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Nurse Addition Changes the Dynamic in Edmonton |
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Not enough forwards.
I said that over, and over, and over before the NHL draft. And I am right: The Oilers as an organization lack quality prospect forwards. Perhaps their best "prospects" up front are Magnus Paajarvi and Anton Lander. Lander will be the 4th line center for the Oilers this season, and I received a text message from a source last night suggesting Paajarvi will be moved this summer. He's not MacT's kind of guy, apparently.
Oilers management at the draft more or less admitted by their actions that the team is starving for young forwards. They turned two - 2nd round picks into a stack of 3rd and 4th round picks. In total, the Oilers drafted ten players on June 30th, and eight of them were forwards.
I was shocked when Darnell Nurse was selected. I thought there was no way in a million years the Oilers would take a D man when they already have seven quality D prospects (Klefbom, Fedun, Marincin, Gernat, Musil, Davidson and Simpson) at various stages of development. Without Nurse, the Oilers future at D looked pretty good.
So why draft him?
A few reasons. The main one? He brings something no other Oilers D prospect can: Functional toughness. Someone like David Musil is tough enough. He'll likely become a 5/6 defender for the Oilers in the future. But is he "functional"? Not really.
Darnell Nurse is going to become a Top 4 defenseman who can function in all situations. He's also huge and mean. Great level of compete. Great attitude. Out of any defenseman available on June 30th, Nurse is the guy people said had the greatest chance of turning into Chris Pronger. That's a very attractive thing if you're the Edmonton Oilers.
Here's another thing I've been thinking about. Let's give Oscar Klefbom a year of development in the AHL. We'll project him NHL-ready for 2014. Let's give Nurse two years to prepare. We'll project him NHL ready in 2015. So what does the Oilers D look like from there?
Nurse - Justin Schultz
Klefbom - Petry
I love it. Two big brutes who can play defense; two quality puck movers. The future looks incredible for the Oilers on D.
But this changes things. In a big, big, big way.
Ladislav Smid and Nick Schultz will become disposable. I believe of the Oilers prospects, you could see a third defensive pairing by 2015/2016 of Martin Marincin + Martin Gernat. Both huge. Both can skate. Nurse, Klefbom, Marincin and Gernat are all going to be huge when they fill out and develop. The Oilers D will be very scary to play against.
So the other four guys outside of Petry and JSchultz aren't going to be here in a few years. Keep that in mind.
The world is going crazy. Tyler Seguin was moved today. If you can hear over the sound of the crying puck bunnies, you'll realize every team in the Western Conference is working hard to get immediately better.
Well, almost every team. Why did we fire Steve Tambellini and replace him with MacT?
I've been giving Craig MacTavish a very hard time on here and on Twitter, but the truth is, he's doing the exact same thing I'd be doing right now. Well, maybe not moving Paajarvi, but otherwise. Why do I agree?
I've said this 100 times now: The Oilers aren't there yet. They have a full additional season of hardcore sucking still left to do. They still need to rid themselves of so much deadwood. It makes absolutely no sense to blow the budget on free agents who won't be here when this team is "good".
Here's what I do if I'm Craig MacTavish tomorrow. And I'm being 100% serious here, for a change.
1. Buyout Shawn Horcoff. If there's any way to do it, end the misery now.
2. Buyout Eric Belanger. He's in the process of doing this now, so it's all good.
3. Sign UFAs to complete the roster now. Go for younger UFAs that some teams may have given up on. Peter Mueller and Benoit Pouliot. This is almost like the draft. Sign a few to one and two year deals, and hopefully, you'll get a steal. Someone good enough to stick around for when this team is good.
4. Don't deal Paajarvi. Give him one more season and a chance to play in the Top 6 for one season.
5. Let Klefbom start the year in the AHL, unless he really looks NHL ready.
6. If he is ready, move one of NSchultz or Smid. Smid is probably the better player and has a better contract...He could bring back a better younger forward in a deal, but like I said, the team for now needs him more than Nick Schultz.
7. Deal Ales Hemsky for a younger 3rd line winger with size and can hit. Some offense is nice if possible. But definitely, get someone who fits into the roster age-wise.
So let's say this is what the Oilers look like after Friday's UFA situation:
L1: Hall - Nugent-Hopkins - Eberle
L2: Paajarvi - Gagner - Yakupov
L3: Benoit Pouliot - Peter Mueller - Player Brought in with Ales Hemsky trade
L4: Smyth (final year) - Lander - Eager (give him a chance at least)
D1: Smid/Petry
D2: NSchultz - JSchultz
D3: Belov - Gilbert (brought in cheap as a UFA)
G1: Dubnyk
G2: Any UFA good enough to be a back up for a few seasons
This team will suck. I know it. You know it. We all know it. Will finish as bad as 2012/2013. It's okay. This is going to take time.
You all need to keep something in mind: The Oilers Top 6 listed above has an average age of about 22. The core of the Oilers D when the team will be good is Nurse, Klefbom, JSchultz and Petry. Dubnyk might be the right goalie, or we'll replace him by the time the team is good. The Oilers will have 10-12 of the twelve pieces they need to be considered a great team.
Patience.
We all need to be patient. Things are coming together correctly. The Oilers have a great head coach in Dallas Eakins. The roster inches closer year-by-year to having the 12 core players every contending team needs.
The Oilers could go UFA crazy; could make a stack of deals...but the solution is and always will be thru the draft.
As much as I didn't expect Nurse or think he was the best player available, there's absolutely no question that his addition makes the Oilers a better team. There's no question he fits in well to the future.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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