Late yesterday, there were reports by respected hockey writers Larry Brooks and Reynaud Lavoie that the NHL salary cap will settle at $72.8 million—which is exactly what I estimated a few days ago on the message board here.
For the Blackhawks, this likely means that they will need to part ways with a higher paid (or would be higher paid) player. The three names that have been "explored" by the team, as I have heard and reported here for several weeks, are Teuvo Teravainen, Andrew Shaw, and Corey Crawford.
Teravainen is now gone. I can say with some certainty (though no one has confirmed this for me yet) that one of Shaw or Crawford are likely gone. And very possibly, both will be gone.
Let's unpack this a bit more with an eye toward what makes sense.
As I have said repeatedly, in the face of a barrage of skepticism over why the team would deal Crawford, it is not simply an "on-ice value" calculation. It is a balance of salary versus ability and the availability of a lower cost replacement. And in that calculation, salary concerns vastly outweigh ability right now.
Shaw is easier to trade. He has no limiting clauses. There are teams who would love to have him. But the cost savings for the Hawks are not as great.
Crawford is a little more complicated: he has a modified no-trade clause that requires him to submit a list of teams—8, I believe—what I am not clear on is if that list consist of teams he would accept a trade to or block a trade to.
Crawford hails from Chateugay, Quebec, not far from Montreal. But the #1 job there is filled by a pretty good goalie.
I was told in February of 2015, the Hawks began to quietly explore the possibility of dealing Crawford last summer or this one—and two teams they had discussions with then, in 2015, were Edmonton and Buffalo.
I was also told 2-3 years ago that then New Jersey executive Lou Lamoriello is a huge fan of Crawford's and had reached out to the Hawks about his availability as Marty Brodeur's career wound down. New Jersey ended up dealing for Cory Scneider and Lamoriello is now in . . . Toronto.
And that's where, this morning, the signs are pointing as far as a destination for Crawford. I was contacted yesterday afternoon by a source I don't hear from often—but whose information is always solid—that Toronto would appear to be the leader as far as where the Hawks might send Crawford, and Buffalo would be second. Bear in mind also, when Toronto coach Mike Babcock coached the Red Wings, Crawford seemed to save some of his best outings for the Winged Wheel.
Trade discussions are always fluid and very hard to track when you're outside the team offices (obviously), so there could be other teams in this picture. Further, there is no guarantee that either rplayer is absolutely being traded.
There might some way the Hawks could ice a team next year with both Crawford and a newly-minted Shaw. The problem is, you are likely looking at likely 4-5 recent Rockford Ice Hogs in the lineup.
Some will immediately jump up and say "Yeah, play da darned kids!!"
Some will never learn. It's not like Rockford is teeming with top NHL prospects. We all know how Joel Quenneville, who has a lot of say in these matters, feels about "learners." And the likelihood is, a Hawk team relying on that many "interns" for regular minutes is going to struggle to make the playoffs.
So the argument then becomes, won't that happen if you trade Shaw and/or Crawford? Maybe.
But maybe, especially if you lose Crawford's $6 million in salary, you can afford to backfill some position or positions with some experienced NHL players or a nice fringe NHL prospect who can ore realistically step in and help.
A few names that could enter into these scenarios:
Nicolas Deslauriers. The Hawks have kicked the tires with Buffalo on this human bowling ball defender with a cannon of a shot.
Ryan Hartman. Toronto expressed interest in Hawk prospect Hartman (who is sort of a "Shaw Lite") last year—but if Shaw vacates, Hartman's value remaining with the Hawks goes up.
Stuart Percy. A puck-rushing defense prospect with the Leafs, the Hawks were rumored to have interest in him last summer.
Some have mentioned James van Riemsdyk, but his salary—and the fact that the Leafs likely want to ummm, keep him, make that very unlikely.
Could Crawford and Shaw's rights be packaged and sent elsewhere? Sure, if the other team has the cap room and/or the Hawks can take a lower paid asset back.
Other teams I would watch in this situation:
Calgary
Carolina
Islanders
Winnipeg
Columbus (for Shaw only)
Ottawa
Arizona
Philadelphia
Vancouver
Bear in mind also there are many factors that can potentially enter in here: three way deals, players from other teams whose contracts expire in 2017, prospects, picks.
As far as potential player movement and daily drama unfolding, so far, this is the best summer in years.
I will blog later the weekend with anything else I hear,
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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