Caniac nation has been celebrating the past week. Many know that the Hurricanes traded a third round pick for Scott Darling from the Blackhawks. The Canes used the Senators 2017 third round pick which they acquired at the trade deadline for Stalberg. Looking at the trade cost, GMRF should be very excited.

It wasn’t much of a surprise to see GMRF make a move for a goalie either—anyone who followed the Canes this year knew that the goaltending needed an upgrade. GMRF even stated in the post-season press conference that they would address the goaltending this off-season.

In the past, most goalies with promising stats and around three years of being a back-up or 1B, typically cost about a first round pick. Some goalies traded in recent seasons fitting that description who cost a first round pick are Schneider, Jones, Andersen and Lehner. Even Talbot cost the Oilers a second, third and sixth pick in the 2016 NHL draft.

Ultimately, this trade on the surface appears to be a strong risk/reward and well below the typical market value. Darling was set to become a UFA in free agency and was touted to be one of the more promising free agents. In his first three NHL seasons, in 75 games played (62 GS), he posted a .923 SV% and 2.37 GAA. Not too shabby…

Today, GMRF kept Caniac nation celebrating, as he signed Darling to a four-year, $16.6 million deal. Darling should provide more stability in net. He will immediately compete for the starting job and based off of his previous statistics could be the goaltending solution the Canes need.

Looking forward, it is likely the decision on keeping either Ward or Lack won’t occur until after the expansion draft or NHL draft. I wouldn’t be shocked to see GMRF move one (or both) during either of those two events. When asked about the future, GMRF was quoted by Chip Alexander with the News and Observer stating, “It’s our job to explore each and every possibility.”

While I did think that the trade was great, I have a few reservations on the term/amount that GMRF gave Darling. Based on what GMRF spent “money- wise,” I am not convinced that GMRF went “far enough.” I will probably be in the minority for critiquing the deal, however, hear me out here.

The first issue is that GMRF went straight to paying him as a legit and proven starter. The fact of the matter is that Darling is far from a proven starter and has only served in a back-up capacity. Also, he has played for an elite team the past three years. One could easily argue the possibility that the Blackhawks make their goalies appear statistically better than their capabilities/potential.

My second issue comes from looking at goalies who in recent years had similar sample sizes and comparable stats over two to three seasons. Looking at the 2011-12 through 2013-14 season and goalies with 35 or more starts, Khudobin was fourth in the NHL in SV% with a .926 and eighth in GAA with a 2.28 in 49 starts.

He was 27 years old and then signed a two-year deal in the off-season of 2014 worth $4.5M—aka a “bridge-deal.” The crazy thing about his numbers is that in 2013-14, he played for the Hurricanes, who were the sixth worst team in the NHL that season.

During the same three-year span, Brian Elliot was third in the NHL in SV% with a .927 and first in GAA with a 1.86 through 81 starts. The Blues signed the then 29-year old goaltender to a three-year, $7.5M deal.

Most criticisms offered when looking at those comps will note that the salary cap has risen some and that goalies are making a little bit more now. Here are many of the recent signings from the last off-season:

Raanta was signed by the Rangers for two years at $2M at 26 years-old. In 52 starts from 2013-14 and 2015-16, he posted a .914 SV% and 2.35 GAA in 52 starts. If you take out his rookie season when he was 24, his stats in 2014-15 and 2015-16 are fourth in the NHL in SV% at a .926 and second in GAA with a 2.10 through 39 GP and 30 GS (based on 35 GP or more). Despite having those numbers through two seasons, the Rangers gave him a two-year deal for a million each season.

Taking Raanta another step forward, starting in 2014-15 through 2016-17 (50+ GP), he is third in the NHL in SV% with a .924 and tied for second with Holtby in GAA at 2.17. He had 69 GP (56 GS) during those three years in comparison to Darling’s 75 GP (64 GS) .923 SV% and 2.37 GAA.

Frederik Andersen was signed by the Leafs for five years at $25M at 26 years-old. Andersen had a significantly larger sample than Darling with 125 GP (114 GS) from 2013-14 through 2015-16. He posted a .918 SV% with a 2.33 GAA. Also, he was used in a 1A/1B role and had started 53 games with strong stats one of those three seasons. Many believe Andersen has higher potential/ceiling than Darling too.

James Reimer was signed by the Panthers for five years at $17M at 28 years-old. When he signed with the Panthers, he already had 215 GP (198 GS) with a .914 SV% and a 2.79 GAA. It is worth noting that most of these stats came from playing for a relatively helpless Toronto team for six NHL seasons—not quite a Chicago caliber franchise.

Also, the Leafs traded him to SJS in the 2015-16 season at the deadline and in his eight starts with SJS, he posted a .938 SV% and 1.62 GAA—many believed this showed his capabilities more accurately and helped represent he would have better statistics if he were on a more decent team. Not surprisingly, this season in FLA he posted a .920 SV%.

Andrei Vasilevskiy was signed by the Lightning for three years at $10.5M at 21 years-old. He won the goalie battle in pushing Bishop out and provided a more affordable option in net. When he signed, he had 40 GP (34 GS) through two NHL seasons with a .913 SV% and 2.60 GAA. Many consider him one of the top “up and coming goalies” and I would be surprised if many think that Darling is better than Vasilevskiy.

Chad Johnson probably wishes someone believed in him as much as they did Darling. In his 6 NHL seasons (really only three though) and just after turning 30, the Flames signed him last off-season to a one year and $1.7M deal. He had 101 GP (88 GS) with a .917 SV% and a 2.39 GAA.

He also spent two of those three seasons playing for the Islanders and Sabres. His stats were decimated by his 2014-15 season with the Islanders, however, in 2013-14 with Boston he had a .925 SV% and 2.10 GAA in 27 GP and 2015-16 with Buffalo he posted a .920 and 2.36 GAA. Also, At the end of 2013-14 when he was 28, he signed a two-year, $2.6M deal.

Jake Allen was signed by the Blues for four years at $17.4M at 25 and forced Elliot out. He had 99 GP (88 GS) in three NHL seasons and posted a .915 SV% and 2.34 GAA. He struggled his rookie season, but the past two seasons before his new contract with the Blues were strong. He was also used in a 1A/1B role in 2015-16 and is three years younger than Darling. He fell under heavy scrutiny for his contract earlier in the season, however, he’s earning it in the playoffs now.

Calvin Pickard was signed by the Avalanche for two years at $2M at 24. He signed the contract after his first two NHL seasons as a back-up for the Aves. Looking at the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons (and goalies over 35 GP), Pickard was tied for second in the NHL in SV% with a .927, trailing only Carey Price. His GAA wasn’t too pretty, but let’s be real here, he played for the Aves.

Petr Mrazek was signed by the Red Wings for two years at $8M at 24. In his first three NHL seasons, he posted a .920 SV% and 2.29 GAA through 94 GP (83 GS) before signing this “bridge-deal.” Over those three seasons with goalies who had 50 GP, he was 13th in SV% and ninth in GAA.

Matt Murray was signed by the Penguins for three years at $11.25M at 22. This came off a smaller sample, but he also led the Penguins to a Stanley Cup in the playoffs. In 13 GS last season, he posted a .930 SV% and 2.00 GAA. Also, in the playoffs through 21 GS, he posted a .923 SV% and 2.08 GAA.

If you look at stats from 2014-15 through 2016-17 (50+GP), he is second in the NHL in SV% with a .925 and tied for 10th with a 2.32 GAA. Both statistics are better than Darling’s throughout those three years, and he is significantly younger too.

As for goalies who signed deals in 2017, Darling is the third to sign a noteworthy “standard player contract.” The Islanders signed Thomas Greiss to a three-year deal at $10M at 30 years-old. In 7 NHL seasons, he had 181 GP (156 GS) with a .918 SV% and 2.51 GAA (includes all 2016-17). However, when you look at his statistics before 2016-17, he had 111 GP (95 GS) with a .919 SV% and 2.39 GAA.

Michal Neuvirth signed a two-year deal for $5M in March with the Flyers at 28 years-old. He has played NHL games in nine seasons now. This year his stats were bad for the Flyers and seriously brought down his SV%. Despite that, he has 228 GP (204 GS) with a .911 SV% and 2.68 GAA. I think Darling probably should’ve fallen somewhere between Neuvirth’s and Greiss’ contract for two years.

The Oilers didn’t even give Talbot the “keys to the castle” until half-way through his first season with them. Looking at 2013-14 and 2014-15 (GP 50+), Talbot was first in the NHL in both SV% and GAA, posting a .931 and 2.00 in 57 GP (53 GS). The Oilers acquired Talbot in a trade and signed him to a one-year deal in 2015-16 for a whopping $1.45M. The Oilers extended him at the age of 27 with a three-year deal for $12.5M.

Just for extra giggles, Martin Jones is currently on a three-year deal for $9M that he signed at 25 with the Sharks in July of 2015. In his first two NHL seasons, he had 34 GP (29 GS) with a .923 SV% and a 1.99 GAA. You'd be hard-pressesd to find a goalie expert who says with a straight face he believes Darling is on the same scale as Martin Jones…

Based off of recent comps, Darling is getting paid to perform on the scale of Talbot, Jones, Murray or Andersen. If he doesn’t post a SV% above .920 and fall inside the top ten in GS, then this wasn’t a good signing at all. Looking at many of the comps and the fact that most of them contain younger goalies with what most experts believe possess “higher ceilings,” Darling is a risky signing because of the term and salary.

In fact, Talbot (73) was first in starts in the NHL. Andersen was second at 66 and Jones was third at 65. The only reason Murray isn’t up there with them is that he was injured this season throughout stretches. Other guys mentioned above who fell within the top 30 for starts with 44 or more were Allen, Gibson, Greiss, Pickard, Vasilevskiy, Murray and Mrazek. To put it kindly, Darling better come in ready to play 60+ games and perform—no “ifs” or buts” about it.

If Darling doesn’t perform and play like a bonafide starter, that’s a major problem. The next issue is that most likely no one will take his contract and term if he doesn’t pan out and has a similar first year to Lack’s. Paying a current NHL back-up like a bonafide, legit NHL starter, seems overly optimistic at best.

Given the amount of cap room, draft picks, prospects, and the fact that GMRF was willing to spend/commit four years and $16M+, is why I say this move didn’t go “far enough.”

Caniac fans should be happy because Darling is an upgrade. Most are so happy to have a goalie not named Ward that they are acting like we just acquired and signed Carey Price. However, they should also be disappointed by the fact that this will mark the third consecutive time that the Hurricanes have tried to replace Ward with a back-up or 1A/1B goalie around the age of 27 (Khudobin taken as UFA and Lack for third-round pick) and took the cheap route to acquire them.

Both Lack and Khudobin had strong statistics and neither fully panned out—the only difference is we didn’t grossly overpay them before getting results or give out a four-year contract. The difference is Khudobin made $850,000 his first season and Lack made $1.15 M. GMRF seems intent on taking the cheap route and hoping it works out.

Looking at history, the teams that “ponied-up” and paid the price for a younger goalie with elite potential haven’t been disappointed—Lehner, Jones, Talbot, Andersen, Schneider…

So, I will leave you with this interesting tidbit too. In 2014-15 through 2015-16 (40 GP+), Andrew Hammond was second in the NHL with SV% .927 and tied for fourth with a 2.17 GAA playing on the Senators. At 27 and during the off-season of 2015, he signed a three-year deal worth a grand total of $4.05M. Where’s he at again?...

If you include 2016-17, he is tied for seventh with Grubauer and Crawford in SV% at .922 and 13th in GAA at 2.34 in 54 GP. Remind me what Darling’s NHL stats through 2014-15 through 2016-17 were again…that’s right a .923 SV% and a 2.37 GAA. So yeah…at four years for $16.6M the Canes grossly overpaid Darling based on prior precedents and similarly situated goalies.

I lied…one final thing. Anders Nilsson posted a .923 SV% and a 2.67 GAA this season in 26 GP (23 GS) on Buffalo. Compare that to Darling’s 32 GP (27 GS) and .924 SV% and 2.38 GAA in 2016-17. He’s younger than Darling at 27 and GMRF said he loves Darling’s size. Nilsson is 6’6, just like Darling.

So my question is: Would you sign Nilsson to a four-year, $16.6M deal? Probably not. If you did, then you’d most likely be the laughingstock of the NHL.

Point being: Darling must perform from the start and see 60+games for this deal to be worth it. I certainly don't believe it made sense to offer this length and term to Darling regardless of the Canes being desperate in net. Despite that, the Caniacs should be happy because he is an upgrade.

I still question whether GMRF could've gotten a better/younger goalie by spending more in a trade situation, especially knowing that he could offer a $4M annual contract. I'd be much more comfortable if this deal was for two-years if GMRF really had to pay $4M+ annually for Darling.

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