I'm not a believer in picking "winners and losers" at the draft. I also don't think there's much more to add to the discussion about Russian players dropping off the cliff from their rankings, the Rangers selection of Alexei Cherepanov and the Penguins selection of Angelo Esposito. Instead, I will offer some other first-blush observations:
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My early impression is even beyond their first picks in the draft, Phoenix and St. Louis seemed to tab swing-for-the-fences players with the potential to be solid NHL players or to be busts.
Phoenix grabbed Brett MacLean in the second round, Joel Gistedt later in the second, Vladimir Ruzicka Jr. in the 4th round and Maxim Goncharov in the 5th. The team swung for the fences, knowing the strikeout potential on three players who dropped in the ratings but who have intriguing potential.
In the case of MacLean, the "John Tavares effect" could be a bit overblown. In Gistedt's case, it's unusual for a 19 year old to be a starter in Sweden's Elitserien, and he handled himself well last year. With Ruzicka, it's a gamble that his performance will catch up with his considerable physical ability -- in the 4th round that's worth the gamble. And with Goncharov, you're talking about the key defensive defenseman on Russia's Under-18 gold medal winning squad.
A few years from now, perhaps none of these picks will pan out. But you won't hear me criticizing the Coyotes in hindsight, because there was justifiable reasoning behind all of the selections.
With St. Louis, I think the Blues got a potential top-six player in playmaking center Lars Eller and it will be intriguing to see him continue to develop alongside goal-scoring linemate Simon Hjalmarsson, whom the Blues picked in the second round.
I know there were some gripes about the Ian Cole pick, but he was rock solid for the US Under-18 team. Also the fact that Dave Poulin recruited him to Notre Dame plus the fact Jarmo Kekäläinen (who likes to take college bound players) recommended the Blues move up to get Cole says a lot about the character everyone says he possesses in spades. A lot of NHL teams were hoping to swipe Cole higher than some of his projections.
With the David Perron pick -- as with Hjalmarsson -- the Blues are hoping his lower-level goal scoring prowess translates to the higher levels and makes up for size deficiencies. I'd always rather see a team do that than try to feed their third or fourth line early in the draft. Lastly, I liked the mixture of players through the rounds: guys from the USHL with the chance to develop further in college, some players who are physical, some who are finesse oriented.
Let's talk about Chicago's picks next: After the Patrick Kane pick, the Hawks showed a willingness to swing for the fences and risk three-pitch strikeouts.
Billy Sweatt may be one of the fastest skaters in the draft, but he lacks finishing prowess. That's something that usually doesn't change much down the road.
The Hawks then drafted one of the draft's ultimate high risk picks in Akim Aliu and followed it up by rolling the dice on Maxime Tanguay, who is sometimes dismissed as a one-dimensional (and inconsistent) offensive talent but also has some home run potential.
That's a lot of gambling, but if even one of these three guys pans out, it could be worthwhile.
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In terms of the Flyers, my early impression is that they over-focused on size and left higher upside players on the board.
While I personally preferred Kyle Turris to James vanRiemsdyk, there was justification for choosing either player. I have absolutely no problem with it and am confident vanRiemsdyk will someday reward the Philadelphia's faith in him.
The Flyers traded up to get into the second round and chose big bruising defenseman Kevin Marshall of the Lewiston MAINEiacs. While I had heard from other teams' scouts that his upside is that of a 5th or 6th NHL defenseman, he seems to have a lot intangibles in place.
Nevertheless, with at least a half-dozen higher ceiling defensemen -- PK Subban, Colby Cohen, Teddy Ruth, Mark Katic, Yannick Weber, Corbin McPherson -- still on the board, I would have rather seen the Flyers aim a little higher than Marshall on upside if they were going to move up for a defenseman. The Flyers' defense (Shane Kenney, Jason Beckett, Ian Forbes) picks in the second round over the last dozen years haven't panned out, so they are due for one to work out. Hopefully, Marshall will be the one.
In the third round, the Flyers opted for a heavyweight enforcer in Garrett Klotz. I'm not a fan of trying to feed your fourth line while it's still relatively early in the draft. There were still a host of intriguing forwards on the board whom I personally preferred to Klotz.
Available forwards with higher NHL upside than Klotz include small but skilled Rimouski Oceanic center Maxime Tanguay (picked 69th overall by Chicago), free-falling Swiss prospect Luca Cunti (originally pegged a possible late first-rounder, he slipped all the way to 75th, where Tampa grabbed him), Harvard University-bound American high school player Alex Killorn (tabbed two picks after Cunti by Tampa Bay), undersized but talented Belleville Bulls winger Bryan Cameron (chosen 82 overall by Los Angeles), Calgary Hitman center Brett Sonne (an emerging offensive talent picked by 85th overall by the Blues), two-way Swedish center Joakim Andersson (a virtual Samuel Påhlsson clone selected by Detroit with the 88th overall pick), power forward prospect Justin Vaive (chosen 92nd overall by Anaheim), and highly skilled Russian winger Maksim Mayorov (picked 94th overall by Columbus)
Prior to the Draft, I also heard good things about the talent ceiling of Victoria Grizzlies (BCHL) forward Jamie Benn, who ended up going to Dallas all the way down in the fifth round of the draft with the 129th overall pick. One Western Conference scout called Benn "the steal of the draft [with] all the tools to be an impact player" in the NHL. The main thing with Benn is that, as a Junior A product, he has yet to play against high level of competition, although it should be noted that fellow BCHL player Turris went third overall this year. An intriguing prospect from the major junior ranks that the Flyers bypassed is small but thick-framed winger Dale Mitchell, who went to Toronto in the 3rd round (74th overall) after racking up 43 goals in the OHL for Oshawa this past season.
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If the Flyers guessed correctly on Klotz, he can be a feared fourth line player in the NHL. While I think it's still desirable for teams to have a legit enforcer, I'd personally rather swing and miss on any of the aforementioned players with a potential chance to play in my top six or at least top nine forwards someday than go for a big-bodied enforcer type who may become my 12th or 13th forward if he maximizes his potential. The third round is just too early to take an enforcer unless you think he's the second coming of Bob Probert. Maybe that's what Klotz will become someday, but the odds of that are low.
With the fifth-round selection of Mario Kempe (a Modo Hockey product now playing in the Quebec League), the Flyers took a late '88 forward with good wheels. Although still rather raw, he showed flashes of offensive ability at both the J20 SuperElit level last year and in the Q this year.
He's far from a sure bet to play in the NHL, but at this point in the draft, it's worth taking a flier (no pun intended). The way Kempe
fearlessly drives to the net and explodes with bursts of speed reminds me a little of a much smaller version of the young Mikael Renberg.
I don't know much as of yet about 6th-round pick Patrick Maroon other than his vital stats and that he's supposed to be a very gifted finisher who lacks skating ability and has conditioning issues. Passed over in last year's NHL draft, at 6-4, 225 he is another in the series of huge frame players the Flyers chose, but I don't know much about his other playing qualities.
Philly then closed out the draft with Notre Dame University bound US national development team goalie Brad Phillips. Like Kent Patterson (selected in the fourth round by Colorado), Phillips has drawn some comparisons to Ryan Miller and in what was generally considered a weak year for goalies, some scouts thought Phillips could be one of the guys to someday emerge from the pack.
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Clubs that, at first impression, I think quietly put together a string of soundly-reasoned picks were Montreal, Colorado and San Jose. I'd say there's an above-average shot at getting two or more future NHL regulars from this draft.
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Gatineau center Paul Byron, selected in the 6th round by Buffalo, is the smallest player in terms of height/weight that I can recall in a long, long time. He stands a listed 5-8 and weighs just 135 to 140 pounds. But he was also skilled and competitive enough to play on a line with Flyers' 2006 first rounder Claude Giroux at tiems this season. It would really fun to see Byron make it, even though the odds are against it being that small.
No surprise that Ilya Antonovsky was not drafted this year, given 1) the trend to avoid picking Russians whenever possible, 2) the fact he played at a lower level this year in Russia, and 3) his lack of exposure in international tournaments. But if the defenseman plays in the RSL (or as rumored, the CHL) next year and brings anything resembling the offensive prowess he showed with Vastom, I expect him to be selected in 2008.
I was a bit surprised that Jaro Lehterä went undrafted. His skating deficiences really seemed to sour teams on the overager, but one NHL scout had told me flat out weeks prior to the draft that he expected some team to take a flier on the Finn.
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