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Cap issues going forward?

With the Canucks now eliminated from the playoffs, I think we all agree that they have a tough summer ahead. They will have to decide if they still want Vigneault as a coach, if they still want Gillis as a GM, and they’ll have to decide which players to keep and which ones to get rid of. But most of all they’ll have to figure out how to get under the salary cap for next year. This is what I’m going to try to analyze right now.

Let’s look at the lineup for next year based on the players that are currently signed with the team:

Forwards

Daniel Sedin
Henrik Sedin
Ryan Kesler
David Booth
Alex Burrows
Chris Higgins
Jannik Hansen
Zack Kassian

Defensemen

Kevin Bieksa
Jason Garrison
Dan Hamhuis
Alexander Edler
Keith Ballard

Goaltenders

Roberto Luongo
Cory Schneider

This means 15 players for a total cap space of 62.9 million.

With the cap space at $64.3 million, this leaves the Canucks with $1.4 million to sign 8 players to fill out the roster. That is obviously impossible. As such, the Canucks desperately need more cap space. Let’s pretend that Vancouver is able to get rid of Luongo during the summer. This frees up $5.3 millions on the cap. We’re now down to $57.6 millions for 14 players, leaving Vancouver with $6.6 millions left on the cap to sign 9 players. That’s an average of $733,000 per player. This is obviously still not enough cap space.

Now let’s go ahead and buy out Keith Ballard’s contract. This frees up another $4.2 millions. Now down to $53.4 millions for 13 players, which leaves Vancouver with $10.9 millions to sign 10 players. That is still only an average of $1.1 millions per player. Is it really feasible to think the Canucks can fill 10 spots on their roster with this average? I don’t think so.

Let’s go ahead and also buy out David Booth’s contract. That’s $4.25 millions coming off the books. We are now down to $49.2 millions for 12 players, which leaves Vancouver with $15.2 millions to sign 11 players. This gets them to an average annual salary of $1.4 million per player.

So, even by getting rid of Luongo, Booth and Ballard, the Canucks are STILL having cap space issues. Does this leave any doubt that those 3 players will be gone before the start of next season? Does it also leave any doubt that the Canucks won’t be able to afford any decent free agent this summer? You can already say goodbye to Derek Roy because he’s not signing with Vancouver this summer.

Now, let’s go ahead and make some projections.

Let’s pretend that the Canucks decide to give the No.2 spot to Eddie Lack ($750,000). Let’s also pretend that the Canucks decide to resign Max Lapierre for $1.5 million (he would no doubt get that amount as a free agent). Then let’s fill out the backend with Frank Corrado ($600,000) and signing RFA Chris Tanev for $1.5 million (if Alberts is worth $1.2, then Tanev deserves at LEAST $1.5). Now, you need to fill some forward spots.

Since the Canucks don’t have much cap space, this seems like the perfect time to go young and give some of your prospects a chance to shine. Give the 3rd line center spot to Brendan Gaunce and let him develop there for a few years like you did with Kesler when he started with the Canucks. Pair him up with Nicklas Jensen on that 3rd line and maybe Zach Kassian and you’ve got a nice « Kid line ». This worked out pretty good for the Habs since the Eller – Galchenyuk – Gallagher line has been the Habs best line late in the season. Ottawa also had a nice « kid » line with Silfverberg and Zibanejad this year.

You can also probably sign Mason Raymond and Dale Weise back at $2.5 and $700,000 respectively and you now have your regular 12 forwards, 6 d-men and 2 goalies. This leaves you with $5.6 million to fill out the 7th and 8th d-men slot and the 13th forward spot. This can be any number of guys for around 1 million or less each. Schroeder, Alberts, Barker, Pinizzotto, Sestito or any other spare player from around the league. You are then left with a 23-man roster and about $2-2.5 million left in cap space in case you need it for something. Of course, you also have the option to not sign a guy like Mason Raymond and use that money along with the rest of the money left to try and sign a free agent.

In any case, this little exercise clearly highlights the fact that Vancouver is NOT in a good position for next year. Regardless of the fact that they might need to do some major moves because of their poor performances in the last 2 playoffs, simply going for the status quo will still be a challenge because of the cap issues. As such, I think we’re going to see one of the busiest Canucks summer we’ve had in a while and it’ll certainly be very interesting.

Eric Farand


Thanks Eric

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Well that's a wrap.

Ian


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