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Musings: The Simmonds Decision, OHL Finals |
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MELTZER'S MUSINGS: THE SIMMONDS DECISION
It is going to be quite interesting to see how things play out over the summer and into next season with Wayne Simmonds' health and contract extension negotiations (assuming he is not traded in the offseason, which is possible, too). Although Flyers general manager Ron Hextall said that he and Simmonds' agent, Eustace King, have yet to discuss the player's future, those discussions will get underway this summer while Simmonds has surgery to repair a midline pelvic tear and then begins the rehab process.
Simmonds is expected to be ready for the start of training camp next season. He has a ridiculously high pain threshold even by hockey standards, and played the entire season -- from camp (when he was taking maintenance days) through the end of the Flyers' playoff run with the pelvic tear. Through the season, various other injuries, some related to the pelvic tear and some unrelated, also piled up.
Viewed in that light, Simmonds' 24 goals (including a team-leading 11 power play tallies) and 46 points weren't all that bad, although they were significantly below the norms he's established and his overall game clearly suffered this season. It could also be argued that, for a team that did not clinch a playoff spot until the final game of the regular season, having even a lesser version of Simmonds in the lineup was preferable to being without him for an extended period of time.
Hextall raised another point at his end-of-season press conference: The type of surgery that Simmonds needed, like most in the core muscle group category, is one that often has a protracted post-rehab period in which the player is still far less than 100 percent in his skating power even after he returns to the lineup. It can take a half-season in some cases (such as with Nolan Patrick this season in comparing his skating in the first half and second halves of the season) and in, other cases, can affect an entire season.
"With the core injury, he came to camp with it. We didn’t know anything about that prior to that. Long as you can plow through the pain, you can play. There’s no perfect way because if you get surgery at that point, you’re weak all year. If you don’t, you’re weak all year. There’s no necessarily right or wrong there. Wayne’s tough. He’s got a high pain-threshold. He played through," Hextall said.
It's a valid point that Simmonds' 2017-18 was going to be severely hampered if he did have the surgery and hampered if he didn't. There are equally valid counterpoints, however.
This past season, Simmonds dealt with heightened risk of other injuries from overcompensation while playing through the pelvic tear. That risk played out in an early season groin pull that nagged Simmonds at least for much of the first half of the season. Ironically, the one injury for which he had to sit out -- torn ligaments in his thumb -- that may indirectly have helped Simmonds feel and skate a little better after his return. He seemed to, at least, although there still clearly were physical issues going on with the player.
The current concern: Simmonds waited until this off-season to undergo the surgery, there is a significant risk of him still being affected by the lengthy period of getting back up to full speed even if he plays all 82 games next season. Conversely, if he'd had the surgery last September, he'd have missed many more games on the front end and quite still possibly have been at less-than-optimal capacity all season on the back end BUT the chances of him returning to his accustomed level from day one next season would have been much higher.
The choice was left to Simmonds himself. He's a warrior who prides himself in being a throwback type of competitor who will play if at possible. There was no way he was going to opt for pre-surgery once he was told the pelvic tear wasn't going to get worse if he waited for the surgery and could tolerate the pain. Since he can deal with quite a lot of pain and keep on going, he took that route and fared just well enough to contribute at least an imperfect facsimile of his game.
At his exit-day interview, Simmonds said he'd do the same thing again if the same situation arose in the future.
"I don’t regret playing through it. I think that’s just in my character. If I’m able to play I can be out there to contribute, I’m gonna do that. I think this was something that I could play through and obviously to get to the end of year. My performance wasn’t the best, but I definitely don’t regret it," Simmonds said.
How much will the surgery this summer affect Simmonds next season, at least in the first half? That's hard to say. Every case and every player is different. The majority seem to struggle for at least several months after their return.
Dallas Stars captain Jamie Benn's case is one of the most interesting examples of the unpredictably of results in playing through a midsection injury and the after-effects of returning from related offseason surgery.
Benn won the Art Ross Trophy in 2014-15 while needing surgery on both hips after the season. In 2015-16, he actually bettered his next-season production (41 goals and 89 points) after winning the Art Ross with 86 points (35 goals, 87 points). Following the 2015-16 season, Benn underwent core muscle surgery in July. The 2016-17 season saw a significant drop in his productivity to 26 goals and 69 points. Healthy this season, he bounced back to 36 goals and 79 points despite playing in Ken Hitchcock's more defensively oriented system than the Stars' previous style under Lindy Ruff.
On the flip side, Claude Giroux's game suffered in 2015-16 while playing through an issue that required offseason hip and groin surgery. The next year was his least effective in the NHL. This season, even as turned 30 in January, he had his career year.
Simmonds will turn 30 on Aug. 26. He expressed confidence that his post-surgery year will not see his effectiveness on the ice compromised at all.
"Yeah, [I'll be] 100% no doubt," Simmonds said.
The reality is that there's no way anyone can predict when his full power will return. What can be predicted with certainty is that Simmonds will do everything that's within his power to control, via diligent rehab and rigorous preparation for camp in September.
As far as his contract goes, Simmonds hinted that he would not be surprised if the situation went unresolved over the summer and went into next year with him trying to return to form before an extension is hammered out. He also made clear that he has no desire to be traded.
"This is where I want to be for the rest of my career, but I do realize at the same time that hockey is a business and whatever happens, happens. If I do end up signing the extension then that’s great, but hopefully I stay here and get to work my way into an extension. I know this year wasn’t ideal for me and they probably didn’t see for me what would require an extension, but this is definitely where I want to be," Simmonds said.
Compared to a summer ago, when he had two full seasons left on his contract and was coming off his second straight 30-plus goal season, Simmonds' trade value this summer is likely lower. Nevertheless, he still would attract trade offers if the Flyers went that route. They'd also have to think very carefully about how his on-ice role and leadership group role (by his own admission, Simmonds is the hard-pushing "bad cop" to Giroux's can-do "good cop") on a team that produced 96-point and 98-point playoff teams in two of the last three seasons despite flaws and the phasing in of a year-to-year gradual process replacing older role players with talented and higher upside but inexperienced young players.
None of these decisions are easy ones, and things could play out various different ways. If were a betting man, however, I'd say the odds favor Simmonds neither being traded nor re-signed this summer and the issue of an extension-versus-trade being revisited next season.
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OHL FINALS START ON THURSDAY
In what promises to be an excellent series to conclude the Ontario Hockey League playoffs and lead into the Memorial Cup, the Western Conference champion Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (featuring Flyers 2017 first-round pick Morgan Frost) will square off against the Eastern Conference champion Hamilton Bulldogs (featuring Flyers 2017 fourth-round selection Matthew Strome). The two clubs were also the league's top teams during the regular season. The Greyhounds had the top record of any club in the three CHL-affiliated leagues, while the Bulldogs have been the more consistent team so far in the playoffs. The series schedule is as follows:
Thu. May 3 - HAM @ SSM
Sat. May 5 - HAM @ SSM
Mon. May 7 - SSM @ HAM
Wed. May 9 - SSM @ HAM
Fri. May 11 - HAM @ SSM
Sun. May 13 - SSM @ HAM
Mon. May 14 - HAM @ SSM
Over on PhiladelphiaFlyers.com, I have authored three previews of the CHL playoff finals. Part one, published on Tuesday, looks at Frost and Strome in the OHL Finals. Part two, published on Wednesday, looks at Carter Hart and the Everett Silvertips in the WHL Finals vs. the Swift Current Broncos. That series gets underway on Friday in Swift Current. Part 3, to be published today, looks at German Rubtsov and the Acadie-Bathurst Titan in the QMJHL Finals against the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada. The series in the Q also starts on Friday.
If you want to watch live streams of any of the league finals, there are full series and individual game packages available for purchase if you click the "media" link of the respective OHL, WHL and QMJHL official websites. A full series package runs $29.95 (US).
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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