago, this debate was a joke.
- j.boyd919

Didn't see that coming!

I still think Toews has been playing hurt for quite some time now. I wonder if this latest injury is an exacerbation of something he was already dealing with? He and Hossa used to carry Carcillo. I have to give him the benefit of the doubt here. I can't imagine that a player of Toews' caliber absolutely needs Brandon Saad in order to be effective. He should still be able to spring free for breakaways as he always has, if nothing else. And regarding last year's stats, how much of the production total was empty netters and from the new OT format? Last year's numbers, while comparable, seemed to be a bit superficial.

As for Hossa, I believe he played hurt last year, too. Look, these guys are world class hockey players. When they aren't performing to the expectations we have, it's not just about not having a top flight LW. They should still be finding ways to light it up. Even without Saad, they still have two blueliners on the ice that haven't changed that much.

I personally believe Toews expects next man up. I think the better Saad became the less Toews had to do, as in create. I think the first couple of games Toews played were not so good, but since then he's been the consistent Johnny of old. My issue with Johnny is he plays like Saad is still the left wing? Kane's line succeeds because the puck is on his stick and the offense runs through him.

I guess the question I have is when they put Panarin on the top line why couldn't they produce points?

Hossa as you said plays with the Russians and they continue to score. Kane drops down and plays with the Russians and that line scores.

Even when Kane was playing RW with Toews it sure looked like Kane had no idea what Johnny was going to do.

No one here wants to see Toews succeed more than I do but this genuinely has me very concerned.

I personally believe Toews expects next man up. I think the better Saad became the less Toews had to do, as in create. I think the first couple of games Toews played were not so good, but since then he's been the consistent Johnny of old. My issue with Johnny is he plays like Saad is still the left wing? Kane's line succeeds because the puck is on his stick and the offense runs through him.

I guess the question I have is when they put Panarin on the top line why couldn't they produce points?

Hossa as you said plays with the Russians and they continue to score. Kane drops down and plays with the Russians and that line scores.

Even when Kane was playing RW with Toews it sure looked like Kane had no idea what Johnny was going to do.

No one here wants to see Toews succeed more than I do but this genuinely has me very concerned.
- BetweenTheDots

That's the big question. And I have no easy answer. You would have thought when they bumped Kane up, that would have ignited Toews, but it didn't seem right. I don't know. I also go back the Saad "Experiment" in 2012. Took 20-25 games for that to get going.

IMO Q could have left Kane with Toews a bit longer and given that more of a chance. But I also believe in the clear absence of a second top 6 LW (after Panarin), it's kind of rearranging the deck chairs.

That's the big question. And I have no easy answer. You would have thought when they bumped Kane up, that would have ignited Toews, but it didn't seem right. I don't know. I also go back the Saad "Experiment" in 2012. Took 20-25 games for that to get going.

IMO Q could have left Kane with Toews a bit longer and given that more of a chance. But I also believe in the clear absence of a second top 6 LW (after Panarin), it's kind of rearranging the deck chairs.
- John Jaeckel

Your article actually made me think about something,
Byfuglien 2010
Bickell 2013
Saad 2015
????? 2017

Every year we won a Stanley Cup a power forward stepped up in the playoffs

Looking at our roster we really don't have one of those guys, closest thing is Panik and are his hands going to get magically better.

I don't see why Q couldn't try putting Panarin and Kane with Toews on the top line when he is healthy. I thought the line of Panik/Anisimov/Hossa had potential. Three huge guys down low will be tough for any team to handle, and Toews has more speed and ability with the puck than Anisimov does. I think it would be worth more than a one period audition anyways.

I also believe the forward corps, as a whole, doesn't defend as well as it did in the previous cup years, which means JT is on for more defensive shifts. Previously, Q didn't have to hide any lines defensively. This year, it seems Toews and Kruger are getting more than usual. And secondly, with only Toews and Kruger as "good" face off men, that puts Toews back in his zone more. Although Ras is getting better, too.

I just think Toews is putting too much defensive pressure on himself, or Q is putting him in those situations on top of what you said JJ.

That's the big question. And I have no easy answer. You would have thought when they bumped Kane up, that would have ignited Toews, but it didn't seem right. I don't know. I also go back the Saad "Experiment" in 2012. Took 20-25 games for that to get going.

IMO Q could have left Kane with Toews a bit longer and given that more of a chance. But I also believe in the clear absence of a second top 6 LW (after Panarin), it's kind of rearranging the deck chairs.
- John Jaeckel

It's all a red herring.

Can anyone honestly say, after an early playoff exit and long summer (WC not withstanding because why the rejuvenated Hossa then?) there are ANY discernible differences in 19's game?

To wit, is he:
> stronger?
> faster?
> shiftier?
> better on his edges?
> quicker shot release?
> faster/harder shot?

If any of you can honestly say yes to any of these, then I don't think we need to worry. My concern is there's some hidden problem (like Bickell's, where we kept thinking he was falling down all the time or seemed to be so weak against opponents that it must be his knee still giving him problems).

I sure hope it's not the above.
Could it be the health regimen he's using? I suppose so.

All I know is, Toews is no faster, no shiftier, not shooting any quicker nor stickhandling any better, is not any stronger -- there is NO noticeable difference to this pair of eyes and if anything, some of these areas he definitely seems to have regressed.

Not good for Blackhawk nation.
Something's not right with him.

Your article actually made me think about something,
Byfuglien 2010
Bickell 2013
Saad 2015
????? 2017

Every year we won a Stanley Cup a power forward stepped up in the playoffs

Looking at our roster we really don't have one of those guys, closest thing is Panik and are his hands going to get magically better.
- BetweenTheDots

I think you're on to something I have touched on here in the thread once or twice. Toews seems to do better with power wingers on both sides. You can even point to Brouwer and Carcillo. Heck, Sharp can do some heavy lifting in the corners when needed.

On another note really like the energy the 3rd line was creating against the Kings, really made the Kings work hard. Vinny will learn to stop in front of the net instead of coasting and watching the play, missed out on a tap in goal. Hopefully the team as a whole is working on actually hitting the net with their shots, hopefully.

It's all a red herring.

Can anyone honestly say, after an early playoff exit and long summer (WC not withstanding because why the rejuvenated Hossa then?) there are ANY discernible differences in 19's game?

To wit, is he:
> stronger?
> faster?
> shiftier?
> better on his edges?
> quicker shot release?
> faster/harder shot?

If any of you can honestly say yes to any of these, then I don't think we need to worry. My concern is there's some hidden problem (like Bickell's, where we kept thinking he was falling down all the time or seemed to be so weak against opponents that it must be his knee still giving him problems).

I sure hope it's not the above.
Could it be the health regimen he's using? I suppose so.

All I know is, Toews is no faster, no shiftier, not shooting any quicker nor stickhandling any better, is not any stronger -- there is NO noticeable difference to this pair of eyes and if anything, some of these areas he definitely seems to have regressed.

Not good for Blackhawk nation.
Something's not right with him.
- savvyone-1

To my eye, he came into camp in very good shape, looked really lean and i have noticed on a couple of occasions, those old Toews power moves through the defense. All that said, I don't know if he sacrificed some strength in getting leaner.

What you DON'T see is an obvious Bickell-like (poor guy) deterioration. Until I see that, I still think it's a chemistry issue.

I also believe the forward corps, as a whole, doesn't defend as well as it did in the previous cup years, which means JT is on for more defensive shifts. Previously, Q didn't have to hide any lines defensively. This year, it seems Toews and Kruger are getting more than usual. And secondly, with only Toews and Kruger as "good" face off men, that puts Toews back in his zone more. Although Ras is getting better, too.

I just think Toews is putting too much defensive pressure on himself, or Q is putting him in those situations on top of what you said JJ.
- CanOCorn

Great.
F'ing.
Observation.

And I think the pressure comes mostly from Toews himself. Though I do know he had made it known to management in years past that he needed some relief on those draw situations. Which was why they went out and pursued Kesler and then Richards ibn 2014.

To my eye, he came into camp in very good shape, looked really lean and i have noticed on a couple of occasions, those old Toews power moves through the defense. All that said, I don't know if he sacrificed some strength in getting leaner.

What you DON'T see is an obvious Bickell-like (poor guy) deterioration. Until I see that, I still think it's a chemistry issue.
- John Jaeckel

Looking at his "goal by strength" distribution (Toews), adds evidence to your thesis:

Through last year, his PP, OT, SH goal totals have been rather consistent - it's been his 5X5 (where 1LW consistency would be nice) that has come off:

2013-14 5x5 = 20 PP/SH = 8
2014-15 5X5 = 17 PP/SH = 8
2015-16 5x5 = 10 PP/SH = 10 (OT = 5)
2016-17 5x5 = 3 PP/SH = 1 (so far)

Same with Hossa:

2013-14 5x5 = 19 PP/SH = 7
2014-15 5x5 = 12 PP/SH = 7
2015-16 5x5 = 6 PP/SH = 5
2016-17 5x5 = 5 PP/SH = 3 (so far)

For both, the special teams have remained fairly consistent - but the 5x5 have dramatically declined.

I think you're on to something I have touched on here in the thread once or twice. Toews seems to do better with power wingers on both sides. You can even point to Brouwer and Carcillo. Heck, Sharp can do some heavy lifting in the corners when needed.
- John Jaeckel

Following this line of thought, I'm a little surprised that they haven't stuck Hartman there for an extended period. I know you've stated a few times that he is truly a bottom six forward (and that basically all the rookies are), but he seems to be the one that can at least consistently bring that type of game.

Following this line of thought, I'm a little surprised that they haven't stuck Hartman there for an extended period. I know you've stated a few times that he is truly a bottom six forward (and that basically all the rookies are), but he seems to be the one that can at least consistently bring that type of game.
- Chunk

Whoever it is, I think they need to put someone there and stick with him. I think the two most likely candidates would be Schmaltz or Hartman. My only thing about Hartman is he really is Shaw-Lite (and like Shaw, probably best as a bottom six RW) and Shaw was only ok there last year.

Well I guess the debate ends here then because Crosby has found another gear and has never been a better player or more valuable to the team.

Well I guess the debate ends here then because Crosby has found another gear and has never been a better player or more valuable to the team.
- Dcoms

It never really was a debate. Blackhawks fans thought Toews was better, everyone else in the world thought Crosby was better.

Well I guess the debate ends here then because Crosby has found another gear and has never been a better player or more valuable to the team.
- Dcoms

Agreed.

I would disagree that he is the player he was a few years ago. Physically tailed off absolutely. He plays a hard game and may have hit his peak. Not to mention, and not dissimilar to Crosby, has had his brain rattled and missed significant time due to that.

More over; if we are going to continue with the Crosby comparison, Crosby also plays a very strong two way game, plays a hard game, and goes to the front of the net more than most players of his skill level and stature. Crosby also produces offensively with basically anyone. Probably not a fair comparison but its going to happen.

Toews is a very good player that has won an awful lot of hockey games but in the grand scheme of things is probably closer to a Bergeron than a Crosby and that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Still a top player in the league. Maybe not a 10.5 million dollar player with a less than ideal cast but what are you gonna do. There are worse ways to spend that 1.5 - 2 million. Splitting hairs is what they call that.

I think the whole better, best, most conversation is a little overdone. An integral part in 3 Cups basically cements his legacy. But after a rested summer, regardless of line mates, I expected a little more assertion of dominance. If I was going to guess at a possible cause, I'd say back injury based on the way he's moved around this year.

For a guy that has carried a constant weight the last few years to decide at 29 he's going to lose 10lbs in the off season (in a bigger NHL) and not look any faster you gotta wonder.

It never really was a debate. Blackhawks fans thought Toews was better, everyone else in the world thought Crosby was better.
- Antilles

Except that it was. I know a lot of hockey fans (not Hawks fans) that would have taken Toews in a heartbeat.

I would disagree that he is the player he was a few years ago. Physically tailed off absolutely. He plays a hard game and may have hit his peak. Not to mention, and not dissimilar to Crosby, has had his brain rattled and missed significant time due to that.

More over; if we are going to continue with the Crosby comparison, Crosby also plays a very strong two way game, plays a hard game, and goes to the front of the net more than most players of his skill level and stature. Crosby also produces offensively with basically anyone. Probably not a fair comparison but its going to happen.

Toews is a very good player that has won an awful lot of hockey games but in the grand scheme of things is probably closer to a Bergeron than a Crosby and that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Still a top player in the league. Maybe not a 10.5 million dollar player with a less than ideal cast but what are you gonna do. There are worse ways to spend that 1.5 - 2 million.

I think the whole better, best, most conversation is a little overdone. An integral part in 3 Cups basically cements his legacy. But after a rested summer, regardless of line mates, I expected a little more assertion of dominance. If I was going to guess at a possible cause, I'd say back injury based on the way he's moved around this year.

For a guy that has carried a constant weight the last few years to decide at 29 he's going to lose 10lbs in the off season (in a bigger NHL) and not look any faster you gotta wonder.

- fattybeef

He was looking faster during the World Cup and I thought it was noticeable more than a few times.

It never really was a debate. Blackhawks fans thought Toews was better, everyone else in the world thought Crosby was better.
- Antilles