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HERE
The dust has settled on a fascinating two weeks or so in regards to the NHL but that does not mean fans are going to wiping their brows from excitement. It’s mid, no late August and players are finding some later summer deals and new homes, such as former Jet Devon Setoguchi now in Calgary. However that’s not the news that really has fans, online and around the water cooler, talking. It’s moves like the Oilers and Leafs made to take away basically untrained, at least in terms of ‘old boys’ hockey mentality, people and give them jobs. The hiring of Dellow, Metcalf, Pettapiece and Charron are all part of the controversial ‘summer of data’ that the NHL has undergone.
Here’s a thought that I haven’t seen brought up yet. Two of the most dysfunctional and misdirected organizations since the first lockout ended have made moves to improve their teams by better understanding them via data. Either it’s a continuation of the same dysfunction and misguided management and tactics or the moves are going to help eliminate baffling, ineffective decisions leading to mediocre if not awful results.
What is intriguing about the scenario between the Leafs and the Oilers is they are linked in an rather random way, that being the history of Oilers head coach Dallas Eakins. He cut his teeth in the Leafs system, plying his trade and earning a reputation as a progressive thinker. Some would say Eakins was part of the dawn of the new age of hockey. So what happened next is during Eakins’ first year he decided he needed to consult with, and then ultimately hire, one of the biggest critics in Tyler Dellow.
The Leafs brought in Brendan Shanahan who immediately made changes in the layers of management bureaucracy. He hired a bright, young hockey-thinking star in Dubas while adding the developer of the website ExtraSkater.com (now defunct), Pettapiece from the NHL and Cam Charron. Charron like Dellow had written some pieces that were scathing indictments of Leafs head coach Randy Carlyle and GM Dave Nonis. These pieces were not personal attacks, they were arguments, sound and well presented, that challenged the actions of the two key Leafs employees.
The Leafs and the Oilers may have the two most active online communities in the NHL, even more so when it comes to smart people producing data about the teams, and openly discussing the findings. There is nothing secret; these writers/researchers were far from hiding in an ivory tower looking down on the minions. All they asked was for evidence to back up any claim refuting their findings.
So the question becomes this: which team made the better move? It would appear, based on what little information exists, that Edmonton has Dellow and ???. In Toronto the moves appear to be around creating a department for analytics which may take on a whole-istic (pun intended) approach from the salary cap to reports to analysis. A simple assumption would be that there is more to Edmonton than a relationship based on respect between Dellow and Eakins but that is unknown. However, I say it’s safe to assume that Edmonton did not hire Dellow and his data as they had previously announced a position in the organization for analytics and filled it. But did they get what they wanted?
Herein lies the biggest conundrum of analytics- knowing what questions to ask and what data answers those questions? That’s where Dellow and Charron excel, they are curious, and in my opinion, they understand what is of value and what is not.
Like all things in sports organizations and team eventually have to play the games and see the results. So which team has the better chance of improving, the Oilers with a progressive, open-minded coach or the Leafs with their old-school thinking one?
The one aspect of analytics that all proponents will say as true: they do not change results over night; they are a part of a longer process to making better decisions. Over time they should help improve results. In this case, based on the limited information available, the Leafs appear to have assembled a more comprehensive unit to engage in this process. The Oilers have some one in Eakins who is already well-versed and a new asset in Dellow who has pushed the envelope of using data to compliment the available video. Is there a preferred approach, probably not? Because so little is know about a start process with any NHL team in regards to analytics and changes made from the data there is no point to use as mark for comparison. Until now…
These moves are the test point for all reasonable purposes and fans and data-friendly observers get to see what evolves through this process. Both teams have made the post season just once since the first lockout of 2004-05 and both teams have been mired in coaching and management changes. If only they had relatively similar draft positions in recent years. If you’re a betting type of person now is the time to lay your wager down. Who turns it around first and makes a run past the first round of the playoffs?
Team Oil
Or
Team Leaf
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