Any other team - possibly ever - with the amount of young talent they possess would be the talk of the NHL and there would be excitement, optimism and high expectations.
Unfortunately, with the Oilers, despite having two of the best players in the NHL (Taylor Hall and Connor McDavid) and a whole host of other top-end talent, years of losing have caused a sort of indifference and cynicism that is wholly unrealistic.
The Oilers may not deserve anyone's respect or even belief that they can (finally) get it turned around, but a look at the roster belies the way they are (or seem to be) viewed around the league.
As any half-way intelligent person can tell you, if you flip a coin and get heads ten times in a row, there is no higher chance of flipping tails on the next toss. You aren't "due" for tails because the past has no bearing on the future. If you follow this analogy and apply it to the Oilers, what it means is that years of failure have nothing to the future of this team.
As in, there are real, legitamate reasons this team has faltered, but it's silly to think that a core piece has to be moved just for the sake of change.
Realistically, the idea that Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins or Taylor Hall are psychologically damaged to the point where they 'don't know how to win' or can't win on this team, is ridiculous. If they were so mentally weak, they never would have been able to establish themselves as NHL stars, despite their talent.
This past season, the Oilers may have been a much better team than in years past, but it's impossible to know because they didn't dress their optimal lineup even for one single game last season.
Opinions about injuries as excuse aside, it's an actual fact that the healthiest teams - more often than not - end up being the best teams. This isn't to say the Oilers would have been amazing (their lineup has holes) but certainly full years from Klefbom, McDavid, Yakupov and RNH would have made a huge difference in the standings.
So, if we are trying to look at this team realistically and divorce ourselves from the constant losing and just overall garbage-ness of this team to date, I think there are reasons for optimism.
1. McDavid will actually be better next year. Virtually everyone improves as they get more experience and adjust to the pro level. Considering how good he was as a rookie, it is scary to think what a healthier, more confident, experienced McDavid will look like.
2. With McDavid, RNH and Draisaitl, the Oilers are perfectly set up to capitalize on the growing trend of having three balanced scoring lines instead of the traditional top six/bottom six. In the NHL, it is extremely difficult to get long-term favorable matchups, but if you have three centres of this quality, one of them will always be facing bottom pairing defenseman and weaker-than average forwards.
3. Darnell Nurse figures to be much better than he was last year, and Oscar Klefbom (who many people do not realize is already an established top-pairing player) will be healthy. So their biggest weakness is a virtual guarantee to improve from within.
4. He may not be Corey Schneider, but Cam Talbot is an above average NHL goalie that will look much better in front of an improved defense.
I am not here to convince you that this is the year the Oilers are finally good, but to try to put in perspective that the team they have is not as far away as their 29th place and years of losing make it seem.
Many people are suggesting that they gut their team in order to get some defenseman, or have the idea that, as a group, the collection they have can never win.
I disagree.
I think they're on the verge of having a team that compete next year for the Western Conference title and the Stanley Cup.
Here's how it can happen:
1. Do not mess with the three- first-line centre structure they've managed to assemble. That means that under no circumstances should they trade Nugent-Hopkins and his reasonable cap-hit.
2. Don't punt Nail Yakupov. No one is paying fair value for him, so instead of wasting him, use him in an offensive role and, if necessary, use the teams amazing offensive depth to shelter him so he can be more effective.
3. Realize that their best window for winning is when McDavid is on an ECL, meaning they have this year and next year to basically have an extra free superstar player against the cap.
4. Consider trading the potential of Darnell Nurse to a rebuilding team in exchange for a current superstar. Darnell Nurse to Colorado for Tyson Barrie makes a lot of sense.
A team with Barrie, Sekara, Davidson and Klefbom as it's top four can be very good.
Whether or not they could get Barrie, considering their window, it does make sense that they move an inexperienced defenseman with high potential for someone who could help more now.
5. Use draft picks from this year and next year to acquire another good defenseman who can help immediately and an elite defensive forward like Leo Komarov or Jacob Silfverberg.
6. Make intelligent free agent signings like the Leafs did last year and fill out their lineup with under-valued players who are excellent contributors. An example of this kind of player would be P.A Paranteau, Jiri Tlusty, Brad Boyes, Lee Stepniak, Alex Tanguay etc.
7. Overpay for Keith Yandle. Yandle will be one of the highest-in-demand UFAs on July 1st and if the Oilers were creative, they could offer him a two-year overpayment that would make him a UFA when McDavid needs to be re-signed. Of course, it maybe his last chance at huge money, so Yandle may not be open to such a deal, but perhaps if he was convinced it would potentially get him a Cup, he would be open. If not, they should still pursue him for a long-term deal. Yandle sending the puck up ice to McDavid would be a thing of absolute beauty.
In conclusion, the Oilers are not far off from having one of the league's best teams. I think it's reasonable to think that they can do so without having to trade one of their top-end forwards. However, should it be deemed necessary that they make a blockbuster type of trade, they must trade Eberle and hold on to Hall and Nugent-Hopkins.
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