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May as well just dive in.

Are the Hawks that bad? Or is Washington that good?

The Hawks were pretty bad last night. They did not look ready to play—and certainly were not mentally prepared for Washington’s speed and pressure.

All that said, Washington is good—and they were that good last night.

Washington was coming in on a 7-game winning streak where they have been dominant. The Hawks came in on a 4-game winning streak where they kind of squeaked by three mediocre teams and an injured decent team—all at home.

(From Twitter last night) Motte and Schmaltz have to be better than Desjardins and Tootoo—who don’t score any points—right?

Wrong.

Apparently a large cross section of the Hawk fan base has not figured out yet that hockey is a game where stopping the other team from scoring is as important as scoring for your team. Every bit as important.

Tyler Motte, Nick Schmaltz, Vince Hinostroza and Ryan Hartman all have more offensive upside than veterans like Tootoo and Desjardins. But the problem last night was not a lack of scoring from the bottom 6. It was that they were absolutely overhwhelmed by a big, fast, and somewhat skilled Washington bottom 6. When Motte and Schmaltz were in Chicago this year, they were awful in their own end of the ice and could not beat even a soft forecheck to break out. They would have been every bit as bad, or worse, than the Hawk bottom 6 last night—all of whom, including Ryan Hartman and Richard Panik, were terrible in possession last night.

Tanner Kero, the man apparently becoming anointed the Hawks new shutdown center to some fans (because “dat overpaid Krooooooger bum don’t score no goalssssss neither”) was 8%—that’s not a typo— 1 for 12 in the faceoff dot last night.

What’s your take, JJ?

My take is it’s one game against a good, deep, and very hot team in their building.

That said, the fact that the Hawks came out so flat-footed (and it’s not close to the first time that’s happened this year) is troubling. Because here’s the bigger concern: while the Hawks turned it around in the second period, somewhat, actually outshooting the Caps for that frame, they were still pretty soundly beaten the rest of the way.

There’s another theory floating out there that all the Hawk veterans are just on cruise control—“they’ll turn it on come playoff time.”

Aside from the fact that at some point, you have to wonder where pride and competitiveness kick in on a night like last night, that theory seems like a long bet.

Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook and the top 5 (because that’s what the Hawks really have, let’s not kid ourselves, Vince Hinostroza is a lot closer to Kris Draper than Brett Hull) were all firmly in positive possession territory last night.

But that’s where analytics—without the eye test—fail you. Most of the Hawk attempts were from long distance and the perimeter. A lot of Washington’s business was done in close while Brian Campbell (-3), Michal Rozsival, Kero and others played Keystone Cops. And Corey Crawford flopped around like a fish.

I don’t know if this team needs a serious bag skate, if that’s even the answer. Keith doesn’t look right. Nor does Toews (who was 25% in the dot).

Artem Anisimov had another one of his “I’ll show up for the second period—text me” games. And he also was underwater in the dot, but that you kind of expect.

I know, I know: "faceoffs don't matter." Except they kind of do. If your metric is possession based on shots taken and shots allowed. In a broad sense, you need the puck to take shots.

Rozsival is done. No big news there. But, I mean, he is really done. And playing him in a game like last night (unless Michal Kempny is sick or injured), is on Joel Quenneville. And no, Gustav Forsling would not have been the answer last night either the way he struggles against a big, heavy forecheck.

Maybe you can play Uncle Rozy every 5th night against Colorado or Calgary. But he will not help as anything but an emergency replacement in the playoffs.

More and more, it appears Kempny is, at present, this team’s 6th best defenseman. Yes, he makes mistakes but he also plays fast and heavy—something the Hawks needed a lot more of last night. In a game where Kempny could have learned some things that will serve the team later in the season or the playoffs.

But the Hawks are in first place, right? I mean, why so negative?

Barely in first, two points up, with 5 more games played than Minnesota.

Maybe this team just plays better at home than most teams do. And that will be put to the test tomorrow when a really good team—the 2nd place (for now) Wild—rolls into the UC.

The Hawks need to have a very good game, to put it mildly.

The “they’ll turn it on in the playoffs” theory gets put to the test, because this is a regular season game—for leadership of the Central Division—that is in many ways as important as a big playoff game.

And the Hawks were absolutely humiliated last night, there’s no other way to say it.

A good game turns that around somewhat—as Kruger gets set to rejoin the team, stabilizing the bottom 6 a bit at least, and the front office is allegedly working on adding another top 6 winger.

A bad game calls into question whether adding one player is enough, or even worth the cost of a big trade deadline acquisition.

I’ll preview tomorrow,


JJ

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