DRAFT PROFILE: SERRON NOEL
Several mock drafts have Oshawa Generals right wing Serron Noel either projected as the Flyers' pick in the 19th overall spot or at least right in that range of the 2018 NHL Draft. I could be proven 100 percent wrong but, unless the Flyers' internal scouting reports were significantly different from the outside sources, I just don't see Noel falling within general manager Ron Hextall's risk tolerance comfort level in the first round.
At his pre-Draft press conference last week, while Hextall unsurprisingly avoided specific comments about any potential selection candidates, he did go into some specifics in reiterating the organization's top priorities that especially apply early in the Draft.
1. Positional preference for drafting junior centers over wingers. Even when the Flyers' scouts peg a junior center as a future NHL winger, such as with Travis Konecny, there is a belief that the most diverse skill sets at the junior level are more often found in centers than wingers. The Flyers organization is not alone in this belief. Bob McKenzie noted as much in his final TSN Draft rankings: "Scouts tend to be positionally biased. Centres and defencemen, generally speaking, tend to be more highly valued than wingers."
Nothing is set in stone, however. The Flyers (or other similarly inclined organizations) would opt for the natural winger in round 1 or 2 if they believe his offensive upside is significantly higher with a realistic shot at approaching his offensive ceiling AND if the majority of aspects in his overall game and intangibles check off the other boxes they want.
While Hextall noted that the Flyers would like to add goal-scoring depth to the system (not just in this year's Draft but in every Draft), he mentioned other things first, including a preference for centers and defensemen.
If the Flyers go against their usual grain and take a winger by non-trade up means, one of my personal favorite sleeper candidates this year is smallish but speedy, competitive and highly skilled Swedish winger Jonatan Berggren, who tore up the U18 Worlds as well as SuperElit juniors at home. However, I do not think he will be the Flyers pick in that spot unless they are in love with his potential to the point they'd be inclined to step up and take him.
If they go for a winger, I think it would more likely be a more physically mature type such as Martin Kaut. At the 14 spot, I think winger Joel Farabee is worth taking if he's there, but it sounds like he might still be on the board into the late 10s or early 20s.
2. Risk-tolerance parameters. The team that drafts Noel will do so based on the intriguing collection of raw materials they'd be bringing into the system. He's huge (6-foot-5, 203 pounds at age 17) yet he's a fine skater. He's shown hints of a physical game, hints of above-average finishing ability and hints of ability to create room for teammates or himself.
One could also say that the team that drafts USNTDP defenseman K'Andre Miller will be doing so for largely the same reasons. He's huge yet very athletic, talented but (as a converted forward who has only played defense for a relatively short period of time) raw. However, there is a key difference. No one doubts Miller's work ethic and commitment to improvement. He's already come a long way in a short period of time and is considered to have a rather high floor even if it is tough to predict how close he'll come to his ceiling.
In Noel's case, there is fear, at least among some, of a rather low floor (a potential outright bust) and shaky confidence right now in the player reaching his ceiling. Perhaps there is some recency bias at work.
Noel played well at the annual Ivan Hlinka Tournament and then he rocketed out of the gates in the regular season. He scored in the Generals' regular season opener and then compiled a hat trick (on three shots) against the Soo Greyhounds in the second game of the regular season.
The hot streak continued through the month of October. Noel had at least one point in all but one game. Through the season's first 11 games, he had racked up 14 points (10 goals, four assists). Noel posted three or more shots on goal in five of the 11 games and put at least two shots on the net in seven. Moreover, he landed two big body checks that made early season OHL highlight reels. Noel also had a fight at the drop of the puck (which got both players tossed out) with Owen Sound's Daylon Grouxl in a 12-6 blowout loss most remembered for Flyers prospect Maxim Sushko scoring four goals for the Attack.
By the end of October, there was buzz about Noel being a potential top-10 pick in the 2018 Draft. Then came the rest of the season. Noel was practically invisible from the start of November through the Christmas break. That's when he started being panned more than praised: He doesn't shoot enough. He is not very good without the puck. He looks disengaged for entire periods, then have a few shifts where he looks dialed in. He loses battles he ought to win against smaller and less talented players. One or two games where he's a difference maker are followed by five to eight where he's a passenger. His hockey sense is average.
As the season progressed, all the raves about Noel's physical tools -- size, skating, shooting (when he shoots, as Noel only had 105 shots on goal in 62 games played) -- were sometimes overshadowed by complaints about the player lacking passion or competitiveness. Although things stabilized a bit later in the season, the negative reviews started anew when Noel produced only one assist in Oshawa's five-game ouster by the Niagara IceDogs in the first round of the OHL playoffs. Through 14 career playoff games, Noel has produced four points (one goal, three assists).
Perhaps it was unfair. The early build up may have raised the expectations bar too high for a kid who only turned 17 back on Aug. 8, 2017. His overall production (28 goals, 53 points) this season on a nothing-special Generals team (36-29-3) was OK. Of his 28 goals, 23 came at even strength. It would not be a surprise if Noel's numbers took off next year, just as Flyers prospect Isaac Ratcliffe's did in surging to 41 goals in his draft-plus-one year.
I have to be honest, though: Apart from skating -- Ratcliffe isn't deficient for such a big guy, but Noel is a fine skater for a player of any size -- I thought Ratcliffe was a better first-round candidate a year ago than Noel is this year. Ultimately, the Flyers traded three picks (2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds) to move up to the 35th overall spot to snare Ratcliffe. I wrote after the Draft, and hold by the belief, that the Flyers came away from last year's just-OK Draft with three legitimate first-round-caliber talents in Nolan Patrick, Morgan Frost and Ratcliffe. Taking Patrick second overall was a no-brainer but it took some good scouting and maneuvering by the Flyers to subsequently acquire the 27th pick with Frost specifically in mind and then to move up for Ratcliffe in round 2 when he was still on the board.
There are things that Ratcliffe still has to work on even after his big second-half in his draft-plus-one year but he's on track to become a good pro in the long term; a player whom I believe has the capability of someday becoming a 25-to-30 goal scorer. Noel could do the same but, despite his undeniable tools that are equal or better in some ways than Ratcliffe, there hasn't been a progression with him. At least not yet.
In terms of his definition of palatable risk tolerance, Hextall laid out his parameters at his press conference last Thursday.
"You always feel like you can take a little bit more of a risk, but a lot of times 'risk' maybe means bad character or poor work ethic, all the things that we don’t really want. We want the best player, but we also want the best player that can come close to hitting their ceiling," Hextall said.
"In terms of having two picks, I know some organizations look, well you have two first-round picks, you can take a swing on a high upside guy. We’re going to [have to] know more on that high upside guy. If we’re going to take a swing, it’s going to be a pretty good swing. It’s not going to be, 'This guy could be a first-line player, but he’s got a 20 percent chance of being this.' No, we’re not going there."
Does this description match Noel? It all depends on the Flyers' internal scouting reports on him and their read on whether his streakiness this past season was something to be concerned about in projecting his development.
My gut feeling is that the Flyers' internal rankings will have him more in the range of a 2nd-round pick and they'd be less inclined to do something along the lines of the maneuvering they did last year for Ratcliffe; at least not a three-for-one swap of picks. Noel will not fall to 50th overall but if he were in that range or if the Flyers were to trade down in round round and pick up another asset, then I could see Noel as a more realistic target if there isn't a center or defenseman they like better.
3. No urgent need for more size in farm system. At the NHL level right now, the Flyers are a bit undersized, especially on the wings. The team's current top forward prospect below the NHL level, Frost, is slightly built. However, there are plenty of big-framed forwards in the farm system. One more wouldn't hurt, but it's not a dire need.
Ratcliffe is 6-foot-6 and 200-plus pounds. Power winger Wade Allison is 6-foot-2 and a very muscular 210-plus pounds two years after being drafted. Connnor Bunnaman, a center/winger, is 6-foot-3, 215 pounds. Phantoms center Mikhail Vorobyev is 6-foot-2 and in the vicinity of 200 pounds. So is left winger Carsen Twarynski. 2017 draftee Matthew Strome is 6-foot-4, 205 pounds.
Many of those who peg Noel as the Flyers' target at 19th do so based primarily on his size. The declarations that "he's a Flyers type of player" mostly seem to stem from Noel's size and sporadic hints of physical play. Hextall, however, cares more about well-rounded players early in the draft. As a subset of that priority, if there's a well-rounded player with a big frame versus a comparable smaller one, then the size factor would come into consideration. In later rounds, there's more specialization and collection of players with singular traits or those with skill but major flaws (such as smallish players with just-OK speed or big forwards with good hands but severe skating deficiencies).
At his press conference last week, Hextall acknowledged that, a couple years ago, he did specifically home in a bit more on adding some bigger forwards to the mix in the farm system. However, he now seems focused on other areas.
"Last year we needed some size, so we got some. You've got recognize your needs as an organization. It doesn’t mean every player is gonna hit but you try to get a clump of guys like, 'Hey, we need wingers with size.' Okay, so you draft 3 or 4 guys over a couple years,' Hextall said.
The Flyers GM said that a big goal in the next couple drafts is to assemble a new group of defense prospects. He also wants to continue to stockpile centers and, where appropriate, some may alternatively be moved to wing.
Where does Serron Noel fit into these objectives? Unless the Flyers' scouts are more confident than the player's critics that he's got a much better shot of reaching his undeniably high ceiling, he seems more likely to fit the descriptions of the areas where Hextall is NOT looking to go early in the Draft. It could all be pre-Draft subterfuge, but I don't think it is.
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QUICK HITS: JUNE 19, 2018
1) The NHL Awards will air live on NBCSN on Wednesday at 8 p.m. EDT. Flyers center Sean Couturier is a first-time finalist for the Selke Troph. Although he deserves to win, in my opinion, I do not expect him to beat out previous winners Patrice Bergeron or Anze Kopitar. Flyers right winger Wayne Simmonds is a finalist for the Mark Messier NHL Leadership Award. I have no idea who will win that one. The other finalists are Blake Wheeler and Deryk Engelland.
2) Over on the Flyers' official website, I have an article that runs through the five steps to a successful NHL Draft to obtain both quality and quantity: 1) Take inventory of the farm system, 2) Analyze long-term needs, 3) Identify the best available players regardless of position, 4) Seize opportunities as they arise, and 5) Add depth based on the early steps in the process. For more,
click here.
3) On Flyers Radio 24/7, Brian Smith and I preview the NHL Draft in our newest edition of the FlyerBuzz Podcast. You can listen to the show
here.
4) Today in Flyers history: On June 19. 2010, the Flyers acquired the negotiating rights to impending unrestricted free agent defenseman Dan Hamhuis from the Nashville Predators. Offered a choice of a draft pick or young defenseman Ryan Parent, Predators GM David Poile opted for Parent. Originally a Nashville first-round pick, Parent had been traded to the Flyers three years earlier in the Peter Forsberg trade.
Hamhuis, a native of Smithers, BC (home of the Watson brothers and Ron Flockhart), wide widely rumored to have his heart set on signing with the Vancouver Canucks. However, when he and his agent promptly rebuffed a Flyers' contract offer, their cover reason was that he was unsure if he'd play a sufficiently prominent role on a defending Eastern Conference champion team that already had Chris Pronger, Kimmo Timonen, Braydon Coburn and Matt Carle.
On June 25, the Flyers traded Hamhuis' rights to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for a 2011 third-round pick (subsequently traded by the Flyers to Phoenix). Penguins then-coach Dan Bylsma and captain Sidney Crosby personally called Hamhuis to assure him that he'd play a 20-plus minute role on a team that was one season removed from the Stanley Cup (and back-to-back Eastern Conference championship).
Once again, Hamhuis said thanks but no thanks. On July 1, he did what he intended to do all along: he signed a long-term contract with the Canucks.
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CHARITY CLASSIC: WIN A TREK BIKE, FLYERS TICKETS, JERSEY OR MEMORABILIA
Trek Bicycles has signed on as the official bike sponsor of the 2018 Toyota Flyers Charity Classic. The captain of the Ides of Marsh team, Brad Marsh, will be giving away a free brand new Trek FX2 bike to a member of the team via a random drawing. All Ides of Marsh team members are automatically eligible to win. In total, there will be five prizes given away, including Flyers tickets, jerseys and memorabilia.
Here is how it works: Everyone who is currently registered for the Ides of Marsh will be entered into the draw. Likewise, everyone who registers prior to July 6 will also be registered in the draw, and anyone who refers new registrants will receive an additional per-person entry for the prizes with no limit.
Deadline for entries is July 6 at midnight. Another incentive: When registering as an Ides of Marsh member, use promo code IDESOFMARSH and you will receive a $10 discount off of your registration fee. To register,
click here.
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