The NHL has 31 teams, a salary cap and nearly full parity.
While it's nice to know that your team is really never out of it (unless your team is Arizona or Buffalo) the problem with such parity is that luck ends up playing such a massive role in the standings.
Some people don't believe in luck or coincidence. This is understandable, the more you realize the role randomness plays in events, the less control you realize you have in your own life. Can you even take credit for your accomplishments? Was your hard work worthwhile? It's a slippery slope. Especially if you have the fundamental American belief that hard work will always pay off.
In the end, people just want things to happen for a reason, not just because........so good luck trying to explain how the LA Kings - one of the best teams in the NHL over the last few years by every measurement except wins - missed the playoffs in two out of three years.
The Occam's Razor answer is simple: They got really unlucky. It's a long shot that a very good team would miss the playoffs twice, and it stretches the fabric of what people are willing to attribute to luck, but if you think about it, over time, it's bound to happen.
And this year lends credence to that theory, as several of the NHL's best times are in danger of missing the Playoffs.
The stat that, over time, correlates most strongly with winning is Corsi. Here are the rankings for the following teams (via naturalstattrick,com)
Carolina 2nd
Chicago 3rd
Calgary 4th
Edmonton 5th
Pittsburgh 6th
And all five teams happen to be in the bottom half of the league in 5v5 shooting percentage. And if you look at their rosters, they are all among the best on paper in the NHL. Between them, you've got what, five of the best seven or eight players in the NHL? Each of these teams has been sandbagged by occasionally shaky goaltending, and a low shooting percentage.
But that doesn't mean they are bad teams. The management of each of these teams would be smart to realize that short term results are nearly random and that they've actually built decent teams. Overreacting would be a terrible move. Trust the process.
Of course, some will no doubt use the fact that the second through sixth best Corsi teams are out of the playoffs (well except the Penguins, but that's currently a borderline situation) as "proof" that it's a "dumb stat," but they are welcome to go back through the years and see how often that happens.
Another interesting thing about this is how other teams react. If I'm the Leafs or the Capitals, for instance, and I see that basically five of the NHL's best teams are out of the Playoffs, I'm loading up and hoping for some luck. If I'm the Stars or the Lightning, I am praying things stay as is.
I don't want to go on all day, but if you're interested, dig a bit deeper on one of the stats sites and check out just how crazy unlucky these teams have been.
Washington Capitals Blogger • 
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