This summer saw the Arizona Coyotes move on from two of their top scorers last season without technically getting anything in return for them, and yet, somehow, they might be a better team for it.
Last season Mike Ribeiro was tied for 3rd in team scoring with 47 points, only 6 behind team leader Keith Yandle. Vrbata was 2 points behind Yandle and lead all forwards with 51 points, 20 of which were goals.
By far the most frequent question I get about the Coyotes is how are they supposed to score any goals this year when they lost 2 of their most offensive players and a third, Shane Doan, is 38 years old.
My answer here, as you can see by the cliche in the title, is that it`s a matter of addition by subtraction. In my opinion, the Coyotes are actually better now after losing those two players.
Yes, they lost two guys who scored about 50 points each and were among their most productive forwards. However, that looks way worse in print than it does in reality. The thing is, 50 points from your leading forwards is a joke. If those guys had 80 points, or even 65, I am probably not writing this article. (And they are still on the roster). Outside of Buffalo, Detroit and Florida, no team`s leading forward had less points that the Coyotes last season. 51 points is a decent total for a player, but if you consider the ice time those players had, and the situations in which they played (powerplay, offensive zone starts) then their point totals are rather pedestrian.
In fact, it is likely - not for sure, but likely - that any average replacement players you insert into your lineup to replace those players, if given the same ice time, will put up at least 50 points.
Basically, the replacement level of a second line forward given first line minutes and powerplay time should be at least 45-50 points. The Coyotes are gambling that a full year of Erat and the addition of Sam Gagner and Max Domi will replace the points lost in Ribeiro and Vrbata. I think this is a pretty sensible bet, but the moves have other implications as well.
With two forwards moved out from the top six, the Coyotes will now be able to give roster positions to Max Domi (100% he makes the team) and Henrick Samuelson (good chance he makes it). As well as give more and better ice time to Hanzal and Boedker.
With Ribeiro gone, it is my expectation that the Coyotes give Hanzal this opportunity to see if he has one more level to his game. I know fans are always frustrated with the injuries and unreached potential, but Hanzal is such a big player, and talent at his size so rare, that they have to give him every opportunity to succeed.
What we have seen from Hanzal so far is an almost scary consistency to hit 40 points, however, last year he did it in just 65 games, which, for him is his best year. There seems to be another level in his game and maybe, as he seems to be the de facto #1 centre entering the season, he will be able to hit it this year.
As with Hanzal, we can also expect Boedker to reach another level with the exit of Vrbata. Boedker had a career high 51 points and remains, by far, the most talented forward on the Coyotes. He should get every chance to be a top line player this year. He was 12th on the Coyotes in ice time last year and should get a massive increase this season.
So while the losses of Ribeiro and Vrbata seem detrimental to people maybe not that familiar with the organization, in reality, these moves actually improve the Coyotes who stand to be a better team this year than the one that only missed the playoffs by two points.
Domi and Gagner, are probably equal in production to what the two former Coyotes provided, should they get the ice time everyone expects them to. No matter how bad Gagner`s defense supposedly is, the guy is an intense player and unlike Ribeiro, you always know he`s in the game. His defense cannot possibly be as bad as Rieiro`s and if he contributes anything during 5v5 play, he`s an upgrade. As for Domi, it`s hard to predict a rookie, but if he plays all 82 games, I don`t think 20 goals and 50 points will be a problem for him. I fully expect him to win the Calder and be a star in the NHL.
As a bonus, you get increased production from Boedker and Hanzal, and don`t forget, that Erat wasn`t here for more than a month last season either, so there is no reason to think the Coyotes offense won`t actually be better than it was last season.
On top of everything else, I also won`t be having to spell Ribeiro or Vrbata so often anymore, which will be very nice.
fin
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