One aspect of the new CBA that went relatively unnoticed for a while was that restricted free agents aren't nearly as restricted as they once were:
Old CBA:
< $400,000 = No Compensation
$400,000 to $550,000 = Third Rounder
$550,000 to $650,000 = Second Rounder
$650,000 to $800,000 = First Rounder
$800,000 to $1 mil = First and Third Rounders
$1 mil to $1.2 mil = First and Second Rounders
$1.2 mil to $1.4 mil = Two First Rounders
$1.4 mil to $1.7 mil = Two First Rounders + Second
Over $1.7 million = Three First Rounders
Each additional million = Additional 1st rounder, up to maximum of five
New CBA:
<$660,000 = No Compensation
$660,000 to $1 mil = Third Rounder
$1 mil to $2 mil = Second Rounder
$2 mil to $3 mil = First and Third Rounder
$3 mil to $4 mil = First, Second and Third Rounder
$4 mil to $5 mil = Two firsts plus Second and Third
Over $5 mil = Four first rounders
(Under both CBAs, All dollar values are increased each year at the same % rate of increase as the Average League Salary - the numbers under the new CBA have increased 17%, thus contracts averaging from $3.515 mil to $4.687 mil like Penner's fall into the 1st + 2nd + 3rd range)
In my opinion, the primary reason why restricted free agents weren't often signed to offer sheets under the old CBA wasn't because of some sort of 'unwritten code' but because compensation was too outlandish.
But all that has changed.
Previously, a $1.8-million player would cost three first rounders in compensation. Now the price has dropped to one second rounder.
And a $4.25-million player like Penner who would have cost five first rounders is now available for the low, low price of one first rounder, one second and one third.
At first glance the Vanek and Penner signings were quite similar but they are really very different. The Vanek signing was one that likely would have happened 5 years ago. Although not a frequent occurrence, teams certainly have tried in the past to steal stars like Fedorov and Sakic for draft picks by making huge, front-loaded offer sheets. Sure four or five first-rounders is a lot but if you have the chance to land a 23-year old player coming off a 43-goal season, it's more than worth the cost.
The Penner situation is a new one that teams will have to deal with moving forward. A young player who is not yet arbitration eligible is very much vulnerable to be signed to an offer sheet if/when he becomes a restricted free agent. This may force changes to the philosophy of "building from within". The thinking of course is that when you draft and develop a group of good young players you can keep their salaries under control for a while, allowing you to spend more on veterans to augment their skill-set. But now these young players have a way to hit the jackpot years before they become UFAs. The key will be getting players to sign long-term deals before they hit the market but it takes two sides to get a deal done and agents will try to use this device to their advantage wherever possible.
It's not the Oilers who have chosen to drive up the price of young players, it's those who wrote up the CBA coming out of the lockout. The NHLPA surely negotiated the lesser compensation for RFAs, knowing that this would be a huge factor in driving up salaries for young players. The compensation is significantly less, making offer sheets a viable option for teams, but the major restriction lies in the right to match.
Brian Burke said last night:
"Offer sheets are a part of the CBA and I have no problem with that. If you can identify a player and pay him appropriately and make him an offer, that’s fine."
But he knows full well why that doesn't work - unless teams vastly overpay for a player on a team that is having cap troubles, the original team will match the offer. If the Oilers had identified Penner and decided to pay him appropriately, the Ducks would have matched without a second thought. Teams absolutely have to overpay to land an RFA and in fact I'd be surprised if this contract wasn't front-loaded as well, creating a further deterrent for the Ducks who won't be able to move Penner for a full year if they decided to match.
In the end of the Ducks do decide to retain Penner, it may be because the Oilers didn't overpay enough. If Scott Hartnell is worth 6-years, $25.2 mil to Philadelphia the Oilers could have gone slightly higher and still been in the same compensation range - say 6 years, $28.1 mil. Sure it sounds crazy but that's the RFA market for you. If you really want to play, be prepared to overpay. And wouldn't you rather have Penner on your team than Hartnell?
Penner is a 24-years old who is 6'4 and scored 29 goals in his rookie season. He's no doubt a late bloomer (Penner wasn't drafted) but the scoring didn't exactly come out of nowhere - the year prior Penner scored 39 goals and 84 points in just 57 games playing in the AHL.
I believe that the Ducks have to match, and worry about the Perry/Getzlaf contracts over the course of the season depending on how things play out on a number of fronts. The draft picks are nice but a first, second and a third aren't enough for a kid like Penner. The draft is far from a sure thing and if you're lucky - very lucky - you can find a Dustin Penner. When you have him, you don't lose him for those three picks.
Look at the 2001 draft, the year Penner was eligible. How many of those guys would you want on your team over him? Kovalchuk and Spezza are locks but the rest of the names in the top 10 were Svitov, Weiss, Chistov, Koivu, Komisarek, Leclaire, Ruutu and Blackburn. Sure there are a couple more names there and you can add in Hemsky (#13) and maybe Tim Gleason (#23) but that's really it from the first round. In the second round you've got Derek Roy (#32), Cammalleri (#49), Pominville (#55) and probably Jay McClement (#57). In all less than 10 players in the top two rounds you'd take over Penner.
If you consider the 2001 draft a weak one (it was), let's go back a year and do the same exercise. After Dipietro, Heatley and Gaborik you've got Klesla, Torres, Hartnell, Jonsson, Alexeev, Krahn, Yakubov and Vorobiev. There were some stronger names later in the first round like Frolov, Volchenkov, Boyes, Justin Williams and Kronwall but very few names that stand out in the second round (Schultz, Bryzgalov, Stoll, Vermette and Paul Martin are the most notable).
My point is that it's a very risky proposition when it comes to drafting 18-year old kids and when you've got a good young player you'd better get more than a 1st + 2nd + 3rd.
If Brian Burke doesn't match it will open things up in future years for more offer sheets to RFAs. Now that compensation isn't a huge issue anymore, the main thing keeping teams from making offers is that it's very very unlikely that they'll actually get the player that they are trying to sign. That's the one flaw with Kevin Lowe's strategy - he's losing friends but not gaining players.
I'd be shocked if Burke lets Penner go to Edmonton.
Danny -
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