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Today the Blues will be taking their second attempt at ending the season of the Minnesota Wild. They have the pleasure of playing in Minnesota at another unusual start time. This time it is 2pm CST (collective scowl from the Midwest toward NBC).
When you look at the Wild’s 2-0 win on Wednesday, I’m not sure we really learned a lot more than we already knew in some respects. Many of the same adages held true with the team with the better goalie winning, with the game being close until the end, with there not being a ton of time and space for any player and with both teams playing well enough to win but poor enough to lose.
When you look at game 3, the Wild effectively won game 4 because of a missed icing call that was immediately followed by a Jake Allen gaffe, the Blues not capitalizing on their scoring chances (see two hit posts) thanks to the improved play of Devan Dubnyk, and the Blues defensemen collapsing on a shot Allen would have stopped in games 1 through 3. It’s an over simplification for certain but those definitely were the keys to the resulting scoreboard.
When you look at some of the underlying statistics of the game, it’s interesting to note that the Blues outshot the Wild 13-10 in mid and high danger shots. Again the Wild had substantially low danger shots with 14, doubling the Blues total of 7. Of course, unlucky for the Blues, Allen’s error allowed one of those to go in. The rest of the stats for each team mirrored each other as they had the same number of shots, same power play lack of conversion, same number of penalty minutes, same number of takeaways, and very similar levels of blocked shots and face off winning percentages (51%/49%).
Speaking of face off percentages, one thing we did learn is that the Blues believed that the Wild had been cheating on face offs all series. Based on the action of the linesmen in game 4, it appears that they were. If you all are like me, you were aware that the defensive zone team is required to put there stick on the ice first. Many centers try to fake this by just touching the ice right before the faceoff. It appears this wasn’t the primary cause of the issue. I didn’t realize it until yesterday but the puck is required to hit the ice before the centers play it. I think much of the delay we saw on Wednesday was due to the WIld playing the puck before it hit the ice. If my memory is right, this didn’t always get the center thrown out of the draw which still confuses me but at least we have a better explanation for the face off fiasco that occurred in game 3.
As far as Blues player notes in game 3, it’s clear that Zach Sanford has good hands and some good instincts. It’s also fairly clear he needs to add some lower body and overall strength as he gets knocked off the puck and off his line a lot. Colton Parayko again got beat to the outside creating a scoring chance for the Wild. This has happened in the series more than Blues fans would like to see. It has us wondering if might be nursing some sort of injury as this rarely happened in the regular season. Also, in the regular season he would usually recover and close the gap or catch the forward but seems unable to do so this series.
Coaches Mike Yeo and Bruce Boudreau are in a small battle of gamesmanship. Boudreau used old lines in the warmup of game 3 while utilizing different lines that matched Tuesday’s practice in game 4. I wonder if Mike Yeo is returning the favor while implying that both Paul Stastny and Jori Lehtera will be both in the lineup in game 5. Based on the fact that Stastny practiced in his own spot rather than filling in for Alexander Steen who has been getting practices off, I’d say it is safe bet that he will be playing today. Is Yeo mention Lehtera being in the lineup also gamesmanship? I’m betting he will be in the lineup but I wouldn’t completely surprise me if he doesn’t play. If he is in, expect Sanford and Barbashev to be out.
With the lineup a little in flux, I’m guessing it will look like this:
Schwartz – Stastny – Tarasenko
Steen – Berglund - Perron
Sobotka – Lehtera - Paajarvi
Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves
Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo
Edmundson - Parayko
Gunnarsson - Bortuzzo
Allen
Also, both teams better play to the full end of each period. I think players will be looking to take advantage of the end of the period situations for hits based on Pietrangelo's hit on Parise.
Overall NHL playoff news:
- 41% of the games have gone into overtime with the road team winning more of the OT games.
- 50% of the Eastern conference games have gone to overtime.
- Road teams have one more win than home teams.
- The NHL playoff game goal total average is just under 5 goals per game.
- The Eastern conference is average almost 5.5 goals per game while the West is just under 4.3.
- Teams getting outshot in their series are generally winning – Penguins (W), Ducks (W), Predators (W), Blues(3-1), Rangers(3-2), and Capitals(3-2). Last year’s playoff trend continues.
- The top 3 goals against playoff teams are in the Central, including the Blues and Wild.
- Evgeni Malkin is the only player averaging more than 1.6 points per game, at 2.2.
- Phil Kessel is second at 1.6 points per game.
- Three of the top four goalie save percentages (min 2 games) are from the Central division.
- No surprise but the teams of the three lowest goalie save percentages (min 2 games) are all eliminated.
It’s a great day for hockey.
Fellow Hockeybuzz bloggers
Nashville Predator's Paul McCann,
Winnipeg Jet's Peter Tessier and
Minnesota Wild's Dan Wallace have generously agreed to a friendly charity wager. Since the Hawks won the division and JJ didn’t participate, Dan Wallace got to choose the charity. Dan graciously agreed to also donate since the Wild didn’t actually win the division. Dan picked United Heroes League (https://unitedheroesleague.org/) who helps keep military kids active and healthy while their parents serve their country, helping more than 40,000 military families keep or start their kids in sports through game tickets, sports equipment, camps and grants. Dan and I have made a charity on this series as well.
St Louis Blues Blogger • 
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