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Canadiens in Year 2 of Massive Transition |
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It's hard to imagine the dust has already settled on free agency, especially considering Ilya Kovalchuk's indecision, but we have reached a point in the summer where things tend to lag. This summer has obviously been a particularly boring one for your Montreal Canadiens, so we can all be thankful that the weather is moving us quickly towards fall. And when fall comes, it'll be the onset of a year-long debate regarding the merits (or lack thereof) of choosing Carey Price over Jarolslav Halak, regarding the commitment made to Tomas Plekanec, and regarding the lack of available cap space at Pierre Gauthier's disposal to make this team better for the 10-11 season.
Though he's yet to put pen to paper, it's no secret Carey Price will be given the majority of the Canadiens load this winter. The team is relatively set: Gomez will pivot Gionta and Pouliot, while Plekanec and Cammalleri try to revive Andrei Kostitsyn. Lars Eller has moved in on Dominic Moore's supposed territory, and Dustin Boyd figures he can steal a spot on the third line. Maxim Lapierre has to be thinking about having a breakout season, while Tom Pyatt and Mathieu Darche have earned new contracts. Travis Moen remains in the mix, and there are some hopefuls from Hamilton that hope to factor in-- guys like Brock Trotter, Max Pacioretty and Ryan White. Andrei Markov figures to miss at least a month of the regular season, while Roman Hamrlik, Jaroslav Spacek, Ryan O'Byrne, P.K. Subban, Josh Gorges and Hal Gill attempt to keep the Canadiens afloat. There's hardly a name that stands out on the page, but this team will compete for a playoff spot. There's likely as good of a chance they miss as there is that they'll make it. But, everything depends on Carey Price. If Price is great, the Canadiens may very well be great too. If Price is bad, the Canadiens don't have much of a chance of being good. And if Price is average, well... let's just say I think Canadiens fans would settle for either extreme, rather than the middle ground.
Just yesterday, my doorman looked over at me shaking his head. I asked, "what's on your mind?" He bet me 20$ Tomas Plekanec wouldn't score 20 goals this season. His contempt for Czech hockey players who sign big contracts aside, I get the feeling that a lot of people around town share his pessimism. If he isn't the Plekanec from last season, moreover if he's closer to the Plekanec from 08-09 the Canadiens are in big trouble. It wasn't just a big contract Tomas earned this summer; the Habs need him to be a leader-- one who doesn't cower when things get physical. More money, longer term, much more responsibility. We'll see if he's up to it.
As for the missing cap space, Pierre Gauthier has his work cut out for him. Once Price and Lapierre have settled there isn't much money left in the piggy bank to make changes. Dropping Roman Hamrlik has been brought up ad nauseam, though fans who approach the subject seem to completely ignore the factors that will have him stay with the Canadiens--at least until the trade deadline. He has 1 year left on a contract that pays him handily (a contract he's been good on for 2 of 3 years), he can't be bought out, and the Canadiens need good play from him more than they care to admit. They can't afford to trade him (even if someone was willing to eat his contract) and create a hole to fill another hole, especially with Andrei Markov sidelined once again to start the season. Love them or hate them, these are the Canadiens Pierre Gauthier helped Bob Gainey assemble, and regardless of how well or how poorly they do, they might not be Gauthier's bunch to manage for much longer.
You can see the 10-11 edition of the Montreal Canadiens as a team in year 2 of a massive transition. Geoff Molson's decision to take over as President from Pierre Boivin at the end of this season makes a lot of sense, outside of the obvious that it was always his intention to do so. The team has a solid foundation: Price in nets, Markov and Subban on the backend, Cammalleri, Gionta, Plekanec and Gomez up front. After this season, roughly 23 million will come off the cap, with contracts up for: Auld, Gorges, O'Byrne, Markov, Gill, Hamrlik, Pyatt, Boyd, Darche, Pouliot, Kostitsyn. That's a lot of money to sign Markov and Gorges, and the Canadiens could pick and choose from there who they wish to bring back, with plenty of money left to fill spots on the open market. Some of those players have to be considered good trade bait if the Canadiens hit the trade deadline in a seller's position.
Speaking of transition, Guy Boucher has yet to be replaced in Hamilton. Though it would be the ideal ground for Kirk Muller to earn merit as a head coach, it's believed he's not too eager to move his family out to Hamilton. It's precarious that he's yet to accept the position, with no official word that it's been offered to Perry Pearn or anyone else in the organization. This blogger's been informed by rock solid sources that it is in fact the Canadiens wish that Muller assume that position. But should Kirk decide to stay in Montreal, and it's believed that's his desire, expect his contract to be extended in the near future. There have been other names linked to Hamilton: Guy Boucher's assistant and long-time confident Martin Raymond, and Montreal Junior coach Pascal Vincent. I can't believe we're this far into the summer and no one's been whispering about Patrick Roy taking over...there has to be a reason he didn't take the jobs that were offered to him in Colorado...but that's a topic for another day. Contemplate it while things continue to move gradually towards fall.
More to come...
Montreal Canadiens Blogger • 
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