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Sens lose to Flyers, Karlsson deal appears likely sooner than later

February 25, 2018, 11:19 AM ET [29 Comments]
Jared Crozier
Ottawa Senators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
I won't go into much detail on the Senators 5-3 loss to the Flyers, because it was more of the same old crap from the Senators and there were much bigger stories at hand in Sensland, almost none of which are good.

The Senators weren't in it from the start,with a couple more shaky goals on Craig Anderson that put them in a hole early, one that they couldn't get out of until they made it respectable with a couple of too little, too late goals.

That was the on-ice circus, now to the off-ice one.

Starting off with the #melnykout movement, which took another turn during the game when a fan had a sign that read "Trade Melnyk, Keep Karlsson" and security allegedly confiscated it. When another fan protested to security, he was removed from the arena.

Whether that confiscation was because of the content of the sign or because they were waving it at inopportune times and affecting the view of people around them is still up in the air, but the optics aren't good for the organization.

I get why people want the NHL to step in and do something, but in reality there is nothing they can do. Melnyk owns the team and can make whatever decisions he sees fit whether you like it or not, and he can talk in the media about whatever he wants, like it or not.

Most of the outrage comes from the apparently more imminent than ever departure of Erik Karlsson via trade, if not before Monday's deadline then at least in the summer. The Sportsnet guys even said last night during Hockey Night in Canada that Karlsson was on board with finding a new home, which was a relatively new development, at least being made public.

I am not a fan of Melnyk, and haven't been for quite some time. I appreciate that he rescued the franchise when it looked grim, but aside from about a 5 year stretch at the beginning (always derailed by those meddling Leafs), this has been a dumpster fire. Ludicrous public comments (forensic investigations into Matt Cooke for one), the Daniel Alfredssson departure(s), the bare-bones front office staff etc. all contribute. He is probably partly to blame for the Karlsson situation, but I wouldn't ante up the contract extension that most people seem to think he will get either.

I do pity Pierre Dorion, for he is in a no-win situation. He has to deal Karlsson, a trade in which the Senators can't win either hockey-wise or PR wise. At least Karlsson should net a decent return and it is Dorion's job to maximize that to at least minimize how much he loses the deal by, by bringing in quality and quantity to re-stock the shelves.

For those of you just tuning in and not reading my stuff on a regular basis, I suggested about 3 months or so ago that trading Karlsson at this deadline was indeed the right move to make given the current state of the team, the goaltending and the albatross of bad contracts that were present at the time. And they were also rumored to be moving their best pure goal scorer in Mike Hoffman at that time. At that point the Senators might as well deal everyone that they can get any decent futures return for not named Mark Stone or Thomas Chabot, and that includes Matt Duchene.

Karlsson is a legend in this town, the best player in franchise history, the most decorated in terms of meaninful league play-based hardware (with all due respect to Alfredsson's King Clancy and Messier Leadership awards) and a sure-fire Hall of Famer.

Those facts have earned him some goodwill from ownership, and if it were me writing the checks I would take that into account, but if he is expecting anywhere near McDavid money then there is a point that it is simply too much. He has had an atrocious season, and while that might be due to the off-season ankle surgery, that is a huge gamble to say that he will ever fully recover to Norris form. He will also be 29 when that extension kicks in, which would take him to 37 years old. I am sure he will still be a quality player at 35-36-37 years of age, but will he be $12M worth? I wouldn't bet on that either.


So you can make a case that trading Karlsson while tough in the short term and even tougher sentimentally, actually is the right move for the long run, if you can get sufficient return. And at this point the IF is moot and it appears to be a matter of WHEN.

The problem occurs when it changes from being a hockey trade to being a money move, and that is when Dorion is forced to attach Bobby Ryan's contract to a Karlsson trade, or find a third party to get involved. That money grab instantly reduces the return for your prime asset, and that is a problem in my mind. Yes, Ryan's contract is bad, but if you are a rebuilding team it is going to be at least 3 or 4 years (especially without that first rounder this year or next that is Colorado bound) before you are legitimately able to contend. At that point Ryan contract will be at or near its completion and it won't be a factor, so why try so hard to get rid of it now at a deficit other than being cheap.

The Senators tried the rebuild in 2010 but didn't go deep enough and toiled in the land of mediocrity ever since, except last year's Cinderella run to within a goal of the Stanley Cup Final. If they are going to trade Karlsson, and a this point they don't have much choice but to, they need to go all the way and get as many assets as they can and play the averages that some of them are going to pan out. This franchise isn't going to do it by bringing in high end free agents, so that is the only way it is ever going to work.

Melnyk won't win the PR battle unless it is a three way deal with Edmonton and Pittsburgh that somehow brings both McDavid and Crosby to Ottawa and I don't think Pierre Dorion is that smart.

And since the club is in that situation, they might as well rip off the band-aid quickly and knowing their window has closed, deal Hoffman, Duchene, Pageau, Smith, as well. Sign Mark Stone this summer to an 8 year extension and make him captain for the rebuild, sign Thomas Chabot to an 8 year deal as soon as you can (summer of 2019) as the cornerstones of the franchise and build around them.

Things were OK when the Senators had a highly respected hockey man in Bryan Murray around to keep Melnyk at least partially in check and put out fires as best he could. In hindsight, Murray should be granted Sainthood for keeping things on the rails for as long as he did, because since he has been dearly departed, the Senators have been a runaway train headed for the bridge that has been washed out. Every sport has their "bad" owners (the LA Clippers for so many years, the Florida Marlins, heck even the Ottawa Rough Riders and then Renegades if you want to look more locally). There isn't a lot you can do about it but answer with your pocketbook because he doesn't seem to care about the individual fan or more than the bottom line. I get the desire to boycott the team until he sells, but that is also damaging the reputation of the city and unfair to those who take the ice that do care.

You, the fan, are in a no-win situation, as is Dorion and the rest of the Senators organization not named Eugene. And while a Karlsson trade might be the straw that broke the camel's back, there were a lot of straws already there and this culmination of about a decade of poor management from the top has created a rebellion and a showdown that can't possibly end well. The seeds of discontent were sown a long time ago, and are now bearing fruit to the point where even the fiercest of rival fan bases have sympathy for Senators' fans.
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