I don't think anyone expected the Jets to fall into a 2 goal deficit early in the game but that's exactly what happened in the first period with a lucky bounce around Trouba's skate in front of the net and a then a PP goal from the Flyers. To say it was another slow start for Winnipeg would be an understatement but that's now how the coach saw it.

Paul Maurice felt the game was a slog and that the Jets rose to the occasion after the first period and worked hard to make the comeback happen. He's not wrong but would this space be consistent if a few counter points to Paul Maurice were not presented?

Before I offer up some questions about the game there should be some clearing of the air. I'm not against Paul Maurice or the Jets, I'm pretty content when they win but I also want to look at the long term for the team. It's hard to ignore the work that has been done around predictive data with hockey and how teams are able to have success. There's a lot that goes into making a team successful but fact-based evidence, researched work says teams that push play towards the other net more than their own have a better chance at long term success.

Let's be clear, that success is not guaranteed. Nothing is but it's an indicator that you are doing enough of the right things so that when good luck hits it helps you even more.


So to the first point. The Jets are riding a phenomenal PDO run right now. Hellebuyck combined with their shooting success has the Jets at the top of the league just behind Tampa and New Jersey. Of those three teams does anyone expect the Jets or Devils to sustain that level of good fortune? In fact what about the Lightning? With all their talent and Stamkos and Kucherov having career years so far is that even sustainable?

So let's look at some other indicators before such as CF%- All three teams are on the wrong side of 50% with the Devisl and Jets being 29th and 30th in the league. The Jets are dead last in CF/60 mins and 18th for CA/60. What this tells us is the Jets are okay right now playing middle of the pack level style for shot suppression while sacrificing there shot generation. This is a team with Ehlers, Laine, Scheifele, Little and Wheeler in the top six. There are goals to be had here by increasing shot attempt volume.

Finally let's look at expected goals- xG. In this category which has been shown to be a better predictor of success than Corsi there are some similar signs. Winnipeg and New Jersey are 24th and 23rd worst teams in the league while Tampa is only slightly better at 16th.

So who's at the top? Edmonton, San Jose, Columbus and Montreal when it comes to xG. Why are those teams not at the top of the league like the Jets then would be an obvious question right?

PDO is the answer, not a total one but it explains a lot.

San Jose 98.05 and shooting at 5.67%
Edmonton 98.12 and shooting 5.54%
Columbus 101.02 and shooting 8.1%
Montreal 97.45 and shooting 6.6% and bad goaltending

So Columbus look solid but the others look awfully concerning and that's the difference between them and the Jets- they are doing other things really well but have lousy goaltending, a poor shooting percentage or both.

What's easier to correct? That's the big question and one that's worth watching throughout the season to see what happens and compare to Winnipeg.

The Jets are getting great goaltending and shooting 9.75% with only three teams shooting better. That's nothing to laugh about but like all things goaltending and shooting percentage tend to drift back to sustainable levels. This happened last year and will likely again.

If the Jets want to build on their success so far it would be nice to see them push the pace of play more and work on their structure and tactics to execute more shots and general offence towards the opposition. Don't give up on what's working now, just improve the weak areas. This team has potential.


Game Takes

How nice was it to see Byfuglien play with that mean streak? Once he started to exert his physical presence the game seemed to become a bit more favourable to the Jets. Ask Weal and Raffl about Buff today. Also Buff was seen showing some rare emotion to get his team working more, being vocal on the bench and the ice. More of that please Buff.

Is it a miracle that Perreault was not out for another 10-15 games after the guillotine chop from Gudas? I'm not going to say the Philly player wanted to behead Perreault but he never tried to not behead him so I expect 3-5 games as supplemental discipline.

Speaking of Perreault is he going to move up to a higher line when opportunity and fitness present itself? This team is so much better with him in the lineup and it was seen on the PP with his goal to get the Jets back in the game.

Did anyone else notice that Nik Ehlers missed almost 6 minutes of shifts late in the third period and was only on the ice for 5 seconds in OT? Ehlers did not play from 9:40 mark of the 3rd to the 16:14 mark and did not see the ice well into the OT, 3:51 into it. By that point Myers and Byfuglien had each almost played 2 minutes straight and Scheifele finished off OT with a two minute shift. What did Ehlers do to warrant such little ice time?

Maurice praised Lowry's line in the second period for shutting down the Flyers' big guys, as he said. According to the numbers they did a decent job. Lowry Copp and Tanev seemed to keep Voracek and Giroux in check and especially Gostisbehere. Provorov took them to the woodshed though.

Finally what more is there to say about Connor Hellebuyck and his composure? He's playing in a zone that was only seen by Winnipeggers when a visiting goalie came to town. It's a lot of fun to watch even if it's nerve racking for the kind of saves he has to make.

There lots for the fans to feel good about it. The Jets are winning games that historically speaking they would have lost in past seasons. They are getting a level of goaltending that has never been seen in these parts and they are shooting the puck really well considering the amount of shot attempts they take.

This isn't a bad thing but in the long run it's best that more aspects of a team are performing on the right side of the stats ledger. It will be interesting to see how the team addresses there weaker areas as they move forward.

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