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Projecting Canadiens Lines Part 3: Lines 3 & 4 |
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This is the last part of my dog days of summer series of line projections for opening night this season. So far I've made my case for the formation of the top two lines at the start of the year. The top, well rounded line of Pacioretty, Danault, Gallagher and the attack line of Drouin, Galchenyuk, Lehkonen (with Drouin and Galchenyuk being somewhat interchangeable).
The final two lines are not exactly easy to state with a legitimate case for their place, aside from Plekanec and Byron, as they will be fluid and ever changing throughout the year. The top 6 forwards are easily identifiable on this team. The bottom six has some limited skill and some great speed but also some risk and limited NHL experience.
My idea for the third line would be a line that could surprise a team with skill and stun with speed. A line like this helps to match up against top teams better and helps put away lesser teams and steal some points.
Third line: Paul Byron, Tomas Plekanec, Andrew Shaw.
Paul Byron was fantastic for Montreal last season. The generously listed 5'9" forward broke out last year with 22 goals and 21 assists in 81 games and scored on an astounding 22.9% of his 96 shots. Byron also produced a fantastic CF% of 53.9 playing an average of 15:04 a game that included minimal power play time.
As much as people complain about Montreal's propensity to use smaller players, Byron was a key piece to Montreal's bottom six forwards and penalty kill. Byron consistently put himself in positions for breakaway opportunities and he scored some clutch goals as he was responsible for 6 game winning goals last season.
Byron could see some time in the top half of the lineup should injuries occur but he thrived last season in his third line and penalty killing roles and it's safe to presume he will be placed in those roles again.
Tomas Plekanec is likely going to playing out his final season with the Canadiens during this last year of his contract that hurts the Habs cap at $6 million in space.
Pleks has been a fantastic soldier for the Canadiens. He's made the turtleneck his own in the NHL. Sadly, Plekanec is not the player he used to be. His overall game has been declining the last two seasons, similar to Andrei Markov. Pleks is a very serviceable, responsible 3rd line center but his cap hit does not represent good value for the Canadiens this season, or last season for that matter.
The 34 year old Plekanec saw regression across the board in 16-17 in what was his worst statistical full season of his career. He produced only 10 goals and 18 assists in 78 games. Plekanec took 50 less shots compared to the prior season (139 shots last season compared to 189 the year prior) and 109 less shots than two seasons ago. This past season also saw Plekanec play an average of 16:49 a game, which is also almost 2 minutes less per game than the season prior to last.
The hope here is that Plekanec can up his game as he tries to earn what's likely to be his final NHL contract. Plekanec is typically responsible but consistently soft as a defensive center. His role is likely going to be Shaw's after this season, for $2 million less and a heck of a lot more jam.
Andrew Shaw will round out this unit as an excellent compliment to Byron and Plekanec's games.
The 26 year old, 5'11" Shaw may be a bit overpaid for his current role ($3.9 million cap hit for the next 5 seasons) but that will look in line with typical quality 3rd line centers after this season when he should assume Plekanec's role.
Shaw had an injury filled campaign when he was concussed by a Tory Krug hit to the head as he was lunging forward to retrieve the puck. Shaw missed 14 straight games and Krug avoided supplemental discipline on the play. Shaw had put up 15 points in 29 games up to that point and appeared to be on pace for a career season. Shaw eventually returned and finished the campaign with 12 goals and 17 assists in 68 games and a great CF% of 55.1%.
Another key stat for Shaw that supports my presumption that he is the Canadiens 3rd line center of the future is his face off stats last season. Shaw was 54.6% in the face off dot winning 239 of 438 draws. By comparison Plekanec only produced a FO% of 51.2% winning 692 of 1352 draws.
This will be a stable line for Montreal if it can avoid serious and/or lingering injuries and all three forwards will be key pieces of the Canadiens penalty kill this year.
I will estimate offensive point totals of 15 goals and 20 assists each for all three players over a healthy season. It may be hard for Byron to keep scoring at such a high percentage if his breakaways get stopped more often than not. Plekanec should rebound a bit in a contract year. Shaw should improve over a relatively healthy season.
All in all, not the ideal third line I described in my paragraph before making my projection but it's not that far off either. When the shift is made to a line of Byron/Shaw/??? in 18-19 it could be exactly what I described earlier.
I won't dive too far into my fourth line projection. It's likely to be the line that changes consistently over the season so I will simply list who I believe will be starting opening night.
Fourth Line: Charles Hudon, Torrey Mitchell, Ales Hemsky.
Extras: Andreas Martinsen, Micheal McCarron.
The 23 year old Hudon finally gets his shot at LW after placing second on the Habs AHL team in scoring for three straight seasons. I think Hudon will come into camp ready and willing to compete and the Canadiens will have to keep him up. He has nothing left to prove in the AHL and deserves this opportunity.
Mitchell has been a cheap, serviceable warrior for the Canadiens and in doing so has also been clearly playing injured frequently. Last season Mitchell scored 8 goals and 9 assists in 78 games but won 54.5% of his face offs and had a CF% of 48.2%. So, while he is more likely to win that key draw, he's less likely to keep the play out of his end. Hopefully the addition of Hudon and Hemsky can push the puck away from the defensive zone with more consistency this season.
Ales Hemsky's signing is what appears to be becoming a Marc Bergevin tradition of acquiring a formerly high skill Forward that not many others will touch. The results have been mixed when he does this and I'm not holding expectations too high for Hemsky.
Hemsky was a near point per game player in the early days of his NHL career, but he was consistently injured and from 2010 on the injuries have clearly diminished his ability to produce points. The only thing for certain with Hemsky is that he won't be able to play through an injury and said injury is likely to cause him to miss a large portion of the season.
$1 million cap hit for one year of the 34 year olds services isn't handcuffing the Canadiens at all and is minimal risk for major rewards. Hemsky is clearly a skilled hockey player and when he is performing well he is dangerous in the offensive zone. But he is coming off a season with the Dallas Stars that saw him produce 4 goals and 3 assists in 15 games.
Last season Hemsky injured his hip during the World Cup of Hockey that limited him to one game during October 2016 before being shut down October 24th and having hip surgery October 31st. Hemsky returned in March and was promptly injured his foot upon his return. Once he returned from the foot swelling he injured his hip again.
Don't hold your breath that he will be a pleasant surprise for Montreal. He may simply be a tiny cap hit for a possibly finished, skilled player.
Points projections for these guys is even more of a guess than everything I've previously projected. But, if they remain healthy (IF) perhaps Hudon can put up 15+ points, same for Mitchell. Hemsky has potential to score much more but he's likely to be very limited this season. If he scores 10 goals and 10 assists and can be healthy for the end of the season that would be a successful gamble for Bergevin.
The extra forwards likely to be carried at the start could be Andreas Martinsen, a serviceable penalty killer with decent speed, and the towering Micheal McCarron as he begins full time training for his future role with the Canadiens.
Martinsen is a big body with NHL experience. McCarron is the likely 4th line center of the future for Montreal with hopes he can become a Brian Boyle type player. Huge and useful.
Other players likely to be called up when injuries occur are Jacob De La Rose, Nikita Scherbak, and Peter Holland. All these players have skill on their resumes but DLR is likely to become a quality bottom 6 Forward. Scherbak shows second line skill but needs consistency and work ethic improvement. Holland could be a serviceable fourth line center and might displace Mitchell if he has a good camp, but it's likely he will start in the AHL with DLR and Scherbak.
Thanks for checking out my thoughts on the Habs as constructed. I'm encouraging some constructive comments and opinions on players you think I'm undervaluing or overvaluing. Make your line ups known in the comments. Again, thanks for reading during these final days of summer.
OVERTIME:
I just want to say thank you to HockeyBuzz, Eklund, and the HockeyBuzz community for the support through this first month, plus, of my time here. I started giving my opinions shortly before Canada day and my first month went far better than I could have imagined. I am appreciative of the chance to chat Habs on this site and I'm more appreciative for all of you viewing these articles.
I hope I can keep providing you all with a (somewhat) logical opinion on things Canadiens and I also hope this season brings more positive articles than negative ones.
Thank you all again for reading.
Check me out on Twitter @BrandonSmillie where I mostly RT Canadiens and general hockey news.
Montreal Canadiens Blogger • 
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