About this time last year, I wrote a blog hollering for the Canes to step up and sign Alexander Semin to a 1-year deal while the rest of the NHL was chasing supposedly better options. Over the next 14-15 hours, I got taken out to the wood shed via comments and even a decent number of emails and HockeyBuzz messages. After about 15 hours of verbal abuse, the Carolina Hurricanes announced that they had signed Alexander Semin to a 1-year $7M deal. Alexander Semin went on to become a key component of probably the best even strength line in hockey. Before you try to tell me I am overstating this, go pick a line and tell me how they were better at even strength. At even strength, Tlusty/EStaal/Semin had 43 goals and 64 assists and was a combined plus 34 on a team that imploded. (Note that they were atop the NHL in plus/minus before Cam Ward was injured and the season imploded.)
There are a limited number of players who even have the potential to be truly elite in the NHL. There are no guarantees with 18-year-olds, but the top portion of the 2013 offers multiple who skill-wise are very high probabilities to have this potential. When you get a chance to add a player who could very quickly be in the elite category, you do so.
Quick baseball analogy. Canes are down in a playoff series right now by virtue of missing the playoffs in 4 consecutive years. But they have bases loaded, 2 outs, down 3 in the 9th inning. They just got a fast ball right over the middle of the plate. Shame on them if they take the "safe" route and try to hit a single up the middle to plate a run or 2 to kick the can forward. When the opportunity presents itself to hit a game-winning home run, you have to take it.
There are 2 wild cards in my final rankings below:
1) The trade possibility. I am on record as willing to consider trading down only a little bit if you get a top-tier defenseman in return.
2) Team scouting rankings. It is possibly though seemingly unlikely as a consensus on the top 5 seems to be forming that the Canes draft different not because of risk but different evaluations.
I vote strongly against overweighting safety. This is a path to mediocrity where you settle for okay, contributing players instead of reaching for difference-makers.
My final rankings go like this:
1-Seth Jones. He might be the best defensive prospect since Chris Pronger. If the mental maneuvering that has happened since the draft lottery (when Jones was the clear #1) somehow leaves Jones available at #5, you just seize the opportunity and take him with no second thoughts.
2-Nathan MacKinnon. Seemingly the best franchise player potential at forward.
3-Alexander Barkov. Look how teams like Bos Chi, Det and Pit are built. They are incredibly strong at center not with scorers but with 2-way players who win. Barkov is exactly of this mold.
4-Valeri Nichushkin. I am torn on Barkov vs. Nichushkin, but give the slight nod to center. It is about going for great not settling for good (even if it includes a measure of safety). Per my comments above, going for decent and safe is a path to mediocrity.
5-Elias Lindholm. He is again a 2-way center with offensive upside.
6-Jonathan Drouin. I am almost inclined to drop him further. Maybe I am just too impacted by the Boychuk situation (yes I realize that he was not rated nearly so high) and even to some degree the struggles of undersized but immensely skilled Jeff Skinner rounding out his 2-way game. I worry that Drouin looks more like a scorer than a playoff team winner. There is a difference.
7-Sean Monahan. In a deep draft, a team will be very lucky to get someone of this quality at #7 or #8. IF the Canes think he is "better" than the other options, then he makes sense at #5. But IF, the Canes pick him because he is "safer" I strongly disagree. A couple things jump out at me with regard to Monahan. I have heard exactly no one suggesting that he is as good or better than the other top guys - MacKinnon, Barkov, etc. His name comes into play only as a #5 who is safer than Nichushkin (safer not better) whereas I read in multiple places that Nichushkin could be the most talented player in the draft. I have also seen a few mentions of Monahan needing to improve his skating which is a concern trying to transition to a much faster game from juniors.
So the shorter version: With a high pick in an incredibly strong draft, the Canes should go for great not settle for safe.
For a quick heads up when I post a Canes blog or to be included in the occasional Twitter banter follow me at CarolinaMatt63.
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