When evaluating players you need to take into consideration many variables. How is that player being used? What physical skills does that player possess? Are these skills providing positive tangible results with the current usage they are given?
When running a hockey team you need to put players in a position to succeed if you have any sort of realistic expectations of production. Production can be in the form of goals and assists or it can be in the form of driving possession and keeping the puck away from your goal.
In the case of Marcel Goc and the Penguins we have a gross case of player misuse.
People who think Goc is nothing more than a 4th line center are likely to fall into one or both of these categories:
A. Never watched Goc before he wore a Pittsburgh Penguins jersey
B. Do not understand player usage.
Another important variable of analyzing players is to use as much objective data as possible. Contrary to belief not everybody’s eye test is equal. And in most cases the people trumpeting the eye test the most have the worst eyes out there.
ob•jec•tive
adjective: objective
(of a person or their judgment) not influenced by personal feelings or opinions in considering and representing facts.
With that said let’s take a look at some of this objective information.
I spoke about Marcel Goc’s usage above and it hasn’t been advantageous to being a productive NHL player. He consistently plays with two of the worst players in the NHL in Craig Adams and Zach Sill, the defenseman he has spent the most time on the ice with this year has been Rob Scuderi. On top of that he also receives loads of defensive zone starts. Here it is in chart form:
So given this terrible usage you would think that his possession would be worse than the Penguins third line center Brandon Sutter this year.
There isn’t much separating the two. Goc is at 49% and Sutter is at 48%. But when you take into consideration the kind of linemates each has played with this season it doesn’t put Sutter in a great light. There is a huge difference in Craig Adams/Zach Sill/Rob Scuderi and Evgeni Malkin/Beau Bennett/Kris Letang. Remember usage matters and that quality of teammate has more of an impact than quality of competition over larger sample sizes.
I do realize that it is tough for some people to realize Marcel Goc is better than what the common perception is. However, he has a long track record of being a productive player. His career didn't start when he arrived in Pittsburgh.
As we continue to evolve with metrics in ice hockey we continue to find new ways to evaluate talent. One of these new ways is with
Steven Burtch’s Delta Corsi or dCorsi.
It is basically a catch all stat that can be used as a replacement for relative possession stats. Delta Corsi takes many variables into consideration that defines player usage and puts a value on how that player is doing with that usage.
The differential between Expected Corsi (as determined by regression) and Observed Corsi depends on the "usage effects" explained by Expected Corsi - this is what you'd expect out of a perfectly average player in an average season if he was handed the same minutes with the same players against the same opposition. The other half of this coin is what the player in question does with their minutes. How do the shot differentials work out and how far away is it from the expected result?
In a nutshell:
Basically players with extremely high or consistently high dCorsi values are playing above their usage, while players with extremely low or consistently low dCorsi values are in over their head with respect to their usage. In either case, it should probably be adjusted if possible to improve how they are being used.
So how do both of the Penguins third line center options fare in dCorsi over the last seven years?
It appears Marcel Goc outperforms his usage while Brandon Sutter underachieves. There is a stark difference between the two players. One is always outperforming their usage and one is always underperforming.
Now it is no secret that Brandon Sutter has an amazing shot coming down the wing. In fact I marvel at how successful it is. It isn’t easy to snipe on your strong wing from that spot. However, is this a case of Brandon Sutter possessing better tangible offensive production than Marcel Goc? Or is that shot just a niche play that he is sometimes able to execute that looks really nice and gives off a misleading impression?
This is going to come as a surprise to most people out there but:
I call this chart the Adams/Sill effect.
The only year Marcel Goc is markedly below Brandon Sutter offensively at even strength is the year he has been saddled with Craig Adams and Zach Sill, go figure. Once again this all comes back to how a player is being used.
At worst Goc is on equal footing with Brandon Sutter throughout Sutter’s entire career.
Sutter is the more aesthetically pleasing player however, Goc is just as productive. This is where the eye test fails people. You don’t get extra style points for how you generate offense. It all counts the same no matter how it goes in.
Today I’ve provided objective measures in usage, possession, and tangible offense.
Perhaps if the Penguins need to free up some cap space to improve their hockey team for the playoffs they could move a guy that has a higher perceived value than actual value.
If Brandon Sutter is a third line center, Marcel Goc is a third line center. If Marcel Goc is a fourth line center then Brandon Sutter is a severely overpaid fourth line center.
This highlights how people’s biased perceptions of players can be way off the mark and how hockey teams can burn up cap space when they don’t need to. Every bit of cap space matters when you are a team that spends to the ceiling and have Cup aspirations.
Solely relying on one's eye test can lead you to false evaluations. Solely relying on numbers is also not the most optimal strategy, but relying on the numbers will steer you right a hell of a lot more times than it will steer you wrong. Using data is about increasing the probability of being right.
The eye test/intangibles lands you players like Jack Johnson, Brooks Orpik, Craig Adams and has you getting rid of guys like Mikhail Grabovski, Clark MacArthur, and Nikolai Kulemin for nothing (go Leafs!).
Always maximize the value you get for what you are spending.
Always look to improve. Never fall in love with average/below average. Use the data.
Trading away Brandon Sutter isn't as crazy as some people would have you believe. The numbers don't lie.
Thanks for reading!
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