With Columbus changing conferences and finally realizing their long-awaited wish to play in the East, the Jackets will now share a division with a whole new crop of teams. Playing in the Central with clubs like Detroit, St. Louis, Chicago and Nashville certainly hasn’t been a picnic for the Jackets but joining the new Metropolitan Division isn’t going to represent much of a reprieve in terms of the quality of their opposition. Four of Columbus’ new division mates qualified for the playoffs this season while Philadelphia and Carolina both boast a lot of talent and reasonable expectations to challenge for a postseason spot next year.

Making the playoffs isn’t going to be easy for the Jackets but that’s still the goal for the team that nearly defied the experts this past year by making a late charge for a postseason position. In order to realistically gauge the Jackets odds of qualifying for the Stanley Cup tournament next spring, let’s take a look at each of their new division rivals in a series of posts.

Today it’s the Metropolitan club who has faced the most adversity this summer: The New Jersey Devils.

2013 Review:

Fresh off a berth in the Stanley Cup Finals in 2012 the Devils were expected to follow up with another solid showing in 2013 despite the loss of Zach Parise. With one of the game’s most dynamic players in Ilya Kovalchuk, a future Hall of Famer between the pipes in Marty Brodeur plus New Jersey’s past penchant for overcoming player personnel defections the Devils still had enough to compete in the East; or so it was thought at least.

Things didn’t work out as planned however as the Devils stumbled to a last place finish in the old Atlantic Division with 48 points. Poor puck luck may have played a role in New Jersey’s underwhelming season as just three regulars who saw action in at least 30 contests last year recorded PDO’s of 1000 or better. PDO is a team’s on-ice shooting % plus his on-ice save percentage when a specific player is on the ice. If a player posts a figure less than 1000 that could indicate his team recorded an unsustainably low team shooting or save percentage. This number tends to regress to the mean (1000) across seasons so similar on-ice performances from key Devil players in 2013-2014 should come with better results.

In With the New:

LW Ryane Clowe – Five years, $24.25MM
RW Michael Ryder – Two years, $7MM
RW Jaromir Jagr – One year, $4MM
G Cory Schneider – Trade w/ Vancouver

The Devils used free agency to address several holes adding Clowe and Ryder on the first day of the signing period. Clowe was costly and suffered through a concussion-filled season in which he potted just three goals. He’s a solid player who plays the physical game and the advanced stats say a return to 20-goal territory is a good possibility. I wouldn’t want the last half of this contract but Clowe should be a good player for a more couple of seasons at least.

Ryder tallied a career-high 35 goals for Dallas in 2011 – 2012 and his pace of a year ago (16 goals in 46 games) would have prorated to about 29 goals over a full schedule. He can put the biscuit in the basket but has been plagued by inconsistency throughout his career. The investment was minimal however, and should pay off for the Devils.

Jagr signed with New Jersey after it was learned that Kovalchuk was retiring from the NHL to return to Russia. Jagr, 41, is nowhere near the player he was in his prime but is still capable of producing offensively and should help a PP that finished in the bottom third in the NHL. At worst, if the Devils fall out of playoff contention, dealing Jagr at the deadline would still likely yield some positive value for the Devils.

Schneider was a surprise draft day addition by Lou Lamoriello. The Devils certainly needed to decide what to do post-Brodeur but nonetheless acquiring the talented young Schneider from Vancouver was not on many radars prior to the deal being announced. The price wasn’t cheap (the 9th overall pick in the 2013 draft) but it should prove worth it if Schneider proves to be the long term answer in net.

Out With the Old:

LW Ilya Kovalchuk – Retired
LW Alexei Ponikarovsky (UFA) – Signed in KHL
RW David Clarkson (UFA) – Signed by Toronto
D Henrik Tallinder (Trade) – to Buffalo

No team took a harder offseason hit than New Jersey did when Kovalchuk elected to forego the remaining 12 seasons on his $100MM contract to return home to Russia. Kovalchuk didn’t have his best season in 2012 – 2013 (31 points in 37 games) but is still one of the top players in the world and capable of carrying a club’s offense for long stretches. The Devils will miss his game-breaking ability. Not only does the loss hurt but the timing, coming on July 11th, precluded the Devils from pursuing other options in free agency, including the following player.

Clarkson’s defection to Toronto also stings; particularly because the Devils would have made more of an effort to retain his services. A late bloomer, Clarkson finished third on the club in scoring a season after recording his first 30-goal campaign. His 15 markers this past season led the team and would have equaled out to about 26 tallies in a full campaign. Clarkson also excelled in the physical aspect of the game making the signing of Clowe all the more important.

Ponikarovsky was re-acquired early in 2013 from Winnipeg primarily because of his solid stint with the Devils in 2011 – 2012. He tallied 18 points in 33 regular season contests and followed that up with 9 more in 24 postseason matches as the Devils made it to the Cup Finals. This past season he struggled, only potting two goals and seven points in 30 games with the Devils. The Devils likely won’t miss the veteran winger much.

Tallinder had fallen out of favor with New Jersey three years after signing as a free agent from Buffalo. He saw a career-low 17:34 of ice time per contest last year, finishing seventh on the club among defensemen who appeared in at least 23 games. Other defenders had passed him on the depth chart and his $3.375MM cap hit was far too much for a third-pair blue liner. The Devils were able to ship him back to Buffalo last month for a prospect, saving the team some money.

Forwards:

There was no single player on the market capable of filling the void created when Kovalchuk retired but the Devils did grab several free agents to improve their scoring depth. Jagr, Ryder and Clowe all should challenge the 20-goal mark in full seasons for New Jersey and should also boost the league’s 21st ranked man advantage attack.
Travis Zajac netted just 20 points while appearing in all 48 contests. He signed a huge contract extension soon after the new CBA was officially agreed to and will need to bounce back as the team’s number one center to justify that hefty investment.

Adam Henrique suffered through a dreaded “sophomore slump” season, tallying 11 goals and 16 points a year after netting 51 points as a rookie and being named to the NHL’s All-Rookie squad. He’s in the middle of a contentious RFA negotiation with the club but will undoubtedly be re-signed. He’s a key player and will be leaned on heavily.
Patrik Elias re-signed this summer as an unrestricted free agent to a three-year contract and is set to finish his career with the only club he has ever known. He led the Devils in scoring a year ago with 36 points and should be capable of steady contributions for a couple more seasons.

Steve Bernier, Stephen Gionta and Ryan Carter form a very effective energy line. The trio combined for 18 goals and 44 points while playing primarily 4th line minutes.

Dainus Zubrus returns after an injury-plagued campaign that saw the veteran forward post just nine points in 22 games. The Devils need him to produce as he did in 2011 – 2012 when he netted 17 goals and 44 points while playing all 82 games.

Andrei Loktionov was brought over from Los Angeles and showed promise scoring eight times in 28 games with the Devils. He could settle into a scoring role this season.

Defense:

Long gone are the days when the Devils could roll out the likes of Scott Stevens, Scott Niedermayer and Ken Daneyko. Today Andy Greene holds the mantle as New Jersey’s top defender. He led the club in +/- rating and finished second behind Kovalchuk in average ice time. Greene is a solid defender but far from the ideal anchor on the blue line.

Marek Zidlicky returns to Newark to reprise his role as the team’s top offensive threat on the back line. He finished with 19 points, 11 of which came on the power play. The veteran’s -12 +/- rating tied for the worst on the team suggesting Zidlicky would be best seeing fewer minutes and more protected ice time.

Salvador, the team captain, also struggled in his own zone tying Zidlicky in +/-. The advanced stats suggest this was no fluke as Salvador had a Relative Corsi rating of -14.7. That means the Devils allowed that many more shots directed at their net than they took while Salvador was on the ice versus when he was off per 60 minutes of ice time. Of the 173 blue liners who appeared in at least 30 games this past season, Salvador’s Relative Corsi ranked 166th.

Mark Fayne enjoyed success as Greene’s partner, seeing 42.2% of his ice time with the Devils top defender. Fayne was 2nd on the team in +/- while averaging more than 18:00 of ice time.

The Devils need Adam Larsson to fulfill his vast potential. He was considered by some to be the best player in his draft year and the Devils were fortunate to nab him fourth overall in 2011. His puck possession stats were almost as abysmal as Salvador’s with Larsson posting a Relative Corsi Rating of -13.2. He is too talented to perform that poorly again.

Another youngster who helped make Tallinder expendable is Alexander Urbom. He’s a big kid (6’4”, 215) who moves well and has a good shot. He’s skated in 122 AHL games scoring 35 points and appears poised to take a regular turn on the Devils blue line in 2013 – 2014.

Goaltending:

Marty Brodeur will forever be known as one of the NHL’s greatest goaltenders. He is no longer the best in today’s NHL and may not even be in the top-10 but he is still capable of playing at a high level for stretches of time. Brodeur, at worst, is still a capable NHL net minder.

Cory Schneider gives the Devils the promise of elite goaltending. After months of trying to work out a trade to send Roberto Luongo out of Vancouver the Canucks backtracked and instead dealt their supposed goaltender of the present and future to New Jersey. He instantly upgrades the position for the Devils but it will be interesting to see how DeBoer uses his two backstops this season knowing that ultimately he will have to transition the position away from the face of the franchise and to Schneider.

Overview:

If any team can not only survive but thrive even after losing their best player it may well be the Devils. It’s hard to keep track of all of the stars that have come and gone in New Jersey over the last 15 years or so yet the Devils have found ways to stay in contention almost every season anyway. It’s hard to pick against the Devils but this time I think I have to.

The Devils are painfully slow up front with Jagr, Clowe and Ryder replacing the quicker Clarkson and particularly Kovalchuk. Two of their better players, Henrique and Zajac, should rebound but even then the Devils will have to score goals by committee and could struggle to put the puck in the net consistently without Kovalchuk and Clarkson.

Their defense is below average with the possibility of being mediocre if Larsson and Urbom perform up to their potential.

Goaltending is a strength on paper but it may not be easy dealing satisfying the egos of two goalies who each feel they should be starters in this league. For the first time in a long while the Devils could find themselves on the outside looking in on the playoffs for consecutive seasons.

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