Kevin Hayes signed a two-year deal worth $2.6 mil AAV on Friday, well in advance of his scheduled arb hearing on July 27. With the signings of Hayes and Chris Kreider today coupled with already inking JT Miller and Dylan McIlrath to contracts, the Rangers avoid arbitration again, as their last arb hearing was with Nikolai Zherdev. The only unsigned Unrestricted Free Agent is Marek Hrivik, but he doesn't have arb rights and is likely looking at $600-750k on a contract.
This is what I had predicted for Hayes:
Hayes, 24, was brilliant in his rookie season, and regardless of what the advanced metrics showed, he regressed last year. He finished with 14 goals and 22 assists in 79 games in an uneven sophomore season. Hayes is coming off an ELC but made about $2.8 mil in performance bonuses his first season. I could see NY giving either a one or two year deal and he will be a test case as to how much the team wants to squeeze him in negotiations. I could see $1.5-$1.75 in one year deal and close to $2 mil in a two-year deal.
I was pretty far off in my prediction, the furthest I missed on any of the big four RFAs. It's obvious the Rangers saw past his production issues, valuing the advanced metrics that showed how he drove possession was better than the hard numbers. In addition, the cap hit might have been impacted by the rookie bonuses he earned in Year 1 of his ELC. That in combination with the ELC cap hit for the two years upped the total dollars over the life of the contract resulting in the higher AAV than I expected.
For comparison, purposes. Hayes is getting $2.6 mil AAV and Miller $2.75 mil for the next two years. A comparison of their advanced metrics charts shows Hayes right there and better in certain metrics. While that's not the end all and be all, as actual production on the ice and in the records, not just per 60 minutes or metrics, is key, it also shows why Hayes might have received what he did in terms of salary.
Kreider was the only one one to sign a relatively long-term deal, though most of us wish he had signed for at least one more year. Miller and Hayes each got two years, which mean that each will be an RFA at the end of those contracts. If there is a quibble with what GM Jeff Gorton did, it's that he was unable or unwilling to give long term deals to Miller and/or Hayes, similar to what Victor Rask, Vincent Trochek and Reilly Smith received to buy out some UFA years at a lower salary than what likely will be the case in the future. Of course, it takes two to tango, so maybe Miller and Hayes didn't want a long term deal, opting to got for the bigger contract in the future.
In addition, especially in Miller's case, not knowing what the salary of the Rangers' other RFAs would be might have also impacted trying to sign Miller long-term. The Brassard-Zibenejad trade would have had an impact but that appeared to have been locked up even before free agency kicked off and all we were waiting on was NY to pay Brassard's $2 mil bonus on July 15. So the $2.375 mil savings between the two contracts was probably already factored in to all these negotiations. If you read Miller's comments after he signed, it looks like he is amendable to a long-term deal. I believe one can't be signed until after July 1, 2017 but if a deal is reached, the cap hit wouldn't start until the 2018-19 season, or after Rick Nash's $7.8 million is off the books, presuming he is still a Ranger then.
With all the RFAs eligible for arb locked up, the Rangers' 2nd buyout window is about to begin. it officially starts 72 hours from when Kevin Hayes signed and lasts 48 hours. Based upon what Gorton has said in the past, I am not expecting anyone, this really means Dan Girardi and Marc Staal, to be bought out. The excerpt from the CBA can be found below.
Buyouts Outside the Regular Period
Clubs whom have 1 or more arbitration filings may be permitted to perform a buyout outside of the regular window. This gives teams another opportunity to become cap compliant following an arbitration case.
As explained in Section 13(c)ii of the Standard Player Contract (SPC) [Exhibit 1 of the CBA], clubs are permitted to perform a buyout outside the regular period during the 48 hour period beginning on the third day after the final of a) settlement of the Club's final arbitration case. b) receipt of the Club's last arbitration award.
There is an exception to this buyout period (CBA Reference: Section 11.18; 12.3) if the arbitation was Club-elected (as opposed to player-elected) and the player did not receive a qualifying offer. In this case, a minimum of two arbitration cases are necessary to trigger the buy-out period outside the regular window.
The number of arbitration filings required to open the buy-out window outside the regular period are as follows:
Mininum Number of Arbitration Cases Required to Trigger a Buyout Window Outside of the Regular Period
Arbitration Case Min. Number of Arbitration Cases
Player-Elected 1
Club-Elected [Player received a Qualifying Offer] 1
Club-Elected [Player did not receive a Qualifying Offer] 2
Following all these signings, there is between $3-$3.5 million in cap room. The Rangers may not know what to do with such riches because they aren't used to having "lots" of room. Part of that room could go to sign Jiri Hudler or Radim Vrbata or Brandon Pirri, but that might eat up only $1 mil of space. Speculation now is rampant and has increased that these signings and terms mean that the Rangers will be even more aggressive on the trade market, with Kevin Shattenkirk's cap prominently mentioned. New York clearly needs an upgrade on D above and beyond what Nick Holden or Adam Clendening can and likely will provide. Getting a Shattenkirk or a Hampus Lindholm, presuming we believe those rumors, clearly would go a long way to fixing the defensive ills and holes on the back line.
All that said, Gorton has to get a lot of credit for the work done to date. New York is in a better position than many of us thought they would be in when the season ended and when Keith Yandle was traded, then signed by Florida. Work remains to be done but the cap space provides flexibility to close the aforementioned gaps.
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