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Habs Record vs. Reality, Perron and Oilers Tradebait, Subban a Mensch |
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Say what you will about the Montreal Canadiens' current fixture atop the NHL standings, they aren't giving the points back. You can't make a statistical argument that holds water to suggest they deserve to have racked up all the points they have, but that's the beauty of sports. It's not all about statistics.
Goal differential is a key category to evaluate the worth of any team, but the Habs' goal differential is largely skewed by six of 23 games.
Possession metrics are founded in logic. It's logical that the more you have the puck, the more shots you can throw at the opposition. The more shots you throw at the opposition, the better chance you have at scoring. And the more you score, the more you win. In reverse, the more shots you allow, the better chance you have of getting scored on, and so on. But the Canadiens are roughly a 50-50 team in that regard, and they've succeeded mightily instead of being average. There's no question that goaltending plays a large role in their success, and the team's shooting percentage at even strength ranks them eighth in the league.
It's hard to suggest chemistry and camaraderie make up the difference, but how else do you explain a team's indomitable will to come from behind in eight of their 16 wins? How do you explain 16 wins with a powerplay that can't score?
Health is a factor. The Canadiens haven't suffered injuries to any of their core players, and they've had the depth to balance out the lineup in different ways, at different times.
Luck is a factor too, though we can't point to many tangible examples of that beyond the health factor mentioned above.
These guys play for each other. They give up too many quality opportunities, but most of them are first-shot opportunities; rush opportunities. And they have a goaltender that stops the first shot practically always.
The Habs rank second in the league in blocked shots. It's a stat that can be viewed in two ways; they care enough to do this for each other, and they allow too many shots against. But unlike with Buffalo, Arizona and Colorado (who rank 3, 4, 5, respectively) you can actually look at both those reasons and not just one of them.
The Habs won't be able to sustain their success without getting off to better starts. They won't be able to sustain without a functioning powerplay--or at least one that threatens to score. But if everything stayed the same--their possession stats included--and these two things started to change, the conversation might shift dramatically to include the Canadiens as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.
So the question is, which way do you think this is all going?
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1) A lot of noise about David Perron. Highly skilled. Quebecois. Right-handed shot, comfortable on the left side. Powerplay injection. Reasonable cap hit.
There's a lot about David Perron for the Canadiens to like, but do they have what it takes to get a deal done that would bring him to Montreal?
Lars Eller on his own--on the stigma of being labeled a third line player--won't be enough in Edmonton's eyes. It's too hard a sell to their fanbase. Not that the Canadiens want to trade Eller right now for Perron, and it's pretty doubtful they want to trade Eller+ for him.
David Desharnais is the logical choice, and while he's proven he can be a rather productive player, he doesn't really fit with what Edmonton's looking for, which should be size up the middle or a bonafide defenseman.
And you have to wonder if Marc Bergevin is interested in more tinkering at this time. There will be other options as we near the trade deadline, and some well in advance of it.
2) If Bergevin's going to put a package together, you have to think there's a better target in Edmonton, and there are very few Oilers that are off-limits.
Jordan Eberle comes to mind, though it's hard to conjure the price Bergevin would have to play to acquire him.
Nail Yakupov has to be an option.
3) Maybe P.K. Subban likes it more than other players do, but when you see him out and about around town, it's fantastic to see how gracious he is with every single person that approaches him for a picture, or a high-five, or a conversation.
Observing from another table at a local eatery, I see Subban interrupted at least 10 times while he's trying to have dinner. He stands up to greet everyone who comes up to him.
On my way out, I tell him that--not that I'd expect different--it's very nice to see the way he treats everyone. And he retorts: "I don't just work here, I live here."
You can say whatever you want about Subban being attracted to the bright lights, but everyone needs their personal space; everyone wants to take the time to enjoy their dinner with the company they've chosen. You hope that grace he treats everyone with never fades, and while you expect it to with many other superstars, it's hard to imagine with Subban.
He really gets it.
4) It's gotta be hard to play back-to-back games when you've been sitting for five days waiting for them.
There's pressure in this situation too, especially ahead of the first one. Will you come out rusty? And if you drop the first one, then the pressure mounts for the second one.
And the pressure of dropping the first of two to Buffalo is pretty big too. Toronto nearly imploded after the Leafs lost 6-2 to the Sabres. Imagine what would happen in Montreal if the Sabres took all four points? It's going to be dicey if they take the first two.
Not like the Canadiens have gotten off to stellar starts in their games.
5) The Habs were practicing a 1-3-1 on the powerplay with Subban up at the top. The other four players were forwards with P.A. Parenteau, Max Pacioretty and Desharnais as regulars, and Jiri Sekac and Lars Eller taking turns on it.
They can work on different structures all they want, and the idea of running both units in different ways can throw their opponent for a loop, but until they figure out zone entries this powerplay can't possibly improve that much over a sustained period, can it?
Montreal Canadiens Blogger • 
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