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Which forwards should teams avoid in free agency? |
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In this edition of the hotstove, we discuss which forwards teams should avoid in free agency.
Todd Cordell
I'll go with Michael Grabner. He is a useful middle-6 forward but I don't think he's as good as his goal totals over the last couple years suggest.
From 2009-16, his average shooting percentage at 5v5 was 9.82%. In two years with the Rangers it jumped to an unsustainably high 16.06%. The spike in shooting percentage, coupled with a plethora of empty net goals, have inflated his numbers and made him look like a much better scorer than he actually is. The New Jersey Devils found that out the hard way down the stretch.
Grabner has posted a negative Relative Corsi For% in four consecutive years, his goal scoring numbers will almost certainly dip, and he's on the wrong side of 30. Buying high on him seems like a bad idea.
Trevor Shackles
Tyler Bozak has had a decent career as a 2nd line centre as he's been someone who can put up somewhere close to 50 points per season. However, at the age of 32, his best years are behind him and I think it'd be wise to not overpay him. His previous cap hit was $4.2M, and I bet he'll be asking for at least $5M on a longer term contract. I can easily see him signing for 5 years and $5.5M, and that is going to become an albatross quite quickly. If a team wanted to pay that for the production of the previous five seasons, then sure that's a fine contract. But they're paying for the next five seasons, and he isn't going to be as good. Buyer beware.
James Tanner
The UFA to avoid is John Tavares. He is going to command one of the biggest contracts in NHL history, but the cost of doing so will be too great. While Tavares can be expected to be a great player for years to come, the Steven Stamkos contract already looks bad and it's just two years old. It just doesn't make sense to pay players max money for the back half of their careers. This is why every franchise quality player that finishes their ELC should be signed by their current team for eight years. If you don't go the full eight years, you have to pay for eight years that include at least four years you know you're getting screwed on. Tavares is a great player, but he's a step below Stamkos, and I don't think its worth it to lock so much of your cap room into a guy who you know is going to start declining halfway through the contract. I'd pay him huge on a three year deal, but if the cost is a seven year 10+ like I expect it to be, than there is no value in signing him.
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