For the Canes to be playing hockey that matters in late March, early April and hopefully later, pretty much the entire team will have to take a step forward from last year, maybe with the exception of the goalie position.

When I grade out categories for the 2013-14 season, it is like this:

In net: I would rate the goalies as pretty good overall and nowhere near the biggest problem. Ward struggled obviously, but for most of the run where Khudobin was the #1 he was very good until he trailed off a little bit at the end. And though he struggled to find his footing initially, Justin Peters rose up to play some very good net and find the team still in it the hunt after a long stint minus both NHL goalies. That is all you can ask of him.

On defense: I think this group was adequate especially when you consider some of the circumstances. Top 4 minute-eater Joni Pitkanen was declared unable to go very close to the start of training camp. Ryan Murphy was pressed into service probably ahead of his time when the combination of veterans in Gleason and Komisarek were some combination of injured and just not very good. Ron Hainsey was jetted in to replace Pitkanen, and Brett Bellemore jumped straight off the AHL/NHL fringe into a top 4 slot. By no means was this group amongst the best in the NHL, but the group was significantly better than 2012-13 and gave the team a chance most nights.

At forward: This is where the team completely missed on pretty much all accounts. The dominant 2012-13 version of Tlusty/EStaal/Semin was nowhere to be found. Because of injuries, down years or whatever, all 3 of these players significantly underperformed. The training camp project of relying on system youth to try to fill the bottom portion of the top 9 went completely awry. Many of the players expected to be in the mix for these spots were not even in the system come October, and Elias Lindholm who was anointed a ready NHLer by Canes GM Jim Rutherford at the draft lived up to it only in glimpses of potential and nothing close to top 9 NHL play consistently over the long 82-game season. I actually thought that Jordan Staal had a much better season despite being light on the score sheet, but then he played much of the year with Gerbe and Dwyer on his wings. Jeff Skinner also had a very good season offensively, though his 2-way maturation still seemed to be slow coming. Ironically, the 2 most pleasant surprises were players who were not even on the radar in July in Manny Malhotra who was a great story and Nathan Gerbe. When you net out the 2013-14 season failure, I think this is where it was completely lost.

So first, to be clear, for the Canes to have any chance of chasing the playoffs, there will need to be a significant rebound by almost every top half of the roster forward. If players like JStaal, EStaal, Semin and Tlusty do not get it done, nothing else will matter. But in the midst of September optimism, let's assume that some combination of better health, a fresh start and a new coach can coax improvement out of this group and also that the goaltending is similar to 2013-14 maybe with a modest uptick from Cam Ward to boot.

If that happens, I think there are 3 slots that will tip the Canes either good or bad on the season.

1-The 2nd top 6 RW slot. One of these goes to Alexander Semin who is noted above as 1 of the players who needs to have a better season. The other slot is pretty much open. The team probably wants Elias Lindholm to mature, take big strides in his 2nd season and seize this slot. His name is right there next to Eric Staal on the training camp roster that the team published. Can he move very quickly from glimpses of the future to being a top 6 NHL forward game in and game out right now? If not, there really are not many other options other than starting to move LW to the right side and trying random stuff that is more of a gambling expedition than anything else.

2-The 2nd top 6 LW slot. I think Jiri Tlusty is underrated. He is as a pretty good all-around hockey player. He is not a pure blue chip 1st line LW, but he is just decent across the board such that you can play him on any kind of line with any kind of line mates and he will be okay. Last year, the Canes oscillated between Nathan Gerbe next to JStaal and Skinner mostly next to EStaal for stretches to fill the other top 6 LW slot. I like Nathan Gerbe and think that he can be part of a good NHL team. His consistency and all-the-time drive combined with decent offensive ability make him a solid depth NHL player. I think that is the key. At the point where the Canes can push players like him down to the 3rd line because there are too many better players for the top 6, the team finally has something. For 2014-15, just like all recent years, the ideal outcome is for Jeff Skinner to mature and finally become a top 6 forward not just a top 6 scorer. 2 years ago the team tried this JStaal. It just did not work. It was like mixing oil and water and though the scoring totals were okay, the line was just bad when it came to winning, i.e. scoring more than you give up. Last year, Jeff Skinner had a very good year offensively and stayed out of the way of big hits for the most part logging a good number of games. But I just did not see enough development past being a 1-dimensional offensive player. Now going into his 5th year with significant experience and with a new coach, can he mature into more of a 2-way player who is just as or nearly as dangerous offensively but not as much of a defensive liability? If so, can he find chemistry with Eric Staal to provide the fuel for an offense overdrive 1st line to complement a good 2-way 2nd line that also scores? If not, I think there is a possibility that Gerbe could fill this slot but on the 2nd line paired with Semin and JStaal. It sounds funny to say it, but he actually more of a nose for the front of the net than just about anyone on the team. That combined with Semin's playmaking led to a HUGE goal-scoring year for Tlusty in 2012-13. The line would be pretty good defensively and capable of playing against the other team's best and if they kept it simple with JStaal and Gerbe going to where goals happen and Semin striking a good mix between shooting when it is available and playmaking otherwise, it just might work. Until I see evidence otherwise, I continue to think that the best thing for Skinner is a heavy helping of 1st unit power play minutes and opportunistic/sheltered ice time otherwise that sees him on an offense-focused 3rd line that hides a bit from the other teams' best and preys on lesser defenders. Regardless of whom, someone needs to step into this role and perform like a true top 6 NHL forward, not a top 6 only because the team is not up to par.

3-#4 defenseman. I am on record as wishing that the Canes would have added 1 more pure top 4 defenseman via free agency or trade. GM Ron Francis probably just had nothing for budget, so I am not sure you can really fault him. But it leaves the team in a bit of a bind. Though it would have been nice to have the luxury of dialing Justin Faulk back just a little bit when he struggled at times in the 2nd half of the year, the duo of Sekera and Faulk largely did their job in the top pairing. And Ron Hainsey though not flashy or spectacular proved to be just the minute-eater that the Canes needed replace Pitkanen. After that it got a bit tough. After a slow start in training camp and a concussion coming out of it, Tim Gleason never came anywhere close to reaching top 4 status nor did restart project Mike Komisarek. When you consider the leap that Brett Bellemore made from very little NHL experience in any role to playing as a top 4, you cannot fault what he did last year. He was phenomenal in terms of the jump he made. But when you net it out, the combination of Hainsey and Bellemore just could not bring enough in terms of puck movement, flow, transition offense and sometimes just getting the puck up the ice and on a forward's stick. I like Bellemore as a 3rd pairing defenseman and a fill in for the top 4, but unless he takes another leap forward in an area that is not his strength (moving the puck), I just do not think he is an every game top 4 defenseman on a good team. And I think the same is true of Jay Harrison. Both remind me of the old Niclas Wallin barometer. Both are pretty good depth defensemen, but the minute they become the best you have for #4, not just as an injury fill in but permanently, I just think that says a lot about the talent level of your blue line. Think about it. Bellemore went on the open market and no one even seemed to nibble at offering him decent 3rd pairing $ at 2 years of $2.5-3M apparently. Are 29 other teams' front offices and scouts really all that far off? Or is he maybe just more like a ho-hum #5/#6 replacement level defenseman on most other teams?
So with only the return of Tim Gleason on the blue line, who then can fill that #4 slot. There are 2 wild cards. Ryan Murphy made huge strides jumping straight from juniors to the NHL and looking okay doing it. His skating and carrying the puck translated pretty well and he looked better than I would have expected defensively. Also, his skill set actually fits pretty well with Ron Hainsey. As a right shot, more offense-oriented puck-mover, he could match well with Hainsey who is a bit more Wesley-ish and might help clean up some messes. And he would definitely bring more of the puck moving and transition that you need in your top 4 to play some offense off the rush. But to me this feels very much like the Jamie McBain situation from years back when he had a good finish to a short NHL stint and then was catapulted into a top 4 slot the next year. It ended badly. Finally, the other wild card is John-Michael Liles. He has to play on his off side to be the right side of Ron Hainsey, but his skill set also fits the job description. His 2013-14 was strange for me. He was better than I expected at positional defense and just defense in general which I thought would be the harder transition for him, but then he never really brought much to the struggling power play which was the 1 thing I thought would be an easy gain. If I had to bet, I think that Liles will ultimately win the spot next to Hainsey but that Murphy will stick again and see some shifts escalated especially if the Canes are down and need offense late.

What say you Canes fans? Who fills these 3 key slots? Will the top horses rebound enough to make it even matter?

Pucks, players and ice tomorrow at PNC Arena in a little more than 9 hours!

Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63

Go Canes!

Join the Discussion: » 6 Comments » Post New Comment

» Maple Leafs and Hurricanes: Comparison in rebuilding strategies

» Snarly Hurricanes vs. Flyers match up set for Saturday

» Canes treading water - Will they eventually drown or swim?

» Solid first half of week tees 'make up' time at home for the weekend

» Hurricanes at Red Wings -- Canes look claw even for road trip