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Analysts Unanimously Pick Bruins over Canadiens, Depth Cited as Main Reason |
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What a familiar story...
Not a single analyst/prognosticator, of the very many who chose Montreal to be skating for the Cup at the beginning of the season, chose them to beat Boston in the first round of this year's playoffs. The same people told you the Canadiens would finish 14th in the East last year. The same people told you Boston would be in the playoffs this season, but that a lack of depth would have them at the bottom of the picture.
Here we are, months later, and every single analyst from TSN, ESPN, and CBC has selected the Bruins to beat the Canadiens (most of them believing it'll take less than 6 games), sighting depth as the main reason.
Are the Bruins that much deeper than the Canadiens, if at all?
I don't think anyone would argue that they haven't had a better season, not only in the standings but statistically as well. But a team in Montreal was appreciated and praised for having just as much depth last season, and they added major components to their team last summer. Let's look at the lineups:
Savard-Kessel-Lucic
Bergeron-Recchi-Kobasew
Ryder-Wheeler-Krejci
Bitz-Thornton-Yelle
Chara-Wideman
Ward-Stuart
Hnidy-Montador
Hunwick
Thomas
Fernandez
*Ference, Axelsson, Sturm injured...
Extras: Sobotka
Koivu-Kovalev-Tanguay
Plekanec-Kostitsyn-D'Agostini
Lapierre-Latendresse-Kostopoulos
Metropolit-Laraque-Higgins
Komisarek-Hamrlik
Dandenault-Gorges
Schneider-Weber
Brisebois
Price
Halak
**Markov not officially out, yet.
*Bouillon, Lang injured
Extras: Stewart, O'Byrne, Sergei Kostitsyn
The top lines: While Saku Koivu cannot rival Marc Savard's offensive skill, he certain makes up for it in grit, deternination, and most importantly playoff production! Saku has 16 goals and 29 assists for 45 points in 50 career playoff games. Marc Savard has a goal and 5 assits in 7 career playoff games, and many would view his only series (against Montreal last season) as a disappointment, after taking several bad penalties at crucial moments of the series in retaliation of being roughed up.
Alex Tanguay doesn't have the size of Milan Lucic, but he has the experience of being a major element of a Stanley Cup victory in Colorado. He's also got 98 games of playoff experience at the age of 29, adding 58 points in those contests. Lucic will no doubt be a determining factor in this series, but Tanguay's experience and production in the playoffs cannot be discounted.
Alex Kovalev can be every bit as dynamic as Phil Kessel, and he's got a Stanley Cup ring to prove he can do it in the playoffs as well. Not only does he have a cup ring, but without him the Rangers would have never knocked off the Devils in that '94 classic. Kovalev has played 112 playoff games, and scored 95...yes 95 points in post-season competition! Kessel was the biggest surprise in last year's first round. Coming off being benched by Claude Julien, he popped a goal and 3 assists in his only 4 NHL playoff contests.
I don't think anyone could say that one line is vastly deeper than the other, but if one had to give an edge, the Canadiens top line should have it against Boston's top unit.
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Line 2:
There's very little doubt as to who has the upper hand in this match-up. Ryder-Wheeler-Krejci have proven their worth all season long, and their ability to provide secondary scoring seems much greater than that of Plekanec-D'Agostini-Kostitsyn. That being said, Montreal fans know all too well about Ryder's inconsistency, and Krejci and Wheeler have as little playoff experience as Plekanec and D'Agostini do. Montreal's second line has been in a slump for the entire second half of the season, so to say there's faith that they can consistently support Koivu-Kovalev-Tanguay would be an exaggeration.
Line 2 for the Bruins boasts more depth, and will be expected to provide a consistent offensive punch in this series. Not as much is expected for Montreal's second line, and if they can provide, the Canadiens will have a much greater chance at beating the Bruins than anyone is giving them.
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Bergeron-Recchi-Kobasew is as good of a third line as any in the league. Not only are they solid defensively but they can all make you pay on the scoresheet, and they can all play a physical brand of hockey, not to mention their ability to take a beating as well. They are undoubtedly a greater offensive threat than Lapierre-Latendresse-Kostopoulos, but Montreal's 3rd line has been getting the job done all season long. They are the energy behind all the Canadiens positive momentum on any given night, and they will provide secondary scoring no matter who they match up against.
Boston's line 3 looks better on paper, but Montreal's might have more of an impact on the outcome of this series. I'm content to call it a draw, as I believe many would pick the Bruins' third line over the Canadiens', and many others would do the inverse.
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Yelle-Thornton-Bitz represent a size mismatch that defines this entire series. I would go as far to say that Shawn Thorton is the best 4th line player in the league. Thorton is uncompromising in the face of punishment; he'll take any hit to make any play, and he won't back down for anyone on the ice, not to mention his willingness to stick up for any single one of his teammates. Bitz is another monster to deal with, and Yelle is a cagey vet and an apt penalty-killer.
Montreal has a different approach with Laraque-Metropolit-Higgins. Higgins and Metropolit will fill shutdown roles, as well as be the team's first penalty killing unit, while Laraque doles out the punishment as Boston will try to physically intimidate the Canadiens from employing their skill game.
Boston's 4th line is tougher, but Montreal's might be more effective. The edge goes to Boston's, with a strong possibility that Montreal's might have more to do with a win.
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The blueline is where things get interesting.
To start, Wideman and Chara have been the power-duo of the league this season. Chara will likely win the Norris despite Mike Green's 30+ performance this season, and Wideman has arguably been the most consistent defenseman in the league. They have the ability to make life painfully difficult for Montreal's offensive units, and they have a clear edge on Markov-Komisarek, or Hamrlik-Komisarek.
Stuart-Ward are an able second pairing. Stuart can move the puck, and skate, while Ward is a physical defenseman and a shot-blocking specialist. They are both susceptible in their own zone, and represent a slight weakness in an extremely strong lineup. If Montreal's second pair is Dandenault-Gorges, or even Hamrlik-Gorges, they are better defensively than Boston's second unit.
Schneider and Weber, or Scheider-Dandenault bring much different elements to the game than Montador and Hnidy/Hunwick do. Schneider isn't very strong defensively, and neither is Weber, though both can make you pay offensively, while Hnidy is a physical force to contend with, and Montador can skate an move the puck. It's a toss up between who has the better third pairing.
On the whole, Boston's defense is bigger and tougher, while Montreal's is more agile and skilled. Markov's presence, or lack thereof, is the determining factor in which team has the edge on the blueline. Without him, there's no question Boston holds the advantage, with him, Montreal matches up quite well with the Bruins.
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Tim Thomas has been the NHL's best and most consistent goalie this season. Carey Price has been anything but consistent. That being said it's Price who has the win over Thomas in the playoffs with decisive victories in games 1 and 7 in last year's series.
If the Canadiens are going to win, Price will have to be the difference, whereas Thomas has to be good, but not exceptional for the Bruins to win. So the edge in nets goes to Thomas.
I think even Bruins fans would agree that Halak is a better goalie that Manny Fernandez is, but experience is a big factor in the playoffs, and if both starters were to somehow get hurt or play themselves out of the net, it would be a real toss up between the back ups as to who could do a better job.
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So on the whole, the Bruins appear deeper, but not by much. And a strong regular season doesn't do much to reinforce that argument, as last season's playoffs showed.
So forgive me for snickering when every hockey analyst in the business says the Bruins will win in 5 because they are so much deeper. I guess my memory isn't so short as to completely discount the Canadiens' achievements last season, or their ability to be every bit as good as those analysts said they'd be as we prepared to drop the puck on the '08-'09 season.
It was a year ago that the Canadiens completed an Eastern Conference-leading season, after everyone said they weren't a playoff team. They didn't do well with lofty expectations overhead this season, but no one expects them to beat the Bruins. If I were the Canadiens I'd take that situation vs. the one they struggled with for most the season.
I get the feeling this series will be longer than anyone's predicted...
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Montreal Canadiens Blogger • 
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