Just a quick update. According to ESPN's Craig Custance, the second round pick the Coyotes have traded is dependent on Crouse making the NHL this year. So, it could easily be two 3rds that end up in Florida.
Also, the Coyotes already have two 3rd round picks next draft, the second of them being Detroit's, and the Panthers get whichever is lowest, according to Craig Morgan.
Finally, the Morgan reports the Coyotes as saying that Bolland is injured and not likely available for the start of the season.
Perhaps that means he will be on LTIR, and some people (completely unsubstantiated) are asking if he'll ever play again.
It is my opinion that all three of these new wrinkles to the trade help to improve the deal from a Coyotes' standpoint.
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Am I over-selling it?
I don't think I am. In a summer where the free-agency of Jimmy Vesey spawned approximately 30 blogs per day for the desperate-for-hockey-market, this trade is positively nuclear by comparison.
I make fun, but this is a good thing. The fact that so many people care so much about the NHL that Vesey - a fringe NHLer - caused a cultural phenomenon akin to the Macarena is pretty awesome.
In that light, today's trade is practically Gretzky to the Kings.
The Coyotes send a second and a third round pick in 2017 to the Panthers for the rest of David Bolland's contract and Lawson Crouse.
This is a trade made by the two teams who I believe - and I also think most would agree - are the two teams at the forefront of the analytics movement.
At this time, you can basically divide the NHL players, fans and management into two groups: people who think Eric Gudbranson is a first-pairing defenseman and people who think he's massively over-rated.
With these two teams making a deal together, there's a lot to unpack.
My initial response is to assume the Panthers won this trade. Moving Bolland and the three years of insane over-payment due to him is a win regardless of any other factors. As a team looking to compete for the Cup, a player who won't help them for a couple of years is definitely worth $5 million in Cap flexibility. Short of giving away Barkov or Ekblad to get rid of Bolland, it's hard to see how they could rid themselves of his salary and not win whatever transaction it happened in.
As you can see from the chart, Bolland is barely an upgrade over Antoine Vermette. Both of them are terrible and it's debatable whether they should even be in the NHL. That is to say nothing of Bolland's $5.5 million deal that has three more seasons to run.
The Coyotes, with the trade, are now damn close to being a cap team. Forget about the cap floor, they are only maybe two million or so dollars from the cap limit. While a lot of that money is money that is only applied to cap-hit and is not actually being paid out in real dollars, the owners are still showing a willingness to spend money never seen before with the Coyotes, and the GM is taking risks and being creative.
I find it hard to criticize that very much, even if I don't particularly like this deal. (I like it more if Bolland isn't going to play and if the second becomes a third).
Despite some risks, I think there's some good reasoning, from the Coyotes perspective, behind this trade. Lawson Crouse could be a decent player or he could provide one in a trade.
The Bolland contract won't matter too much because the Coyotes have almost $30 million coming off the books after this year, and most of their best players are far away from huge money deals.
Bolland is - if he gets healthy and is better than last year - potentially a pretty big upgrade over Vermette, and once the the team is competitive enough that someone is taking his roster spot, they can afford to cut him and keep paying him. Even saying that, you have to keep in mind that players who are 30 don't generally get better. At worse, he is probably still a slight upgrade, if he even plays.
Basically, there's very little risk to getting Bolland or taking on his deal. If he can get healthy and improve his play a little, he might even be able to make the team slightly better. There's no chance he adds value relative to his contract, but given that that is basically a write-off, there is value to be had from the Bolland side of the trade.
Lawson Crouse was picked 11th in the first round of last year's draft - Crouse seems like he might be your typical "power forward" type prospect that gets picked too high because of his size and grit. A tenet of the teams who seem to be most heavily invested in "analytics" is that they value skill over size and draft strangely compared to traditional models.
Crouse is exactly the kind of player you'd expect the Panthers to divest themselves of based on their prior moves this summer. So then, it's a strange player for the Coyotes to want, given their similar aesthetic and also their massive collection of forward prospects.
(Strome, Domi, Duclair, Dvorak, Keller, MacInnis, Perlini, Fischer and Merkley)
The addition of Crouse gives them a solid 10 forward prospects, and he's, what?, at best, the sixth ranked one?
Then again, he does provide them with a balance of styles. An under-talked about component to analytics is the risk management side of things. The Coyotes have finesse in spades, but their prospect pool does lack the kind of game that Crouse potentially provides. Even if you believe skill always trumps size, it does make sense that when your team is ready to compete that you ideally would want players of various skill sets and sizes. That is to say that while you definitely should emphasize skill over size, you don't ignore size and grit all together.
Another thought is that the Coyotes could use Crouse as capital to acquire a defensive prospect to rival what is up-and-coming in the forward pipeline. A team like Carolina or Philadelphia is flush with D prospects superior to what the Coyotes have (Chychrun and Deangelo and maybe Connor Murphy turns into something). Crouse does seem like the kind of player the Flyers typically love.
But regardless of the team's intentions, Crouse is a decent prospect that gives them options and depth. Is he worth the two picks they gave up to get him?
That's impossible to say right now. On the surface, the Coyotes took a bad player with a worse contract and sent two draft picks in exchange for a B-level prospect who plays a position they are extremely deep in.
However, the player they took could potentially help them and doesn't really cost them anything real. If they are willing to spend the extra money, Bolland isn't going to cost them any kind of flexibility, which is the only real concern I have since it's not my money.
The second and third picks hurt a little because drafting being what it is, the best strategy just seems to be to make as many picks as possible and hope for the best. The Coyotes have drafted a lot in recent years and have one of the deepest groups of prospects in hockey. They are transitioning from basement dweller to contender, and yet, they have no need (or chance) to compete this upcoming season. They also had an extra second round pick lying around from another trade (Detroit's).
They might end up with a good player in Crouse. His value might also be way higher than a second a third-round pick if you don't attach taking on David Bolland's contract to acquire him, so flipping him is could be a possibility.
Crouse seems like the kind of player quite a few teams would over-value. The Coyotes could very well make a good profit on this trade.
At the very least, it gives them options. Teams don't generally stay at the 50 contract limit, and the Coyotes don't seem set for October quite yet, so I'd definitely be looking for more moves from them - sooner rather than later. (Note: Coyotes at 46 contracts, I was counting players who have contracts but don't count because they'll likely play Junior).
I think this trade is good for both teams. I think the Panthers win it, hands down, but only because they should be a Cup favorite this year and it's a smart move to clear the salary at the expense of someone they don't need.
But I think the Coyotes also win it, because for very little risk, they get some flexibility, some variety, and they get a player who, like it or not, is at worst, a slight upgrade from what they had in Vermette and who might end up proving to be useful. Maybe they also get a first line winger, though I highly doubt, based on everything I have read about him, that Crouse is going to be that successful.
The cost is a second a third that they easily recoup later in the year when they are not making the Playoffs and someone calls about Hanzel or Stone.
Is it possible that both teams made a smart trade?
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