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Key Notes on Canada

February 12, 2014, 10:06 AM ET [1203 Comments]
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1) Mike Babcock has elected to go with Carey Price against Norway, and with Roberto Luongo against Austria. As we all know, this is hardly significant. What matters most is who starts game three against Finland, and how they fare come Sunday.

Going into this season, you couldn't name two players from the National Hockey League with more to prove--both to their respective markets and to Canada. You couldn't find two players under more pressure. Price has certainly delivered for the Canadiens-- in stellar fashion. Luongo was doing much of the same until the Canucks stopped scoring all together, crashing into the Olympic break with seven straight regulation losses.

Here we are, on the eve of game one for the Canadian men's team, and one of these two will have the greatest opportunity their career has presented to prove the doubters wrong.

Granted, Luongo's got a gold medal from Vancouver, and he had a chance to win a Stanley Cup, but somehow, his play in the 2010 Olympics still had people wondering if he'd be capable of repeating in Sochi, and he still bares the brunt of the blame for Vancouver's loss to Boston in seven games, despite his team only managing eight measly goals in the Stanley Cup Finals.

As for Price, all we've heard about for the last couple of years is how he's failed in the playoffs, and about how his greatest successes came before his NHL career.

Mike Babcock has been incredibly elusive, carrying an air of being offended by questions regarding his goaltending decisions. You can almost sense that Babcock is well aware of the pressure these two frontrunners are under, and that he--like the rest of Canada--is praying one will emerge to shine brighter than any other goaltender in the Olympic tournament.

This is a delicious storyline we'll devour for the next two weeks of competition.

2) Lines for Canada have had the following constitution:

Kunitz-Crosby-Carter
Marleau-Getzlaf-Perry
Sharp-Toews-Nash
Benn-Tavares-Bergeron

Keith-Weber
Vlasic-Doughty
Bouwmeester-Pietrangelo
Hamhuis-Subban

Today, at practice, it was reported that Matt Duchene, Martin St. Louis, P.K. Subban and Mike Smith were the last players on the ice. One of those forwards will dress, but one has to wonder if that relegates Subban to starting the tournament as a healthy scratch.

3) Going over those lines, a couple of things stand out to me.

a) If Babcock insists on having Tavares play down the middle, I can't fathom Patrice Bergeron holding down a spot at wing over Duchene and St. Louis.

When the games start to really matter, after a preliminary round that shouldn't challenge Canada too much, I have a hard time believing Bergeron won't dress. If for whatever reason, one of the team's centres get hurt, or there's a chance of that happening in-game, he's a crucial replacement.

Bergeron is also Canada's best defensive forward. He's going to be a penalty kill specialist. He's going to take big faceoffs. He's going to shadow some excellent players when Toews and Nash are busy with other top flight players.

b) I have zero (absolutely zero) concern about Tavares playing the wing. I think he'd excel at the position. I'd expect that's where he's going to end up, and I imagine him being a better fit on a line with Getzlaf and Perry than Marleau will be.

c) Babcock wasn't kidding when he said that if Carter thinks of passing to Crosby instead of shooting, then he won't play with him. And if you think about it, that puts a great deal of pressure on Carter. If Carter can't be the guy next to Sid, you wonder if Carter will hold down his position in the lineup.

Some people sneered at Carter's selection. I don't know why. All this guy does is score goals, and score huge goals, and score game-winning goals. If he delivers on what Canada picked him for (his speed and his shot), he's going to end up being one of their most important players. If he can't deliver, St. Louis or Duchene will take his spot.

4) Canada's obviously put a premium on skill and speed. That doesn't change the fact that they are going to play their aggressive forechecking style, hoping to pressure defensemen with relentless physicality.

If you go back and watch some games from 2010 on the small rink, you can't deny what a difference Brenden Morrow and Mike Richards made for Team Canada. They were vicious on the bodies of their opponents.

There's naturally less emphasis on that on the big ice. The space behind the net is much bigger, the space between the blue line and the net is significantly less, and the width of the rink makes it harder to catch players with devastating hits.

Still, you have to wonder if Jamie Benn can take on the role that Richards played so well for Canada in 2010. There's no doubt, he'll be asked to be that kind of player. Marleau doesn't have that in his game, really. Neither does Kunitz. Neither does Tavares. Nash can do it, but it's not his forte. Benn becomes more important...

5) If I had to pick three players I don't know what to expect from, I'd go with Sharp, Vlasic and Pietrangelo.

Sharp has plenty of international experience, but playing at the World Championships doesn't even remotely compare to the type of pressure the Olympic Tournament presents. He's an elite goal scorer, but he's a streaky one too.

Sharp has three goals in his last 16 games, which means he scored 25 in his first 44. Can't help but wonder if nerves ahead of his first Olympic experience got to him in Chicago. Not to say that's for sure the case, but if it is the case, he's going to have to make a statement early on to secure his spot on that line.

Vlasic and Pietrangelo have never been through the ringer. Not on this stage. Not in the playoffs either. Both have experience, but neither has seen the type of ice-time under this kind of pressure they're expected to see. You have to expect at least one of them will emerge to be excellent. Canada's hoping it's both. You have to wonder if one of them won't open the door up for Subban or Hamhuis.

6) I think there are two players up front that are going to be the biggest offensive catalysts for Canada, and it's hard to pick and choose from a team deep with the greatest scorers on the planet. They are: Crosby and Getzlaf.

7) No one knows for sure, but I feel the Team Canada coaching staff wants to secure their faith in Price. I think they believe he gives them the best chance to win Gold. He's got to be outstanding tomorrow against a Norwegian opponent that shouldn't offer much of a challenge. He's going to have to be even better against Finland on Sunday--and I really believe he's penciled in to start that game.

Let's face it, Babcock is likely to see two really good games from Price and Luongo. The decision isn't likely to be clearer after those two. So, which goalie truly needs to be tested more? It has to be Price, because Price has been better than Luongo this year, and if Price can handle the pressure of being the starter (and we'll know this after the Finland game), then Babcock will have a clear answer. If Price falters against Finland, well, Babcock will probably go with what's been tested before (Luongo).

Some people may not believe it, but I think Canada's coaching staff really believes that either one of their top two goalies can get them a Gold Medal. They may even believe that Mike Smith can emerge to do it if both Luongo and Price fail or get injured.

8) I believe there's only three teams that can win Gold in Sochi. They are Canada, USA, Sweden.

I mean no disrespect to the Russians, who are certainly medal contenders. Beyond their top six forwards, their offensive depth is questionable, and their defense doesn't hold a candle to any of the three teams above. As for their goaltending, they have two guys in Varlamov and Bobrovsky that can certainly do the job, but neither of them have ever come close to knowing this kind of pressure. You could say the same of Carey Price or Tuukka Rask, but Varlamov and Bobrovsky haven't played in the kind of hockey markets Price and Rask have been in since the beginning of their careers. Bobrovsky got a sense of it in Philly, but he was never officially the starter there for any significant period of time.

Datsyuk, Malkin, Ovechkin, Kovalchuk--they can all singlehandedly take over a game. You may even throw Radulov into that mix, and Semin to a lesser degree. But this is a tournament that requires major scoring depth. You can beat a lot of teams with just those names, but you can't beat every team with just them.

Russia will have to play firewagon hockey to win this tournament, and I don't have any belief that's the kind of hockey that will prevail for a Gold Medal.

9) There are some major question marks on Team Sweden. With Henrik Sedin out, and Daniel Sedin ice cold coming into the Games, one has to wonder what this will mean for Sweden's Gold aspirations. Loui Eriksson, twice concussed, and hardly lighting the score sheet on fire this year also figures to play prominent offensive and defensive roles.

Yes, Daniel Sedin is slated to play with Nick Backstrom, which is hardly a major step down from brother Henrik, though it'd be ridiculous to suggest the chemistry would be the same. Even if it's not, these two players could make some magic happen.

Here's what really scary about Sweden: The Swedish Torpedo style is well-engrained. These players aren't coming in with questions about what kind of hockey they're going to play. They attack as a unit of five, and most of their play is generated from the speed of their blueliners. They've all played together for years at various levels of international competition. There is lots of familiarity there (you could say the same of many of the teams at this tournament), and there is lots of skill on this team. And though Henrik Lundqvist has been far from his extraordinary self this season, he's been much better of late, and is a huge x-factor for this tournament.

10) When all is said and done, I believe Canada will win their group, and I believe the USA will win theirs. That means Canada is likely to have to go through Russia in the semifinals to get to the Gold Medal Game, and the USA is likely to have to go through Sweden.

I don't believe the Russians can beat Canada.

As for USA-Sweden, well, that would be one for the ages, but I believe the USA has a better team.

I'll say we're headed for a Canada-USA final once again, which would be quite something on the big ice (and no, Salt Lake wasn't quite Olympic-sized ice).

More to come, as I'll be covering Team Canada for Hockeybuzz throughout.
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