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Much like last Thursday’s game, Blues fans might be encouraged by the Blues 2-0 win over the Flyers last night but unfortunately looking into the details suggest that caution is definitely needed. In addition to being outshot 26-16, the Blues were dominated on the advance statistic front. The Flyers were 50% better than the Blues in Corsi (60 to 40) and were 1/3 better in expected goals for. A high shooting percentage (12.5%) and some good and perhaps a bit lucky goaltending were more the keys to the game than an overwhelming team performance.
On the bright side, recently called up Kenny Agostino had a very strong game. In addition to his goal, he made a number of strong plays with the puck, especially in the offensive zone, and helped to create a few additional scoring chances. It’s hard to argue with a 5v5 corsi for % of 71.4% and a 5v5 fenwick for % of 70.6%. He also seemed to avoid injury when being hit with an Alex Pietrangelo shot.
Interestingly, only three Blues players had positive 5v5 corsi for% (>50%) while six of them were less than 30%, including Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen, Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz.
From an outsider looking in who only watched part of the game, it sure looks like the Blues win was more a function of a lucky goal off of Stastny’s skate and Agostino converting on one of the few good Blues chances. It also appears to be the function of better luck in the goaltending department. From the highlights I saw, Carter Hutton appeared patient in net, appearing to be calmer and more efficient in his movements. His puck tracking, at least evidenced by his head movement, was definitely on display and was very evident on his save on Nick Cousins. What you also might have noticed was that he got a little puck luck and some timely defensive support. It looked like at least a shot or two hit the post and the defense was in position to defend or clear a few questionable rebounds. It seemed that Hutton had an above average game.
Speaking of Hutton, he has been feast or famine this year, especially in the last month or so. In his last 9 games, he either saves more than 95% of the shots or less than 85%. In those 9 games, he has 3 shutouts and 2 games below 79%. That is a crazy situation that says as much about the team as it does Hutton.
While the game did get the Blues 2 points and into the last wild card spot, I don’t think it did a lot to let general manager Doug Armstrong know whether he should be a buyer or a seller. Perhaps tonight’s game in Ottawa will help shed more light on that question.
The Senators are coming back home after a 1-2 road trip that saw them lose to the Buffalo Sabres in their last contest. The Senators may be sitting in 2nd place in their division but they are far from a lock for the playoffs as 3 points less would have them on the outside looking in.
The Senators are 14-7-6 at home this season and are 1-2-1 in their last 4 at home. They will be looking to build on their 6-4 victory over the Blues 3 weeks ago.
As one might expect, Erik Karlsson leads the Senators in points with 44. Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman and Kyle Turris are all tied for the team lead in goals with 18.
The Senators have famous Blues killer Bobby Ryan who has 18 goals and 32 points in only 25 games against the Blues and up and coming Blues killer Mark Stone who is averaging a point a game against the Blues. While Karlsson does have 7 points in 10 games against the Blues, that average is lower than his career point per game average.
From the reports that I have seen, expect Andrew Hammond to get the start tonight. Hammond has a very strong 96.1% save percentage in his career against the Blues though that is based only on 92 minutes of play.
As to the Blues netminder tonight, Mike Yeo tried to play it coy last night when asked who would start. Will Yeo turn back to Hutton coming off the shutout and let him play back to back games? He didn’t face a ton of shots in the last two periods. Will he turn to Allen given how much Hutton got scored on three weeks ago against the Senators? Allen does have better numbers against the Senators. It will be interesting to see who chooses. The Blues cancelled the morning skate so you won’t know until later tonight.
Expect the Blues to roll the same skaters tonight:
Steen – Stastny –Tarasenko
Agostino – Lehtera - Perron
Schwartz – Berglund – Jaskin
Upshall – Barbashev – Reaves
Bouwmeester –Pietrangelo
Gunnarsson – Shattenkirk
Edmundson - Parayko
TBD
It’s a great day for hockey.
Fellow Hockeybuzz bloggers
Nashville Predator's Paul McCann,
Winnipeg Jet's Peter Tessier and
Minnesota Wild's Dan Wallace have generously agreed to a friendly charity wager. We were hoping to do the whole division but don't have it fully represented yet. The blogger whose team finishes the highest the standings at the end of the year gets to pick a charity to whom the others donate in their name.
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