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A Deeper Look into Jeff Carter's 2015-16 Season

May 17, 2016, 4:16 PM ET [8 Comments]
Jason Lewis
Los Angeles Kings Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT



We are still incredibly early in the offseason. Heck, there is still hockey being played by Kings products in Ontario (Go see a game, seriously). However, there are some key questions to ask before we start getting into the season of re-signings, trades, and drafting that will open up at the end of June and on July 1st.

One question, that perhaps derives from a lack of better exploration or explanation of his play, is what happened to Jeff Carter? And in reality, there is not much to it.

Carter played 76 games this year with the Kings, missing six due to injury (seven if you count the game he left in having played 26 seconds). If you recall, Carter was on fire through the first portion of the year up until that injury, which seemed to be a wrist or hand related ailment occurring on a draw with Arizona's Martin Hanzal. After that things just seemed to take a turn for him, at least in terms of end of the line goals for and goals against.

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The goals against, highlighted in the second set of columns, went through the roof.

However, everything else in terms of advanced stats was pretty similar, with only a slight downturn coming in the second half. To be fair, there were jumps in almost every conceivable defensive categories for him in the first half versus the second, but they were all of the slightest margins (Example; expected goals against - 2.32 -> 2.5, Fenwick against per 60 41.49 -> 42.59). There was nothing extreme that would suggest Carter was playing with some sort of detrimental injury that would create some horrible second half versus the first.

In fact, most of Carter's individually generated stats went up, like individual shots for, fenwick events for, and individual expected goals for. So in theory, some of this dip in form in the second half would be as related to his regular linemate (Tyler Toffoli) and/or his position in the lineup (Center versus wing, 1st line versus 2nd) as much as anything else.

Even things like his faceoffs remained relatively unchanged at a 47.4% win percentage in the first set of games versus a 49.2% in the second half.

So in that regard it is kind of difficult to get a sense for the trend of Jeff Carter over the course of the year on an individual basis. Like most of the team, he dipped defensively in the latter half of the year. This points to more of a team wide epidemic and issue on the season (Perhaps the defensive corps or roster mixup......) versus simply Jeff Carter struggling on his own.

This is strictly in the micro sense of things though. When you take a step back and compare No. 77 this season to previous ones, there are many other things to look at. Just like trends within the season, there are trends from season to season that can help us understand things. Again though, it is kind of murky, because for the most part Jeff Carter has been Jeff Carter.

Team relative stats were at their lowest in both corsi and fenwick since his acquisition by the Kings in 2011-12 (In the latter category they are his worst Kings numbers), while his goal scoring rate was also at its lowest. And in terms of allowing scoring chances, it has progressively gone up as years have gone by, but more on this later.

However, his assist and point scoring rates were relatively high, as he became more of a feeder player to Tyler Toffoli and Milan Lucic. He logged his highest ever even strength assists per 60 rate this season alongside a white hot Tyler Toffoli. The goals may also turn around as Carter, like most of the Kings team, suffered from an extremely bad bout of shooting percentage woes. At 5.26%, that was the worst 5v5 shooting percentage Carter had endured since 2011-12, with a 7.38%.

All in all, there are a lot of things to be positive about when it comes to Carter. Despite standing on the cliff that is the NHL's twilight (early 30's and beyond), he had an anomalous year in many regards.

His partnership with Tyler Toffoli gave the Kings their most effective offensive duo through about two thirds of the seasons. While they went MIA for large portions of the final third of the year, overall it was a duo that provided the Kings with 55 goals and over 100 points between the two of them. Adding Milan Lucic to the mix only aided the two, as it added a different mix to the skill and speed that was already present.

The problem the Kings ran into with Carter for at least a portion of the year was his faceoff ability, and the fact that his line was pretty chance trade-ish.

Corsica Hockey puts the lines of Carter/Toffoli/Lucic and Carter/Toffoli/King at an expected goals rate of 3.18 and 3.27 respectively. It also, however puts their expected goals against rate at 2.26 and 2.41 respectively. War on Ice also puts Carter's scoring chances against per 60 at 26.65, sandwiched between Andreoff and Clifford for 5th highest allowed on the team. High Danger chances were ALSO amongst the 4th highest on the team, alongside company of the Kings 4th line forwards of Clifford, Nolan, Dwight King, and Andreoff. On the flipside, he, Lucic, and Toffoli were the three highest generating player in terms of scoring chances for (Outside of Nic Dowd in his limited appearances). That line, simply put, was a chance trading line. As mentioned earlier, this is something that has been moving up for Carter since coming to the Kings.

View post on imgur.com


Overall, this led Darryl Sutter to use Carter this year as we have rarely seen him used in his Kings tenure. He cushioned him on ZSO% (Zone Start Offensive versus defensive).



Be it by virtue of some more offensive leaning linemates, a personal preference, or perhaps a worrying notice by Sutter, the Kings coach deployed Jeff Carter in a way that perhaps limited he and his line's defensive responsibility. So while Carter did only see slight increases in defensive numbers, it came at the expense of being able to deploy him in more defensive postures. This may have had to do with the center's downturn in faceoff ability. Losing defensive zone draws is often a big no-no amongst coaches, and Carter's 48.5 defensive zone draw percentage and team low 47.3 neutral zone faceoff percentage likely instilled little confidence. In turn, this impact was felt by young Nick Shore, Trevor Lewis, and Vincent Lecavalier, whom all saw increases in defensive zone starts versus that of Jeff Carter AND their previous seasons.

There is often talk about how Darryl Sutter does look at statistical data in deployment/lineup choices/etc, and to an extent you can see that in how he tried to manage the minutes and usage of his team's most potent yet risky duo.

All things considered Carter's season was not all that different from previous ones, aside from perhaps turning into more and more of a specialist in terms of offensive zone hockey. You can't really say he had a downturn defensively, but he was protected a bit more which may have helped stave off any large bursts in goals/chances against.


What Happens Next Season?


Carter is an absolute key cog, and 31 going on 32 is an age that could potentially worry Kings fans. Offensively he is coming off a 60+ point season, so unless he sees a drop off of Dustin Brown proportions, Carter still has many years of productive hockey in front of him.

However, we did see something at the end of this season that may be more common place moving forward into the latter part of his career. The Kings starting using Carter at wing over center. It maybe happened for all the reasons listed above and then some. The Kings center depth right now is being pushed from several different areas. With Andreoff, Shore, Lewis, and Lecavalier all on the roster as natural centers, it became a bit of a log jam scenario in terms of getting the best players on the roster. While next season we may see the departure of one or more of those centers (Lecavalier for sure), there is no lack for depth. Nic Dowd has been downright tremendous with the Reign this year, and showed some decent promise in his limited time in the NHL this season. There is also Michael Amadio, who has transitioned brilliantly from the OHL to the AHL playoffs. While no one should expect Amadio to make a jump in 2016-17 to the NHL roster, it is not out of the question to think he is in the conversation alongside Dowd and Shore in two years.

This leaves the Kings with an interesting conundrum. Do they start to filter Carter in at wing in the top 6 in an effort to prepare for the future? While no one should really feel entirely comfortable with Shore or Dowd attempting to play a full time top six role with the Kings next year, it might be something of a necessary step as the roster evolves away from some aging vets and into a potentially younger incantation. While the early returns on a Carter/Kopitar wing/center pairing were mixed, it was a small sample size at a time of the year when the Kings were in a semi state of disarray. A top six wing group of Gaborik, Carter, Toffoli, and Lucic is not something to take lightly if you are an opposing team. There is also the option of giving Carter some more situational faceoff work, ala what the Sharks do with their center group. No. 77's versatility is still a major positive in that regard.

Nevertheless, it is a move with considerable risk given who the 2C could be. It also maybe signals a changing of the guard to a degree, and one that COULD damage the potential to win. It would be a bold move from Dean Lombardi no doubt. A one two punch of Kopitar-Dowd has way less meat to it than a Kopitar-Carter punch. The Kings have really made their success on center and defensive depth, and any movement away from Carter-Kopitar would almost be a long-term move rather than the short-term "Win now" move that we have come to see as of late. It would be a for certain trial by fire for whoever stepped in, but better now than later right? Maybe. The cost of transitioning a roster is not cheap or easy sometimes.

As far as Carter in 2015-16 goes, he was a good 2C for the Kings aside from his pretty rough faceoff numbers and some growing scoring chances against. His future is cloudy in terms of where he may end up on the roster, but overall you can still look at his $5.2 million dollar a year cap hit without cringing. He is a very good player, a benefit to the roster, and arguably one of the team's Top 3 players.

Next year could go in one of two directions. It could go in a way that challenges Carter to evolve his game late in his career in order to preserve him at a lower responsibility position at wing and perhaps (but not for certain) better prepare the Kings for the next step. Or, in option No. 2, it could ask Carter to prove that some of his more concerning numbers at center were a bit anomalous, thus keeping the nasty Carter-Kopitar tandem intact for another year.

We have until October (And beyond maybe) until that question is potentially answered.

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